0x841f…bbd0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x841ff7664a363a502639fb6eab10724d5fa1bbd0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-10.9pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

42% @ 53.0¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

133

Avg size

$135

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (14/31)	-1%	31
Politics	69% (11/16)	-0%	16
Sports	40% (2/5)	-1%	5
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+8%	5
Tech	50% (1/2)	+31%	2
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other31 bets
Hit rate
45% (14/31)
ROI
-1%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
69% (11/16)
ROI
-0%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+8%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+31%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 33/61

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$500	84.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	$100	68.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Rural" during his Midterm Rally in Montana?	Yes	$100	66.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Healthcare" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Montana?	Yes	$100	65.5¢	Won
Spread: Arizona State (-20.5)	Arizona State	$100	52.0¢	Lost
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois	Air Force	$7.0k	98.0¢	Won
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$22	25.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$102	50.0¢	Won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5	Yes	$101	53.0¢	Won
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	No	$458	75.9¢	Won
Maryland vs. Nebraska	Nebraska	$500	87.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$54	27.1¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$98	49.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$502	89.2¢	Won
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)	Los Angeles Sparks	$49	49.0¢	Won
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators	Florida Gators	$100	87.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$516	86.0¢	Won
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	No	$100	53.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$3.5k	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$320	80.0¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?	Yes	$180	60.0¢	Won
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5	No	$54	54.0¢	Won
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$82	41.0¢	Lost
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada?	No	$69	68.0¢	Lost
Will Dave and Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$84	80.0¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$107	26.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims)	Azamat Bekoev	$250	86.9¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$72	35.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$4.0k	84.8¢	Won
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$67	66.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$282	67.0¢	Lost
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$503	87.2¢	Won
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	$110	27.5¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?	No	$100	81.9¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	$1.1k	81.4¢	Won
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?	No	$100	60.0¢	Won
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers	Nebraska Cornhuskers	$1.4k	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$848	84.8¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?	Yes	$20	17.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$65	75.0¢	Lost
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5	Yes	$15	45.3¢	Lost
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes	Nebraska Cornhuskers	$248	64.7¢	Lost
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	$101	54.7¢	Lost
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5	No	$101	55.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	Yes	$103	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" this week?	Yes	$116	62.8¢	Lost
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	$300	74.0¢	Lost
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	$4.7k	99.2¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$500 @ 84.7¢
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Won
Yes$100 @ 68.7¢
Will Trump say "Rural" during his Midterm Rally in Montana?Lost
Yes$100 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump say "Healthcare" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Montana?Won
Yes$100 @ 65.5¢
Spread: Arizona State (-20.5)Lost
Arizona State$100 @ 52.0¢
Air Force vs. Northern IllinoisWon
Air Force$7.0k @ 98.0¢
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$22 @ 25.8¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$102 @ 50.0¢
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Won
Yes$101 @ 53.0¢
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$458 @ 75.9¢
Maryland vs. NebraskaWon
Nebraska$500 @ 87.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$54 @ 27.1¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$98 @ 49.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$502 @ 89.2¢
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Won
Los Angeles Sparks$49 @ 49.0¢
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida GatorsLost
Florida Gators$100 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$516 @ 86.0¢
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?Lost
No$100 @ 53.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$320 @ 80.0¢
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$180 @ 60.0¢
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5Won
No$54 @ 54.0¢
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$82 @ 41.0¢
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada?Lost
No$69 @ 68.0¢
Will Dave and Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$84 @ 80.0¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$107 @ 26.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims)Lost
Azamat Bekoev$250 @ 86.9¢
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$72 @ 35.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$4.0k @ 84.8¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
No$67 @ 66.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$282 @ 67.0¢
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$503 @ 87.2¢
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Lost
Yes$110 @ 27.5¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?Lost
No$100 @ 81.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 81.4¢
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 60.0¢
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska CornhuskersWon
Nebraska Cornhuskers$1.4k @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$848 @ 84.8¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?Lost
Yes$20 @ 17.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$65 @ 75.0¢
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5Lost
Yes$15 @ 45.3¢
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa HawkeyesLost
Nebraska Cornhuskers$248 @ 64.7¢
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?Lost
No$101 @ 54.7¢
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5Won
No$101 @ 55.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?Lost
Yes$103 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" this week?Lost
Yes$116 @ 62.8¢
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$300 @ 74.0¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Won
No$4.7k @ 99.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	64.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1000	62.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$500	89.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$39	39.3¢
Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$6	3.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 64.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 62.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$500 @ 89.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$39 @ 39.3¢
Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027?Crypto
Yes$6 @ 3.0¢