0x841f…bbd0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x841ff7664a363a502639fb6eab10724d5fa1bbd0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-16.4pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

45% @ 61.0¢

Brier

0.223

Resolved

Avg size

$199

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	20% (2/10)	-3%	10
Politics	83% (5/6)	+22%	6
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+15%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+100%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-3%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+15%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 10/20

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$102	50.0¢	Won
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	No	$458	75.9¢	Won
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	No	$100	53.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$3.5k	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$320	80.0¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$107	26.0¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$72	35.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$4.0k	84.8¢	Won
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$67	66.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$282	67.0¢	Lost
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$503	87.2¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?	No	$100	81.9¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	$1.1k	81.4¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?	Yes	$20	17.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$65	75.0¢	Lost
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes	Nebraska Cornhuskers	$248	64.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$98	49.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$502	89.2¢	Won
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$82	41.0¢	Lost

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$102 @ 50.0¢
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$458 @ 75.9¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?Lost
No$100 @ 53.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$320 @ 80.0¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$107 @ 26.0¢
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$72 @ 35.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$4.0k @ 84.8¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
No$67 @ 66.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$282 @ 67.0¢
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$503 @ 87.2¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?Lost
No$100 @ 81.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 81.4¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?Lost
Yes$20 @ 17.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$65 @ 75.0¢
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa HawkeyesLost
Nebraska Cornhuskers$248 @ 64.7¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$98 @ 49.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$502 @ 89.2¢
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$82 @ 41.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$39	39.3¢
Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027?	—	Yes	$6	3.0¢

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$39 @ 39.3¢
Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027?—
Yes$6 @ 3.0¢