← Smart money
0x841f…bbd0
ProfitableEdge
-16.4pp
ROI
+7%
Win rate
45% @ 61.0¢
Brier
0.223
Resolved
56
Avg size
$199
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 20% (2/10) | -3% | 10 |
| Politics | 83% (5/6) | +22% | 6 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +15% | 2 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +100% | 1 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other10 bets
- Hit rate
- 20% (2/10)
- ROI
- -3%
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 83% (5/6)
- ROI
- +22%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +15%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +100%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
50% hit · 10/20- Yes$102 @ 50.0¢
- No$458 @ 75.9¢
- No$100 @ 53.0¢
- No$3.5k @ 88.0¢
- No$320 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$107 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$72 @ 35.5¢
- No$4.0k @ 84.8¢
- No$67 @ 66.0¢
- No$282 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$503 @ 87.2¢
- No$100 @ 81.9¢
- No$1.1k @ 81.4¢
- Yes$20 @ 17.3¢
- No$65 @ 75.0¢
- Nebraska Cornhuskers$248 @ 64.7¢
- Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
- Yes$98 @ 49.0¢
- No$502 @ 89.2¢
- Yes$82 @ 41.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Geopolitics | Yes | $365 | 73.0¢ |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? | — | No | $258 | 86.0¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | — | No | $191 | 95.7¢ |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | Sports | Yes | $128 | 25.6¢ |
| Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | Politics | Yes | $82 | 41.0¢ |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Politics | No | $39 | 39.3¢ |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in July? | — | No | $4 | 80.0¢ |
| Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027? | — | Yes | $1 | 3.0¢ |
- Yes$365 @ 73.0¢
- No$258 @ 86.0¢
- No$191 @ 95.7¢
- Yes$128 @ 25.6¢
- Yes$82 @ 41.0¢
- No$39 @ 39.3¢
- No$4 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 3.0¢