0x83c5…e193

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x83c56c56bc67c0b99b38abd1c0a3c1aca7a7e193
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.8pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

53% @ 44.7¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

4697

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (421/770)	+21%	770
Sports	49% (34/69)	-3%	69
Politics	59% (38/64)	+21%	64
Culture	60% (6/10)	-12%	10
Tech	29% (2/7)	-77%	7
Geopolitics	50% (3/6)	+33%	6
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other770 bets
Hit rate
55% (421/770)
ROI
+21%
Sports69 bets
Hit rate
49% (34/69)
ROI
-3%
Politics64 bets
Hit rate
59% (38/64)
ROI
+21%
Culture10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
-12%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-77%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+33%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 504/927

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	Yes	$415	51.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$135	67.3¢	Won
Miami Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jaqueline Cristian	Ekaterina Alexandrova	$22	55.0¢	Lost
Miami Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jaqueline Cristian	Jaqueline Cristian	$35	88.3¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Commander-in-Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	$36	12.0¢	Lost
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30?	No	$43	63.2¢	Lost
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	$43	77.9¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$14	46.0¢	Won
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?	Yes	$59	19.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?	No	$30	59.0¢	Won
Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?	No	$9	85.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Stagflation" this week? (February 8)	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$10	17.0¢	Won
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	No	$191	49.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$92	65.4¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$370	64.9¢	Won
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	No	$22	10.5¢	Lost
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$22	67.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Autopen" this week? (March 8)	Yes	$71	59.2¢	Won
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?	No	$12	62.0¢	Won
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?	No	$6	53.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Stock Market" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	$116	77.3¢	Won
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$3	63.0¢	Won
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Where are you" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	$25	41.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$429	85.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$286	51.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?	No	$45	75.3¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$77	77.3¢	Won
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina Grant	Tyra Caterina Grant	$16	26.0¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?	Yes	$20	68.0¢	Won
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?	Yes	$28	55.0¢	Won
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	No	$348	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	Yes	$53	36.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	No	$122	70.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ozempic" or "Fat shot" during healthcare event?	No	$29	48.3¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$24	24.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?	No	$30	30.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	No	$22	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$46	46.0¢	Lost
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$122	84.0¢	Won
Will JD Vance say "Prescription Drug" in Wisconsin on Thursday?	Yes	$57	38.0¢	Won
Sao Leopoldo: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Joaquin Aguilar	Joaquin Aguilar	$37	20.2¢	Lost
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30?	Yes	$48	46.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Insane" during National Agriculture Day events?	No	$62	54.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Insane" during National Agriculture Day events?	Yes	$65	56.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$198	24.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$125	33.1¢	Lost
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	No	$206	71.0¢	Won

Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?Lost
Yes$415 @ 51.6¢
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?Won
Yes$135 @ 67.3¢
Miami Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jaqueline CristianLost
Ekaterina Alexandrova$22 @ 55.0¢
Miami Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jaqueline CristianWon
Jaqueline Cristian$35 @ 88.3¢
Will Leavitt say "Commander-in-Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
No$36 @ 12.0¢
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30?Lost
No$43 @ 63.2¢
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?Won
Yes$43 @ 77.9¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$14 @ 46.0¢
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$59 @ 19.7¢
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?Won
No$30 @ 59.0¢
Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?Won
No$9 @ 85.3¢
Will Trump say "Stagflation" this week? (February 8)Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
No$10 @ 17.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?Lost
No$191 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?Won
Yes$92 @ 65.4¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$370 @ 64.9¢
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?Lost
No$22 @ 10.5¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$22 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump say "Autopen" this week? (March 8)Won
Yes$71 @ 59.2¢
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?Won
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?Won
No$6 @ 53.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Stock Market" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
No$116 @ 77.3¢
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$3 @ 63.0¢
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump say "Where are you" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Won
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?Won
No$25 @ 41.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$429 @ 85.8¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$286 @ 51.2¢
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?Won
No$45 @ 75.3¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$77 @ 77.3¢
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina GrantLost
Tyra Caterina Grant$16 @ 26.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?Won
Yes$20 @ 68.0¢
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?Won
Yes$28 @ 55.0¢
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?Won
No$348 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Lost
Yes$53 @ 36.4¢
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Won
No$122 @ 70.6¢
Will Trump say "Ozempic" or "Fat shot" during healthcare event?Won
No$29 @ 48.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Lost
No$30 @ 30.0¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Won
No$22 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
Yes$46 @ 46.0¢
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$122 @ 84.0¢
Will JD Vance say "Prescription Drug" in Wisconsin on Thursday?Won
Yes$57 @ 38.0¢
Sao Leopoldo: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Joaquin AguilarLost
Joaquin Aguilar$37 @ 20.2¢
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30?Won
Yes$48 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump say "Insane" during National Agriculture Day events?Won
No$62 @ 54.8¢
Will Trump say "Insane" during National Agriculture Day events?Lost
Yes$65 @ 56.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$198 @ 24.8¢
Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
Yes$125 @ 33.1¢
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
No$206 @ 71.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$368	45.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$318	63.6¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$298	74.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$265	66.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$244	54.2¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$227	37.9¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$206	82.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$172	86.0¢
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Tech	No	$116	58.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$113	32.3¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$108	52.3¢
ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	Tech	Yes	$95	23.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	No	$92	92.0¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?	—	No	$84	46.9¢
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$82	91.1¢
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	Tech	No	$80	80.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$78	31.2¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	No	$67	44.7¢
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Politics	No	$63	94.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$61	61.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$59	86.9¢
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Tech	No	$58	58.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$56	14.0¢
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Sports	Yes	$54	54.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$54	27.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$46	46.0¢
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	No	$45	89.0¢
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau?	Culture	Yes	$44	73.4¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$38	54.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$34	68.0¢

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$368 @ 45.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$318 @ 63.6¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$298 @ 74.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$265 @ 66.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$244 @ 54.2¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$227 @ 37.9¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$206 @ 82.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$172 @ 86.0¢
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
No$116 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$113 @ 32.3¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$108 @ 52.3¢
ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?Tech
Yes$95 @ 23.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
No$92 @ 92.0¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?—
No$84 @ 46.9¢
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$82 @ 91.1¢
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?Tech
No$80 @ 80.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$78 @ 31.2¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
No$67 @ 44.7¢
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?Politics
No$63 @ 94.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$61 @ 61.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$59 @ 86.9¢
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
No$58 @ 58.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
No$56 @ 14.0¢
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Sports
Yes$54 @ 54.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$54 @ 27.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$46 @ 46.0¢
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
No$45 @ 89.0¢
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau?Culture
Yes$44 @ 73.4¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$38 @ 54.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$34 @ 68.0¢