0x83a1…1029

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x83a171177d847b0ed6832249c5e7789587df1029
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.8pp

ROI

+179%

Win rate

23% @ 9.8¢

Brier

0.144

Resolved

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	18% (10/57)	+182%	57
Politics	14% (1/7)	-17%	7
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+41%	1

Other57 bets
Hit rate
18% (10/57)
ROI
+182%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-17%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+41%

Track record

18% hit · 12/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$20	13.9¢	Lost
Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$5	37.0¢	Lost
Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$5	23.2¢	Lost
Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$5	47.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$5	44.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$10	21.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	$20	19.0¢	Lost
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	$10	16.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$8	1.3¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$4	1.1¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$11	17.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?	No	$5	3.3¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?	Yes	$5	46.4¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	2.9¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	2.8¢	Lost
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	Yes	$5	30.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?	Yes	$10	23.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	41.8¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$15	5.2¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?	Yes	$9	28.1¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$12	2.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	4.6¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	2.6¢	Lost
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?	Yes	$2	10.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	Yes	$9	23.2¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?	Yes	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 3?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$8	71.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$3	1.9¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	20.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$4	2.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	Yes	$7	2.4¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$40	7.4¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will "Bitcoin" be said at the Grammys?	Yes	$1	1.9¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$8	3.2¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	0.8¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$20 @ 13.9¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$5 @ 37.0¢
Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.2¢
Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 44.0¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$10 @ 21.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Lost
No$20 @ 19.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Lost
No$5 @ 14.0¢
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.3¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 17.6¢
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?Won
No$5 @ 3.3¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 46.4¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.8¢
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 30.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.6¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 41.8¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.2¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.2¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 28.1¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.6¢
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 23.2¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$8 @ 71.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?Won
Yes$5 @ 20.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.4¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Won
Yes$40 @ 7.4¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will "Bitcoin" be said at the Grammys?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.2¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Won
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Politics	No	$40	31.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$35	17.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Geopolitics	No	$20	21.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$10	9.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$5	35.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Politics	Yes	$5	12.0¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
No$40 @ 31.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$35 @ 17.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 21.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
Yes$10 @ 9.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?Politics
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢