0x8341…de89

Specialization by sphere

• Other294 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (142/294)

  ROI

  +24%

• Politics3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  +45%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +45%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $170B by September 30?Won
  No$240 @ 91.0¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $245B by September 30?Won
  No$170 @ 94.0¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $270B by September 30?Won
  No$226 @ 95.0¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by September 30?Won
  No$490 @ 93.9¢
• Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Won
  Yes$431 @ 52.2¢
• India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Won
  No$138 @ 67.1¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$372 @ 62.0¢
• Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
  No$23 @ 27.0¢
• Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Won
  Yes$58 @ 73.0¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
  Yes$460 @ 18.4¢
• Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
  No$988 @ 38.4¢
• Will Trump say "China" 7+ times during his AI speech on July 23?Won
  Yes$5 @ 79.0¢
• Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Won
  Yes$215 @ 21.5¢
• Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Lost
  No$804 @ 21.2¢
• Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
  Yes$333 @ 60.0¢
• Will Joey Chestnut eat 70+ Hot Dogs? Lost
  No$0 @ 1.0¢
• Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Lost
  Yes$123 @ 16.3¢
• Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?Lost
  No$72 @ 4.9¢
• Will Trump say “God / Hell” 10+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Won
  Yes$35 @ 46.7¢
• LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)Lost
  Bilibili Gaming$80 @ 8.0¢
• Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?Won
  No$265 @ 40.5¢
• Will Trump say "Africa" 8+ times during events with South African President on May 21?Lost
  No$424 @ 39.4¢
• Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Lost
  No$338 @ 57.1¢
• Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Lost
  Yes$484 @ 53.8¢
• Nothing Ever Happens Lost
  No$49 @ 15.9¢
• Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?Lost
  Yes$120 @ 30.0¢
• Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?Lost
  Yes$208 @ 39.5¢
• Will Trump say "Tax cut" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference?Won
  No$33 @ 24.0¢
• Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Lost
  No$217 @ 12.0¢
• Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Lost
  No$62 @ 67.7¢
• Will The Washington Post have its Pentagon press pass revoked by December 31 2025?Lost
  No$26 @ 17.0¢
• Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
• National Anthem O/U 120.5 secondsWon
  Under$10 @ 55.0¢
• Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
  Yes$14 @ 69.0¢
• Will anyone say "Privacy" during the Q2 2025 Google earnings call?Won
  No$0 @ 39.0¢
• MicroStrategy purchases >4000 BTC September 2-8?Lost
  No$339 @ 30.8¢
• Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July?Won
  No$20 @ 20.0¢
• Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour?Lost
  No$242 @ 28.6¢
• Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his University of Alabama commencement speech?Won
  Yes$97 @ 24.3¢
• Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?Won
  No$54 @ 26.0¢
• Xi Jinping seen in public before August?Lost
  No$18 @ 4.0¢
• Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?Lost
  Yes$736 @ 32.5¢
• Will Trump say "Elon / Musk" during his 250th Army Anniversary remarks on June 14?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 7.0¢
• Will Trump say "McDonald's" during victory rally? Won
  No$17 @ 87.0¢
• Will Trump say "Zelensky" during conference with Putin on August 15?Lost
  No$80 @ 10.0¢
• Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Won
  No$7.7k @ 55.6¢
• Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Lost
  Yes$110 @ 11.0¢
• Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?Won
  Yes$166 @ 83.0¢
• Will the Lucknow Super Giants win the 2025 Indian Premier League?Lost
  Yes$49 @ 5.4¢
• Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Won
  No$340 @ 17.0¢

Current positions

• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
  No$1.9k @ 75.3¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
  No$1.7k @ 58.7¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
  No$1.7k @ 85.0¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 15.0¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?Tech
  No$1.4k @ 74.8¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?Tech
  No$928 @ 94.6¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$490 @ 49.0¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$400 @ 10.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$345 @ 69.0¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$345 @ 69.0¢
• Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$208 @ 23.3¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$163 @ 31.0¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?Tech
  No$68 @ 14.3¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?Tech
  No$52 @ 26.0¢