0x8247…d8cc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8247f6d658b0afe22414a12e9f6c57058a9dd8cc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.2pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

53% @ 39.8¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

3675

Avg size

$83

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (221/432)	+26%	432
Politics	60% (9/15)	+10%	15
Culture	36% (4/11)	-46%	11
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	+41%	5
Crypto	50% (2/4)	-42%	4

Other432 bets
Hit rate
51% (221/432)
ROI
+26%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
60% (9/15)
ROI
+10%
Culture11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-46%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+41%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-42%

Track record

51% hit · 239/467

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	$267	89.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$935	94.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	$168	79.0¢	Won
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross between $105m and $115m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$64	31.0¢	Lost
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5.75m?	Yes	$1.8k	39.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Won
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$173	7.3¢	Lost
Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?	No	$2.8k	78.8¢	Won
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?	Yes	$15	0.3¢	Lost
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?	No	$87	72.5¢	Won
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross between $99-108m opening weekend?	No	$520	79.9¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$1.3k	55.9¢	Won
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?	No	$6	0.5¢	Lost
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?	Yes	$2.0k	68.1¢	Won
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Thanksgiving?	No	$51	25.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Thanksgiving?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$1.5k	19.0¢	Lost
Will 'The Exorcist: Believer' gross over $28m opening weekend?	No	$203	48.8¢	Won
Will 'The Exorcist: Believer' gross over $28m opening weekend?	Yes	$7	10.0¢	Lost
Will 'Monkey Man' gross more than $16m opening weekend?	No	$149	71.0¢	Won
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	Yes	$188	13.1¢	Lost
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	No	$6.3k	83.8¢	Won
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	Yes	$717	4.1¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 61 million views on day 2?	No	$323	73.5¢	Won
Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $45m-50m opening weekend?	No	$170	85.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	79.6¢	Won
Will 'Five Nights at Freddy's' gross over $60m opening weekend?	Yes	$1.2k	72.8¢	Won
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	Yes	$2.1k	76.9¢	Won
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$9.6k	62.2¢	Won
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?	Yes	$104	6.4¢	Lost
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?	Yes	$356	62.8¢	Won
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?	Yes	$145	1.9¢	Lost
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?	No	$248	76.3¢	Lost
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?	Yes	$110	25.3¢	Won
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	$35	23.1¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	$820	44.6¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$2.0k	72.1¢	Won
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?	No	$39	5.0¢	Lost
Celestia token above $2 one week after airdrop?	No	$0	7.0¢	Lost
Will 'Napoleon' gross over $32.5m over its 5-day opening weekend?	No	$564	58.6¢	Lost
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?	Yes	$136	43.7¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times?	Yes	$86	43.0¢	Won
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?	No	$122	61.0¢	Lost
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?	Yes	$413	67.0¢	Won
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?	No	$3	10.0¢	Lost
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?	Yes	$492	51.5¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 60-79 times?	No	$747	83.0¢	Lost

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Won
Yes$267 @ 89.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
Yes$935 @ 94.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Won
Yes$168 @ 79.0¢
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross between $105m and $115m on 5-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$64 @ 31.0¢
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5.75m?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 39.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$173 @ 7.3¢
Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?Won
No$2.8k @ 78.8¢
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.3¢
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?Won
No$87 @ 72.5¢
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross between $99-108m opening weekend?Won
No$520 @ 79.9¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 55.9¢
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?Lost
No$6 @ 0.5¢
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 68.1¢
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Thanksgiving?Lost
No$51 @ 25.5¢
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Thanksgiving?Won
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 19.0¢
Will 'The Exorcist: Believer' gross over $28m opening weekend?Won
No$203 @ 48.8¢
Will 'The Exorcist: Believer' gross over $28m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$7 @ 10.0¢
Will 'Monkey Man' gross more than $16m opening weekend?Won
No$149 @ 71.0¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Lost
Yes$188 @ 13.1¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Won
No$6.3k @ 83.8¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$717 @ 4.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 61 million views on day 2?Won
No$323 @ 73.5¢
Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $45m-50m opening weekend? Lost
No$170 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 79.6¢
Will 'Five Nights at Freddy's' gross over $60m opening weekend?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 72.8¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 76.9¢
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?Won
Yes$9.6k @ 62.2¢
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?Lost
Yes$104 @ 6.4¢
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?Won
Yes$356 @ 62.8¢
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?Lost
Yes$145 @ 1.9¢
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?Lost
No$248 @ 76.3¢
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?Won
Yes$110 @ 25.3¢
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Won
Yes$35 @ 23.1¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Lost
Yes$820 @ 44.6¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 72.1¢
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?Lost
No$39 @ 5.0¢
Celestia token above $2 one week after airdrop?Lost
No$0 @ 7.0¢
Will 'Napoleon' gross over $32.5m over its 5-day opening weekend?Lost
No$564 @ 58.6¢
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?Won
Yes$136 @ 43.7¢
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times?Won
Yes$86 @ 43.0¢
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?Lost
No$122 @ 61.0¢
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?Won
Yes$413 @ 67.0¢
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?Lost
No$3 @ 10.0¢
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?Won
Yes$492 @ 51.5¢
Will Elon tweet 60-79 times?Lost
No$747 @ 83.0¢

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$4.5k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$4.5k	50.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$370	92.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$32	16.0¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$4.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$4.5k @ 50.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$370 @ 92.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$32 @ 16.0¢