0x8247…d8cc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8247f6d658b0afe22414a12e9f6c57058a9dd8cc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.3pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

51% @ 38.2¢

Brier

0.156

Resolved

3669

Avg size

$83

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (224/443)	+26%	443
Culture	39% (7/18)	+9%	18
Politics	59% (10/17)	+7%	17
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	+41%	5
Crypto	60% (3/5)	-10%	5

Other443 bets
Hit rate
51% (224/443)
ROI
+26%
Culture18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
+9%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+41%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-10%

Track record

51% hit · 247/488

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross between $105m and $115m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$64	31.0¢	Lost
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5.75m?	Yes	$1.8k	39.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Won
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$173	7.3¢	Lost
Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?	No	$2.8k	78.8¢	Won
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?	Yes	$15	0.3¢	Lost
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?	No	$87	72.5¢	Won
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross between $99-108m opening weekend?	No	$520	79.9¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Yes	$28	11.1¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$1.3k	55.9¢	Won
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?	No	$6	0.5¢	Lost
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?	Yes	$2.0k	68.1¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$1.5k	19.0¢	Lost
Will 'Monkey Man' gross more than $16m opening weekend?	No	$149	71.0¢	Won
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	Yes	$188	13.1¢	Lost
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	No	$6.3k	83.8¢	Won
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	Yes	$717	4.1¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 61 million views on day 2?	No	$323	73.5¢	Won
Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $45m-50m opening weekend?	No	$170	85.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	79.6¢	Won
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	Yes	$2.1k	76.9¢	Won
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$9.6k	62.2¢	Won
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?	Yes	$104	6.4¢	Lost
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?	Yes	$356	62.8¢	Won
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?	Yes	$145	1.9¢	Lost
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?	No	$248	76.3¢	Lost
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?	Yes	$110	25.3¢	Won
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	$35	23.1¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	$820	44.6¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$2.0k	72.1¢	Won
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?	No	$39	5.0¢	Lost
Will 'Napoleon' gross over $32.5m over its 5-day opening weekend?	No	$564	58.6¢	Lost
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?	Yes	$136	43.7¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times?	Yes	$86	43.0¢	Won
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?	No	$122	61.0¢	Lost
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?	Yes	$413	67.0¢	Won
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?	No	$3	10.0¢	Lost
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?	Yes	$492	51.5¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 60-79 times?	No	$747	83.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 60-79 times?	Yes	$296	72.1¢	Won
Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $12m?	Yes	$12	2.4¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?	No	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	Yes	$20.5k	83.6¢	Won
Will 'Smile 2' gross more than $27m opening weekend?	No	$850	86.5¢	Won
Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times?	Yes	$100	25.0¢	Lost
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend?	No	$97	75.2¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50.5 and 51.0 million views on day 6?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost

Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross between $105m and $115m on 5-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$64 @ 31.0¢
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5.75m?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 39.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$173 @ 7.3¢
Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?Won
No$2.8k @ 78.8¢
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.3¢
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?Won
No$87 @ 72.5¢
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross between $99-108m opening weekend?Won
No$520 @ 79.9¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Lost
Yes$28 @ 11.1¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 55.9¢
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?Lost
No$6 @ 0.5¢
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 68.1¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 19.0¢
Will 'Monkey Man' gross more than $16m opening weekend?Won
No$149 @ 71.0¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Lost
Yes$188 @ 13.1¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Won
No$6.3k @ 83.8¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$717 @ 4.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 61 million views on day 2?Won
No$323 @ 73.5¢
Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $45m-50m opening weekend? Lost
No$170 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 79.6¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 76.9¢
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?Won
Yes$9.6k @ 62.2¢
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?Lost
Yes$104 @ 6.4¢
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?Won
Yes$356 @ 62.8¢
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?Lost
Yes$145 @ 1.9¢
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?Lost
No$248 @ 76.3¢
Will 'The Fall Guy' gross between $24m and $28m opening weekend?Won
Yes$110 @ 25.3¢
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Won
Yes$35 @ 23.1¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Lost
Yes$820 @ 44.6¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 72.1¢
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?Lost
No$39 @ 5.0¢
Will 'Napoleon' gross over $32.5m over its 5-day opening weekend?Lost
No$564 @ 58.6¢
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?Won
Yes$136 @ 43.7¢
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times?Won
Yes$86 @ 43.0¢
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?Lost
No$122 @ 61.0¢
Will 'Wonka' gross over $35m over its opening weekend?Won
Yes$413 @ 67.0¢
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?Lost
No$3 @ 10.0¢
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?Won
Yes$492 @ 51.5¢
Will Elon tweet 60-79 times?Lost
No$747 @ 83.0¢
Will Elon tweet 60-79 times?Won
Yes$296 @ 72.1¢
Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $12m?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.4¢
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?Lost
No$6 @ 1.2¢
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?Won
Yes$20.5k @ 83.6¢
Will 'Smile 2' gross more than $27m opening weekend?Won
No$850 @ 86.5¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times?Lost
Yes$100 @ 25.0¢
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend?Won
No$97 @ 75.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50.5 and 51.0 million views on day 6?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	—	Yes	$2.3k	92.3¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	—	No	$1.5k	34.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	—	No	$1.1k	83.4¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?	—	Yes	$422	37.3¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	—	Yes	$401	44.5¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m?	Culture	Yes	$387	67.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$370	92.5¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40.5 and 41.0 million views on day 5?	—	Yes	$288	43.6¢
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?	—	Yes	$222	22.2¢
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?	—	Yes	$218	53.6¢
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?	—	No	$120	66.0¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?	—	Yes	$88	8.0¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?	—	Yes	$67	67.0¢
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Culture	Yes	$66	19.4¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	—	Yes	$62	62.2¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	Geopolitics	No	$36	12.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?	—	Yes	$36	0.6¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?	Culture	Yes	$33	20.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	—	Yes	$29	2.4¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Culture	Yes	$28	11.1¢
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?	—	Yes	$20	3.2¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	—	Yes	$20	4.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 48 million views on day 5?	—	Yes	$20	2.0¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?	—	Yes	$20	6.3¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?	Culture	Yes	$11	1.3¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 41.0 million or more views on day 5?	—	Yes	$10	1.8¢
Ethereum flipped in 2026?	Crypto	No	$10	2.0¢
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?	Culture	Yes	$8	14.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Culture	Yes	$7	6.4¢
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?	—	No	$6	1.2¢

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?—
Yes$2.3k @ 92.3¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?—
No$1.5k @ 34.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?—
No$1.1k @ 83.4¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?—
Yes$422 @ 37.3¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?—
Yes$401 @ 44.5¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m?Culture
Yes$387 @ 67.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$370 @ 92.5¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40.5 and 41.0 million views on day 5?—
Yes$288 @ 43.6¢
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?—
Yes$222 @ 22.2¢
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?—
Yes$218 @ 53.6¢
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?—
No$120 @ 66.0¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?—
Yes$88 @ 8.0¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?—
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?Culture
Yes$66 @ 19.4¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?—
Yes$62 @ 62.2¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Geopolitics
No$36 @ 12.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?—
Yes$36 @ 0.6¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?Culture
Yes$33 @ 20.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?—
Yes$29 @ 2.4¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Culture
Yes$28 @ 11.1¢
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?—
Yes$20 @ 3.2¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?—
Yes$20 @ 4.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 48 million views on day 5?—
Yes$20 @ 2.0¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?—
Yes$20 @ 6.3¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?Culture
Yes$11 @ 1.3¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 41.0 million or more views on day 5?—
Yes$10 @ 1.8¢
Ethereum flipped in 2026?Crypto
No$10 @ 2.0¢
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?Culture
Yes$8 @ 14.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Culture
Yes$7 @ 6.4¢
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?—
No$6 @ 1.2¢