0x8242…cb6e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8242222828fe3ce882b4c6e75ab5ca380ec7cb6e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.7pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

5% @ 3.2¢

Brier

0.033

Resolved

2040

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	3% (4/119)	-69%	119
Crypto	48% (12/25)	+167%	25
Tech	10% (2/20)	-30%	20
Politics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Business	33% (1/3)	+26%	3
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other119 bets
Hit rate
3% (4/119)
ROI
-69%
Crypto25 bets
Hit rate
48% (12/25)
ROI
+167%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
10% (2/20)
ROI
-30%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+26%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

11% hit · 19/174

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?	Yes	$11	1.8¢	Lost
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	$176	4.6¢	Lost
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$18	6.0¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will Lighter dip to $1.5 before 2027?	No	$21	7.0¢	Lost
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	$22	9.0¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$60	3.3¢	Lost
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	No	$48	8.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?	Yes	$49	7.0¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$286	55.3¢	Won
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?	Yes	$61	2.6¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$22	3.3¢	Lost
Will Gold close between $3400 and $3500 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$21	1.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$9	0.3¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$54	10.3¢	Lost
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$18	3.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	$62	2.9¢	Lost
OpenAI acquired in 2025?	Yes	$33	2.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$65	26.1¢	Lost
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$40	2.9¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	No	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$26	26.0¢	Won
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$26	1.7¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$36	9.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	No	$16	32.0¢	Lost
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?	Yes	$58	2.9¢	Lost
Will Google reach $375 in December?	Yes	$20	2.0¢	Lost
Will Lighter dip to $1 before 2027?	No	$18	6.0¢	Lost
Will Unit launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$17	2.1¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$5	0.6¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 660k+ BTC by December 31?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Won
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$12	0.8¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Yes	$37	4.7¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$38	2.7¢	Lost
Pump.fun all time high by December 31?	Yes	$20	2.2¢	Lost
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	$12	3.0¢	Lost
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	$48	3.5¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?	Yes	$18	2.4¢	Lost
Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?	Yes	$23	2.3¢	Lost
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?	Yes	$10	1.5¢	Won
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Yes	$16	4.1¢	Lost
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$17	21.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$47	7.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$10	0.4¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	$64	9.1¢	Lost
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?	Yes	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?	Yes	$22	1.9¢	Lost

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.8¢
GPT ads by December 31?Lost
Yes$176 @ 4.6¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$18 @ 6.0¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$14 @ 14.0¢
Will Lighter dip to $1.5 before 2027?Lost
No$21 @ 7.0¢
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 9.0¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$60 @ 3.3¢
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?Lost
No$48 @ 8.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?Lost
Yes$49 @ 7.0¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$286 @ 55.3¢
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.3¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$61 @ 2.6¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$22 @ 3.3¢
Will Gold close between $3400 and $3500 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$21 @ 1.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 10.3¢
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$18 @ 3.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?Lost
Yes$62 @ 2.9¢
OpenAI acquired in 2025?Lost
Yes$33 @ 2.2¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$65 @ 26.1¢
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$40 @ 2.9¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?Lost
No$5 @ 5.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$26 @ 26.0¢
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$26 @ 1.7¢
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 9.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?Lost
No$16 @ 32.0¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?Lost
Yes$58 @ 2.9¢
Will Google reach $375 in December?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.0¢
Will Lighter dip to $1 before 2027?Lost
No$18 @ 6.0¢
Will Unit launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$17 @ 2.1¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.6¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 660k+ BTC by December 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.8¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$37 @ 4.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$38 @ 2.7¢
Pump.fun all time high by December 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.2¢
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.0¢
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Lost
Yes$48 @ 3.5¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$18 @ 2.4¢
Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?Lost
Yes$23 @ 2.3¢
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 1.5¢
Will Meta acquire TikTok?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.1¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 21.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Lost
Yes$47 @ 7.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.4¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Lost
No$64 @ 9.1¢
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$22 @ 1.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$88	5.2¢
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$81	17.1¢
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$74	40.0¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$72	13.9¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$70	11.2¢
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$66	4.2¢
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$55	3.8¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$51	16.8¢
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$51	10.1¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$49	12.3¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Tech	OpenAI	$44	8.7¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$42	1.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$42	28.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$42	21.0¢
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$40	10.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$39	13.0¢
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$39	11.0¢
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$37	7.9¢
Will $PONS reach $1 in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$33	11.0¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$33	11.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$32	23.0¢
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?	Tech	OpenAI	$30	15.0¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$27	11.0¢
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$26	10.6¢
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$25	4.7¢
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$24	12.0¢
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$24	11.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$22	11.0¢
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$22	11.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$21	7.0¢

Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
Yes$88 @ 5.2¢
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$81 @ 17.1¢
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$74 @ 40.0¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$72 @ 13.9¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?Crypto
Yes$70 @ 11.2¢
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
Yes$66 @ 4.2¢
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
Yes$55 @ 3.8¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$51 @ 16.8¢
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$51 @ 10.1¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$49 @ 12.3¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Tech
OpenAI$44 @ 8.7¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$42 @ 1.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$42 @ 28.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$42 @ 21.0¢
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$40 @ 10.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$39 @ 13.0¢
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Politics
Yes$39 @ 11.0¢
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$37 @ 7.9¢
Will $PONS reach $1 in 2026?Crypto
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
Yes$32 @ 23.0¢
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?Tech
OpenAI$30 @ 15.0¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$27 @ 11.0¢
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?Crypto
Yes$26 @ 10.6¢
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$25 @ 4.7¢
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$24 @ 11.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
No$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$21 @ 7.0¢