0x819f…f3e7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x819f9aa2e4da899e185762e03690415ea758f3e7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.1pp

ROI

+65%

Win rate

45% @ 28.6¢

Brier

0.178

Resolved

1145

Avg size

$35

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (11/39)	+21%	39
Politics	37% (11/30)	+134%	30
Economy	33% (1/3)	-94%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other39 bets
Hit rate
28% (11/39)
ROI
+21%
Politics30 bets
Hit rate
37% (11/30)
ROI
+134%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-94%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 23/73

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$1.1k	6.5¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$51	78.9¢	Lost
Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun	Connecticut Sun	$2	35.0¢	Lost
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx	Las Vegas Aces	$76	37.0¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$1.1k	29.8¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$1.5k	65.2¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$612	60.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	$11	1.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$130	12.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$25	84.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$977	37.6¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$2.0k	62.1¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$4	4.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$10	1.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$5	5.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	Yes	$220	8.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$19	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	Yes	$765	51.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$3.1k	83.8¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$8	1.7¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$103	5.3¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$457	85.6¢	Won
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	$1.3k	72.5¢	Won
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$765	25.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?	Yes	$533	11.0¢	Lost
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$3.9k	66.9¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$682	27.8¢	Lost
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$2.0k	64.8¢	Won
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$164	30.1¢	Lost
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries	Dallas Wings	$62	30.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	Yes	$420	21.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$53	34.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$9	29.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$31	62.8¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$77	8.7¢	Lost
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	$82	22.1¢	Lost
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$1.4k	70.8¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?	Yes	$1.5k	7.9¢	Lost
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$11	3.6¢	Lost
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	$1.9k	33.7¢	Won
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$1.2k	51.2¢	Lost
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	No	$155	3.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?	Yes	$497	14.4¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$2.2k	76.1¢	Won
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$88	10.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$12	31.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$16	68.0¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$1.1k @ 6.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$51 @ 78.9¢
Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut SunLost
Connecticut Sun$2 @ 35.0¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota LynxLost
Las Vegas Aces$76 @ 37.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$1.1k @ 29.8¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 65.2¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$612 @ 60.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$130 @ 12.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 84.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$977 @ 37.6¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 62.1¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 1.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?Lost
Yes$220 @ 8.0¢
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$19 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Won
Yes$765 @ 51.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$3.1k @ 83.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$103 @ 5.3¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$457 @ 85.6¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$1.3k @ 72.5¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$765 @ 25.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?Lost
Yes$533 @ 11.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
No$3.9k @ 66.9¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$682 @ 27.8¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
No$2.0k @ 64.8¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
Yes$164 @ 30.1¢
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State ValkyriesLost
Dallas Wings$62 @ 30.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?Lost
Yes$420 @ 21.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$53 @ 34.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$9 @ 29.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$31 @ 62.8¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 8.7¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$82 @ 22.1¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 70.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 7.9¢
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.6¢
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$1.9k @ 33.7¢
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 51.2¢
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$155 @ 3.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?Lost
Yes$497 @ 14.4¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 76.1¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$88 @ 10.7¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
No$12 @ 31.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
Yes$16 @ 68.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$14.3k	78.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$14.3k @ 78.9¢