0x817f…bf28

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x817fb2fbff81cd0c61d3f63b8c37a468f5febf28
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.3pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

24% @ 28.2¢

Brier

0.135

Resolved

1114

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (64/178)	+11%	178
Culture	32% (8/25)	-45%	25
Politics	40% (8/20)	-45%	20
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+10%	4
Tech	33% (1/3)	+23%	3

Other178 bets
Hit rate
36% (64/178)
ROI
+11%
Culture25 bets
Hit rate
32% (8/25)
ROI
-45%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
40% (8/20)
ROI
-45%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+10%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+23%

Track record

36% hit · 83/230

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	No	$350	70.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?	Yes	$399	69.8¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$1	39.0¢	Won
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$178	47.5¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 29?	No	$43	37.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in March 2026?	Yes	$9	2.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$22	27.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in March 2026?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$193	63.4¢	Won
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$32	19.3¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2?	No	$86	28.7¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	$189	71.8¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	No	$63	63.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	Yes	$440	71.5¢	Won
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	$231	62.7¢	Lost
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$147	72.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$52	9.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	Yes	$32	21.3¢	Won
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	No	$237	75.1¢	Won
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	Yes	$37	24.4¢	Lost
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of May 25 2026?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?	No	$101	62.2¢	Won
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?	Yes	$65	9.5¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	No	$299	48.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$21	3.5¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 13?	No	$208	87.4¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of May 25 2026?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in March 2026?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$27	26.9¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	$60	13.2¢	Won
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	No	$189	87.9¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	$135	23.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31?	Yes	$353	54.9¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 464 Million subscribers by January 31?	Yes	$96	52.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$13	2.2¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 1?	No	$40	39.0¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?	No	$14	35.0¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?	Yes	$134	34.7¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$8	36.0¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$110	46.0¢	Lost
Will BNB reach $1200 in November?	Yes	$56	35.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$120	60.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	Yes	$76	75.5¢	Won
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	$296	53.2¢	Won
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost

Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?Lost
No$350 @ 70.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$399 @ 69.8¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 39.0¢
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$178 @ 47.5¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 29?Lost
No$43 @ 37.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in March 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.9¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 27.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in March 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$193 @ 63.4¢
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 19.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2?Lost
No$86 @ 28.7¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Won
Yes$189 @ 71.8¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Lost
No$63 @ 63.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Won
Yes$440 @ 71.5¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
No$231 @ 62.7¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$147 @ 72.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$52 @ 9.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?Won
Yes$32 @ 21.3¢
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
No$237 @ 75.1¢
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Lost
Yes$37 @ 24.4¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of May 25 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?Won
No$101 @ 62.2¢
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?Lost
Yes$65 @ 9.5¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?Lost
No$299 @ 48.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.5¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 13?Won
No$208 @ 87.4¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of May 25 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in March 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 26.9¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 13.2¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?Lost
No$189 @ 87.9¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Won
Yes$135 @ 23.5¢
Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31?Won
Yes$353 @ 54.9¢
Will MrBeast hit 464 Million subscribers by January 31?Won
Yes$96 @ 52.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$13 @ 2.2¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 1?Lost
No$40 @ 39.0¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 35.0¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?Won
Yes$134 @ 34.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$8 @ 36.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$110 @ 46.0¢
Will BNB reach $1200 in November?Lost
Yes$56 @ 35.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$120 @ 60.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Won
Yes$76 @ 75.5¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Won
Yes$296 @ 53.2¢
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Culture	Yes	$1	5.0¢
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.4¢

Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?Culture
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢