0x8143…5f93

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8143aedef8323564ff5e1b1dd37ae4e01c565f93
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-19.3pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

27% @ 45.8¢

Brier

0.145

Resolved

Avg size

$49

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	25% (5/20)	-27%	20
Other	22% (4/18)	+23%	18
Tech	50% (1/2)	+11%	2
Economy	100% (2/2)	+55%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+18%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics20 bets
Hit rate
25% (5/20)
ROI
-27%
Other18 bets
Hit rate
22% (4/18)
ROI
+23%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+11%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+55%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

29% hit · 13/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	16.0¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$16	31.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?	No	$13	63.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$19	19.0¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	No	$25	25.0¢	Lost
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?	No	$7	13.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	66.0¢	Lost
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	Yes	$17	83.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	$33	65.0¢	Won
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	$32	64.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	$32	63.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$16	31.0¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$6	32.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$39	39.0¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$44	87.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	26.0¢	Lost
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?	No	$33	66.0¢	Lost
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?	No	$13	63.0¢	Won
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?	Yes	$8	36.0¢	Lost
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$16	32.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$16	81.0¢	Won
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	Yes	$76	76.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?	No	$32	63.0¢	Lost
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	No	$15	29.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?	Yes	$9	46.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$4	17.0¢	Lost
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	$32	64.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	Yes	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Yes	$45	89.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	No	$1.3k	66.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Khatnie by April 30, 2026?	No	$42	83.0¢	Won
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?	Yes	$87	33.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?	Yes	$18	35.0¢	Lost
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	Yes	$18	35.0¢	Lost
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	$74	74.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	20.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30?	Yes	$4	21.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 16.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$16 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?Lost
No$13 @ 63.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$19 @ 19.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Lost
No$25 @ 25.0¢
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?Lost
No$7 @ 13.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 66.0¢
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Lost
Yes$17 @ 83.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Won
Yes$33 @ 65.0¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Won
No$32 @ 64.0¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$32 @ 63.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$16 @ 31.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$6 @ 32.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$44 @ 87.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 26.0¢
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?Lost
No$33 @ 66.0¢
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?Won
No$13 @ 63.0¢
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?Lost
Yes$8 @ 36.0¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
Yes$16 @ 32.0¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 81.0¢
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?Won
Yes$76 @ 76.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Lost
No$32 @ 63.0¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Lost
No$15 @ 29.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?Lost
Yes$9 @ 46.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
Yes$4 @ 17.0¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?Lost
No$32 @ 64.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?Lost
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?Won
Yes$45 @ 89.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
No$1.3k @ 66.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Won
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Russia enter Khatnie by April 30, 2026?Won
No$42 @ 83.0¢
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?Lost
Yes$87 @ 33.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?Lost
Yes$18 @ 35.0¢
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Lost
Yes$18 @ 35.0¢
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$74 @ 74.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.5¢
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Tech	No	$76	76.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$27	54.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	No	$27	54.0¢
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?	Politics	No	$18	88.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$13	66.5¢
Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	No	$12	59.0¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$11	54.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$11	53.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$10	49.0¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Economy	No	$9	43.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	42.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$7	33.1¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$6	30.0¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Science	Yes	$5	27.0¢
Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$5	24.0¢
Will William Peña Farfán win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Politics	Yes	$5	24.0¢
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Politics	Yes	$4	21.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Sports	No	$2	12.0¢
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	11.0¢
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	9.0¢
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	8.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	4.0¢

Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
No$76 @ 76.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
Yes$27 @ 54.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
No$27 @ 54.0¢
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$13 @ 66.5¢
Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
No$12 @ 59.0¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Economy
Yes$11 @ 54.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$11 @ 53.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$10 @ 49.0¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Economy
No$9 @ 43.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 42.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$7 @ 33.1¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$6 @ 30.0¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?Science
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢
Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will William Peña Farfán win the next Cusco mayoral elections?Politics
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Politics
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?Sports
No$2 @ 12.0¢
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢