0x80a0…5708

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

38% @ 32.7¢

Brier

0.214

Resolved

1204

Avg size

$165

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (14/50)	-31%	50
Politics	38% (10/26)	+82%	26
Sports	27% (4/15)	+186%	15
Geopolitics	33% (3/9)	+11%	9

Other50 bets
Hit rate
28% (14/50)
ROI
-31%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
38% (10/26)
ROI
+82%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
27% (4/15)
ROI
+186%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
+11%

Track record

31% hit · 31/100

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$126	2.9¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.5k	11.9¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$330	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$703	3.6¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	$14	2.3¢	Lost
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$142	0.4¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$362	17.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$356	8.5¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$685	6.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$24.3k	78.8¢	Won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Over	$439	48.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.8k	11.9¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$170	1.7¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	32.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$5.6k	81.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$92	15.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$863	43.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$10.7k	41.2¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$69	0.9¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	8.6¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4.1k	79.9¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	Yes	$635	20.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$630	18.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$319	17.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$308	5.6¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Yes	$1.2k	8.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$95	57.2¢	Won
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	England	$219	52.5¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12.9k	16.9¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$362	2.1¢	Lost
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Spain	$2.2k	73.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	$7.7k	29.4¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$2.7k	77.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	Yes	$2.5k	21.4¢	Lost
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance	Mexico	$920	46.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$663	30.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Yes	$40	0.8¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Norway	$3.0k	31.1¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	Yes	$165	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	$45	0.9¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Over	$1.8k	60.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$650	5.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	$300	10.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	34.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	Yes	$8.1k	68.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Yes	$3.9k	27.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	$1.6k	27.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	$2.5k	15.4¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3.3k	37.9¢	Lost

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$126 @ 2.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 11.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$330 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$703 @ 3.6¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Lost
Yes$14 @ 2.3¢
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$142 @ 0.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$362 @ 17.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$356 @ 8.5¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$685 @ 6.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$24.3k @ 78.8¢
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$439 @ 48.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 11.9¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$170 @ 1.7¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 32.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$5.6k @ 81.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$92 @ 15.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$863 @ 43.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$10.7k @ 41.2¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$69 @ 0.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 8.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$4.1k @ 79.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Lost
Yes$635 @ 20.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$630 @ 18.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$319 @ 17.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
Yes$308 @ 5.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 8.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$95 @ 57.2¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceLost
England$219 @ 52.5¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$12.9k @ 16.9¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$362 @ 2.1¢
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$2.2k @ 73.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Lost
Yes$7.7k @ 29.4¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 77.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 21.4¢
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceLost
Mexico$920 @ 46.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$663 @ 30.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.8¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceWon
Norway$3.0k @ 31.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?Lost
Yes$165 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?Lost
Yes$45 @ 0.9¢
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5Won
Over$1.8k @ 60.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$650 @ 5.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Lost
No$300 @ 10.0¢
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 34.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?Won
Yes$8.1k @ 68.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 27.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 27.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 15.4¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 37.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$22.7k	85.1¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$12.9k	63.9¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$11.2k	25.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$9.7k	90.3¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$7.5k	17.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$6.3k	27.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	—	Yes	$4.2k	47.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.6k	89.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	17.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	24.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	7.9¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	5.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	No	$829	22.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	—	Yes	$540	9.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$250	5.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$160	1.6¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$150	2.1¢
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$150	0.5¢
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$149	0.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	—	Yes	$102	22.0¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$99	1.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	—	Yes	$95	12.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	—	Yes	$0	9.0¢

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$22.7k @ 85.1¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$12.9k @ 63.9¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$11.2k @ 25.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$9.7k @ 90.3¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$7.5k @ 17.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$6.3k @ 27.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?—
Yes$4.2k @ 47.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$3.6k @ 89.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 17.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 24.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 7.9¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 5.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
No$829 @ 22.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?—
Yes$540 @ 9.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$250 @ 5.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$160 @ 1.6¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$150 @ 2.1¢
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$150 @ 0.5¢
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$149 @ 0.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?—
Yes$102 @ 22.0¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$99 @ 1.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?—
Yes$95 @ 12.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?—
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢