0x80a0…5708

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.3pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

35% @ 31.9¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

4946

Avg size

$226

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (62/192)	+4%	192
Politics	34% (13/38)	-9%	38
Geopolitics	24% (6/25)	+2%	25
Sports	24% (5/21)	+34%	21

Other192 bets
Hit rate
32% (62/192)
ROI
+4%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
34% (13/38)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics25 bets
Hit rate
24% (6/25)
ROI
+2%
Sports21 bets
Hit rate
24% (5/21)
ROI
+34%

Track record

31% hit · 86/276

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$829	22.4¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	19.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	$1.8k	61.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$250	5.0¢	Lost
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$5.4k	29.4¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$9.2k	69.4¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$7.4k	17.9¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$5.1k	90.3¢	Won
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	$18.5k	46.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	$1.9k	36.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	$1.1k	50.0¢	Won
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$415	8.3¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$126	2.9¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$3.3k	59.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by February 28?	Yes	$945	3.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$1.0k	25.7¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$4.2k	84.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?	Yes	$96	26.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$2.3k	4.8¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.5k	11.9¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	Yes	$1.8k	57.6¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$500	5.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?	Yes	$19	5.3¢	Lost
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	Yes	$2.0k	24.8¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$90	18.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$356	32.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$900	9.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?	Yes	$60	12.0¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	32.0¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$2	2.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$50	0.5¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$330	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$703	3.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3.2k	47.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$3.3k	14.9¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$35	1.2¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$420	6.0¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	$14	2.3¢	Lost
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$142	0.4¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$17.1k	51.2¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$11.2k	34.3¢	Won
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?	Yes	$79	13.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$362	17.5¢	Lost
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$458	70.5¢	Won
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?	Yes	$125	25.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$44.5k	27.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$356	8.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$10.9k	11.4¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$685	6.5¢	Lost

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$829 @ 22.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 19.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 61.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$250 @ 5.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$5.4k @ 29.4¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$9.2k @ 69.4¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$7.4k @ 17.9¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$5.1k @ 90.3¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Lost
Yamal$18.5k @ 46.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 36.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 50.0¢
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$415 @ 8.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$126 @ 2.9¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 59.1¢
US forces enter Iran by February 28?Lost
Yes$945 @ 3.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 25.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$4.2k @ 84.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?Lost
Yes$96 @ 26.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 4.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 11.9¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 57.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$500 @ 5.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 5.3¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 24.8¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$90 @ 18.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$356 @ 32.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$900 @ 9.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?Won
Yes$60 @ 12.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 32.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$2 @ 2.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$330 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$703 @ 3.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 47.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 14.9¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$35 @ 1.2¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$420 @ 6.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Lost
Yes$14 @ 2.3¢
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$142 @ 0.4¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$17.1k @ 51.2¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$11.2k @ 34.3¢
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?Won
Yes$79 @ 13.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$362 @ 17.5¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$458 @ 70.5¢
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?Lost
Yes$125 @ 25.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$44.5k @ 27.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$356 @ 8.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$10.9k @ 11.4¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$685 @ 6.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$30.5k	87.9¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$11.3k	94.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$11.2k	25.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.6k	44.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	13.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.6k	89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	12.7¢
Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	0.2¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	17.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	6.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	27.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	15.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	7.9¢
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Sports	Yes	$1.2k	80.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	38.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	30.0¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$737	68.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$563	12.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$397	6.6¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$358	1.3¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$300	6.0¢
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$289	0.8¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$229	0.8¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$169	4.3¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$166	5.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$165	84.2¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$160	1.6¢
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$150	0.5¢
Will Barcelona host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	—	Yes	$0	0.2¢

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$30.5k @ 87.9¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$11.3k @ 94.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$11.2k @ 25.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4.6k @ 44.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 13.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$3.6k @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 12.7¢
Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 0.2¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 17.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 6.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 27.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 15.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 7.9¢
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Sports
Yes$1.2k @ 80.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 38.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 30.0¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$737 @ 68.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$563 @ 12.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Politics
Yes$397 @ 6.6¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$358 @ 1.3¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$300 @ 6.0¢
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$289 @ 0.8¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$229 @ 0.8¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$169 @ 4.3¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$166 @ 5.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$165 @ 84.2¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$160 @ 1.6¢
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$150 @ 0.5¢
Will Barcelona host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?—
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢