0x809b…4bb8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x809b74fad75959cad11ddd2dcd954067cbd84bb8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.8pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

49% @ 41.8¢

Brier

0.141

Resolved

622

Avg size

$31

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	34% (11/32)	+21%	32
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+52%	1

Other32 bets
Hit rate
34% (11/32)
ROI
+21%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%

Track record

36% hit · 12/33

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	$15	66.0¢	Won
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?	No	$75	75.1¢	Won
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?	Yes	$41	10.1¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$728	37.3¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$2.0k	43.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on March 27?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	$741	75.1¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?	No	$145	36.4¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	$1.9k	25.1¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Yes	$1.1k	74.5¢	Won
Solana all time high before 2026?	Yes	$6	1.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?	Yes	$12	2.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28?	No	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?	No	$38	54.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February?	Yes	$21	5.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?	Yes	$78	9.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	No	$162	81.0¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	No	$45	45.0¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	No	$9.1k	55.0¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	Yes	$14	43.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 29?	No	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?	Yes	$19	4.9¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?	Yes	$50	25.1¢	Lost
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$491	84.7¢	Lost
Paradex FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	$722	83.9¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	No	$1.2k	20.8¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Yes	$524	68.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost

Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 66.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?Won
No$75 @ 75.1¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?Lost
Yes$41 @ 10.1¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$728 @ 37.3¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 43.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on March 27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?Won
No$741 @ 75.1¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?Won
No$145 @ 36.4¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Lost
No$1.9k @ 25.1¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 74.5¢
Solana all time high before 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28?Lost
No$1 @ 0.9¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?Won
No$38 @ 54.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?Lost
Yes$78 @ 9.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?Lost
No$162 @ 81.0¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?Won
No$45 @ 45.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?Won
No$9.1k @ 55.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$14 @ 43.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 29?Lost
No$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?Lost
Yes$19 @ 4.9¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?Lost
Yes$50 @ 25.1¢
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$491 @ 84.7¢
Paradex FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?Won
No$722 @ 83.9¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Lost
No$1.2k @ 20.8¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Won
Yes$524 @ 68.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$74	73.6¢
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$47	64.0¢
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$20	28.0¢
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$15	14.9¢
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$7	3.1¢

Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?Crypto
Yes$74 @ 73.6¢
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
No$47 @ 64.0¢
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto
No$20 @ 28.0¢
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$15 @ 14.9¢
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$7 @ 3.1¢