0x7fa1…deeb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7fa1507e1803272c26d91fb263c507b995d3deeb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

39% @ 32.0¢

Brier

0.204

Resolved

3494

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (976/2430)	+20%	2430
Sports	32% (56/176)	-7%	176
Science	69% (36/52)	+15%	52
Politics	44% (20/45)	+56%	45
Culture	29% (4/14)	-32%	14
Crypto	31% (4/13)	-51%	13
Tech	60% (3/5)	+19%	5
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+207%	3
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other2430 bets
Hit rate
40% (976/2430)
ROI
+20%
Sports176 bets
Hit rate
32% (56/176)
ROI
-7%
Science52 bets
Hit rate
69% (36/52)
ROI
+15%
Politics45 bets
Hit rate
44% (20/45)
ROI
+56%
Culture14 bets
Hit rate
29% (4/14)
ROI
-32%
Crypto13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-51%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+207%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

40% hit · 1102/2741

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will anyone say "Blind" during Big Brother E41?	Yes	$3	14.9¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Veto" 5+ times during Big Brother E41?	No	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Surprise" during Big Brother E41?	Yes	$0	2.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on October 1?	Yes	$2	37.0¢	Won
Blackhawks vs. Utah	Utah	$3	67.0¢	Won
Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5	Over	$3	54.0¢	Won
Will anyone say "Family" during Big Brother E41?	Yes	$1	7.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Lost
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 0.5	Under	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Will Mamdani say "Billionaire" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?	Yes	$4	29.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on December 25?	No	$1	23.0¢	Won
Wimbledon ATP (Doubles): Arribage/Olivetti vs Luz/Matos	Luz/Matos	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on December 16?	No	$0	36.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$4	74.9¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Under	$4	49.0¢	Lost
Will Johnson & Johnson say "Trufill" during earnings call?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Game Handicap: FEC (-2.5) vs mCon esports (+2.5)	mCon esports	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 20?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Set 2 Winner: Bigun vs Gurenko	Gurenko	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on December 25?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner	mCon esports	$1	57.0¢	Lost
Will "The Rip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)	No	$4	76.0¢	Won
Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5	Over	$3	56.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will Leinster win?	No	$1	7.3¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$2	32.6¢	Lost
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?	No	$0	18.0¢	Lost
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?	Yes	$0	35.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 11?	Yes	$1	1.9¢	Lost
Will Luke Combs release an album in 2026?	No	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Will "Vladimir" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	$1	23.0¢	Won
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5	Yes	$1	48.0¢	Won
Spread: Athletics (-3.5)	Athletics	$1	12.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 29)	No	$5	21.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner	Gentle Mates	$3	46.0¢	Lost
StarCraft II: herO vs Clem (BO7) - RSL Revival Playoffs	herO	$1	42.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "India and Pakistan" or "India Pakistan" this week? (March 8)	No	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin ETF Flows on February 17?	Negative	$0	12.0¢	Won
Bitcoin ETF Flows on February 17?	Positive	$0	7.0¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5	Under	$1	36.0¢	Won
Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?	No	$6	26.0¢	Won
Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?	No	$2	53.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	$3	58.0¢	Won
Ethereum ETF Flows on March 9?	Negative	$3	14.0¢	Won
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds?	Even	$1	51.0¢	Won
Will Mamdani say "Budget" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?	No	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 9?	No	$4	59.0¢	Won
Will 'Cloud 9' - Megan Moroney debut week album sales be at least 45k?	No	$8	19.8¢	Lost

Will anyone say "Blind" during Big Brother E41?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.9¢
Will anyone say "Veto" 5+ times during Big Brother E41?Lost
No$0 @ 1.4¢
Will anyone say "Surprise" during Big Brother E41?Won
Yes$0 @ 2.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on October 1?Won
Yes$2 @ 37.0¢
Blackhawks vs. UtahWon
Utah$3 @ 67.0¢
Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Won
Over$3 @ 54.0¢
Will anyone say "Family" during Big Brother E41?Won
Yes$1 @ 7.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 0.5Lost
Under$1 @ 3.6¢
Will Mamdani say "Billionaire" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?Lost
Yes$4 @ 29.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on December 25?Won
No$1 @ 23.0¢
Wimbledon ATP (Doubles): Arribage/Olivetti vs Luz/MatosLost
Luz/Matos$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on December 16?Lost
No$0 @ 36.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$4 @ 74.9¢
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Lost
Under$4 @ 49.0¢
Will Johnson & Johnson say "Trufill" during earnings call?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Game Handicap: FEC (-2.5) vs mCon esports (+2.5)Lost
mCon esports$1 @ 40.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Set 2 Winner: Bigun vs GurenkoLost
Gurenko$1 @ 13.0¢
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?Lost
No$5 @ 24.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on December 25?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports - Game 3 WinnerLost
mCon esports$1 @ 57.0¢
Will "The Rip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)Won
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Won
Over$3 @ 56.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Will Leinster win?Lost
No$1 @ 7.3¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$2 @ 32.6¢
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?Lost
No$0 @ 18.0¢
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?Won
Yes$0 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢
Will Luke Combs release an album in 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 2.2¢
Will "Vladimir" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Won
No$1 @ 23.0¢
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Won
Yes$1 @ 48.0¢
Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Lost
Athletics$1 @ 12.3¢
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 29)Lost
No$5 @ 21.0¢
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 WinnerLost
Gentle Mates$3 @ 46.0¢
StarCraft II: herO vs Clem (BO7) - RSL Revival PlayoffsWon
herO$1 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump say "India and Pakistan" or "India Pakistan" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$1 @ 16.0¢
Bitcoin ETF Flows on February 17?Won
Negative$0 @ 12.0¢
Bitcoin ETF Flows on February 17?Lost
Positive$0 @ 7.0¢
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Won
Under$1 @ 36.0¢
Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?Won
No$6 @ 26.0¢
Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?Won
No$2 @ 53.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 58.0¢
Ethereum ETF Flows on March 9?Won
Negative$3 @ 14.0¢
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds?Won
Even$1 @ 51.0¢
Will Mamdani say "Budget" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?Lost
No$3 @ 12.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 9?Won
No$4 @ 59.0¢
Will 'Cloud 9' - Megan Moroney debut week album sales be at least 45k?Lost
No$8 @ 19.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$36	75.3¢
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$21	28.8¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$13	43.5¢
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$12	38.5¢
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$8	53.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$8	45.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$8	24.5¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$7	68.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$7	10.7¢
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$5	20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 2?	Science	Yes	$3	67.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$3	18.0¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$3	6.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on October 2?	Science	Yes	$3	55.0¢
Toledo vs. Ball State: O/U 51.5	Sports	Over	$3	53.0¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$3	28.0¢
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	23.0¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$2	44.1¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 2?	Science	Yes	$2	38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 2?	Science	Yes	$2	35.0¢
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Tech	Yes	$2	40.0¢
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$2	4.0¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	14.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$1	2.6¢
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week?	Tech	No	$0	31.0¢

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?Tech
No$36 @ 75.3¢
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$21 @ 28.8¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$13 @ 43.5¢
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?Crypto
Yes$12 @ 38.5¢
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$8 @ 53.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$8 @ 45.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 24.5¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31?Politics
Yes$7 @ 68.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$7 @ 10.7¢
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$5 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 2?Science
Yes$3 @ 67.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$3 @ 6.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on October 2?Science
Yes$3 @ 55.0¢
Toledo vs. Ball State: O/U 51.5Sports
Over$3 @ 53.0¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 44.1¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 2?Science
Yes$2 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 2?Science
Yes$2 @ 35.0¢
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Tech
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week?Tech
No$0 @ 31.0¢