0x7f43…f942

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7f43ee30c9a8ac45b6ef37408bba4ba3bd8ff942
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

24% @ 20.1¢

Brier

0.115

Resolved

657

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (22/72)	+3%	72
Politics	25% (11/44)	+42%	44
Tech	10% (3/29)	-53%	29
Geopolitics	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Science	43% (3/7)	+64%	7
Culture	67% (2/3)	+80%	3
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+118%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other72 bets
Hit rate
31% (22/72)
ROI
+3%
Politics44 bets
Hit rate
25% (11/44)
ROI
+42%
Tech29 bets
Hit rate
10% (3/29)
ROI
-53%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+64%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+80%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+118%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

25% hit · 42/168

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	$2	1.4¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 5, 2026?	Yes	$3	8.1¢	Lost
Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of September 28?	Yes	$37	16.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	$3	4.5¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$10	20.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?	Yes	$1	7.5¢	Lost
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in September?	No	$11	49.0¢	Won
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in September?	Yes	$22	20.8¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$13	5.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$11	24.5¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	11.9¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$2	20.9¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Lost
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$6	41.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	$1	42.4¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$4	73.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Lost
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in September?	Yes	$11	20.2¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	$9	21.5¢	Won
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	$6	11.4¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$3	31.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$2	37.3¢	Lost
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?	Yes	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in September?	Yes	$78	22.4¢	Lost
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	$5	42.5¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$41	23.1¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	$0	2.4¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	$27	34.9¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	$8	49.3¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	$16	37.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	$5	65.6¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	$3	26.2¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$1	8.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	$2	10.1¢	Lost
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	Yes	$2	10.1¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$14	29.2¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.7¢	Lost

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 1.4¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.1¢
Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of September 28?Lost
Yes$37 @ 16.0¢
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.5¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.8¢
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.5¢
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in September?Won
No$11 @ 49.0¢
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
Yes$22 @ 20.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.2¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$11 @ 24.5¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.9¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.9¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$6 @ 41.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 42.4¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 73.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in September?Won
Yes$11 @ 20.2¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 21.5¢
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 37.3¢
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
Yes$78 @ 22.4¢
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Lost
Yes$5 @ 42.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$41 @ 23.1¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.4¢
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?Lost
No$27 @ 34.9¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 49.3¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 37.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 65.6¢
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 26.2¢
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.1¢
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.1¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 29.2¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.7¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	Science	Yes	$95	18.7¢
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?	Science	Yes	$66	15.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$59	38.9¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	No	$55	48.0¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Science	Yes	$54	14.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$44	19.0¢
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $30 in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$39	22.0¢
Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 30?	Science	No	$33	27.9¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$31	31.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$30	43.3¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$25	16.4¢
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?	Science	Yes	$25	45.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$24	24.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$22	31.0¢
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$17	51.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$16	32.4¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	31.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$11	28.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$8	58.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	5.9¢
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Science	Yes	$7	56.0¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	Science	Yes	$6	24.8¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	27.0¢
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Science	Yes	$5	20.8¢
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?	Science	Yes	$5	42.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	6.0¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	13.0¢
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3	26.0¢
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	2.8¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 7, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	10.8¢

Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?Science
Yes$95 @ 18.7¢
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?Science
Yes$66 @ 15.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$59 @ 38.9¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
No$55 @ 48.0¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?Science
Yes$54 @ 14.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$44 @ 19.0¢
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $30 in 2026?Tech
Yes$39 @ 22.0¢
Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 30?Science
No$33 @ 27.9¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$30 @ 43.3¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$25 @ 16.4¢
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?Science
Yes$25 @ 45.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$22 @ 31.0¢
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$17 @ 51.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$16 @ 32.4¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 31.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$11 @ 28.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$8 @ 58.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 5.9¢
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Science
Yes$7 @ 56.0¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?Science
Yes$6 @ 24.8¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Science
Yes$5 @ 20.8¢
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?Science
Yes$5 @ 42.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 2.8¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 7, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 10.8¢