0x7e1d…4d41

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7e1d3cb44c3f2a6ec9abc667820ee2645bd44d41
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

57% @ 47.1¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

786

Avg size

$29

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (139/229)	+11%	229
Tech	38% (28/73)	+2%	73
Politics	50% (9/18)	+12%	18
Sports	75% (9/12)	+35%	12
Geopolitics	50% (6/12)	+12%	12
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+221%	1

Other229 bets
Hit rate
61% (139/229)
ROI
+11%
Tech73 bets
Hit rate
38% (28/73)
ROI
+2%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
50% (9/18)
ROI
+12%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+35%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
+12%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+221%

Track record

56% hit · 192/345

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$17	34.0¢	Won
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	$295	98.2¢	Won
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$645	81.9¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	$199	90.9¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$12	80.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	$9	15.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$8	16.0¢	Won
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$6	64.0¢	Won
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$318	72.7¢	Won
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$5	2.5¢	Lost
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$14	13.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$6	61.2¢	Lost
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$10	30.2¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$57	1.8¢	Lost
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$15	2.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$161	26.8¢	Lost
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$265	46.6¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	$7	36.1¢	Won
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$44	73.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$18	8.0¢	Won
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceXAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Lost
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$8	16.0¢	Lost
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$54	31.4¢	Lost
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$330	53.3¢	Lost
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$10	70.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Lost
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$17	12.6¢	Lost
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$1	39.0¢	Won
Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$218	75.1¢	Won
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$410	80.8¢	Won
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Spurs	$255	86.0¢	Won
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	No	$16	89.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	No	$61	77.0¢	Won
Up Only podcast released by November 30?	No	$211	57.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$8	7.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$82	68.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$282	82.2¢	Won
OpenAI browser by September 30?	No	$51	79.0¢	Won

Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$17 @ 34.0¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$295 @ 98.2¢
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$645 @ 81.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$199 @ 90.9¢
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 80.0¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 15.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
No$8 @ 16.0¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$6 @ 64.0¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$318 @ 72.7¢
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 13.1¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 61.2¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 30.2¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 1.8¢
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$161 @ 26.8¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$265 @ 46.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
No$7 @ 36.1¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 73.0¢
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 8.0¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will SpaceXAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$8 @ 16.0¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 31.4¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$330 @ 53.3¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 70.0¢
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$17 @ 12.6¢
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$1 @ 39.0¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$218 @ 75.1¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$410 @ 80.8¢
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Won
Spurs$255 @ 86.0¢
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreWon
No$16 @ 89.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Won
No$61 @ 77.0¢
Up Only podcast released by November 30?Won
No$211 @ 57.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$82 @ 68.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$282 @ 82.2¢
OpenAI browser by September 30?Won
No$51 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Tech	Yes	$143	49.4¢
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$90	83.9¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$85	70.5¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$69	96.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$53	53.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$33	33.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$27	18.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Tech	No	$23	46.0¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$16	23.5¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$12	12.0¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$11	22.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?	Politics	Yes	$11	17.4¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$8	0.6¢
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$6	28.0¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	28.0¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	0.6¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 5, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	2.5¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	2.8¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	1.1¢
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	Yes	$1	21.0¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	5.0¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.1¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.6¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.6¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.5¢
Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$0	0.5¢

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Tech
Yes$143 @ 49.4¢
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$90 @ 83.9¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$85 @ 70.5¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?Tech
Yes$69 @ 96.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Tech
Yes$53 @ 53.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Tech
Yes$33 @ 33.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$27 @ 18.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?Tech
No$23 @ 46.0¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$16 @ 23.5¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$12 @ 12.0¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$11 @ 22.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?Politics
Yes$11 @ 17.4¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$8 @ 0.6¢
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$6 @ 28.0¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 28.0¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 5, 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 2.5¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢