0x7cbd…1288

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7cbdd6fff55e78b77511f44691317de45a051288
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

42% @ 36.8¢

Brier

0.178

Resolved

998

Avg size

$22

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (100/267)	-5%	267
Politics	57% (46/80)	+2%	80
Geopolitics	82% (9/11)	+18%	11
Tech	67% (4/6)	+102%	6
Sports	50% (1/2)	-30%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+67%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+257%	1

Other267 bets
Hit rate
37% (100/267)
ROI
-5%
Politics80 bets
Hit rate
57% (46/80)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
82% (9/11)
ROI
+18%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+102%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-30%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+67%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+257%

Track record

44% hit · 162/370

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?	Yes	$154	36.0¢	Lost
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	No	$145	47.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$149	11.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?	Yes	$38	19.3¢	Lost
Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	Yes	$109	46.5¢	Lost
Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by July 31?	Yes	$80	34.0¢	Lost
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	Yes	$148	10.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	No	$89	31.0¢	Lost
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	Yes	$9	15.0¢	Lost
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Brisbane International, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raphael Collignon	Shevchenko	$9	18.0¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$85	56.0¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$102	73.0¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$10	40.0¢	Lost
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$176	21.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	No	$134	79.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$87	85.0¢	Won
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-06?	Yes	$4	18.0¢	Lost
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-12-09?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$8	58.0¢	Won
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	No	$90	37.0¢	Won
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$88	40.0¢	Won
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	No	$160	50.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$89	60.0¢	Won
Will Juventus FC vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?	Yes	$2	13.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$93	10.0¢	Lost
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$125	16.4¢	Lost
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	$160	35.9¢	Lost
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?	Yes	$25	30.0¢	Lost
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-12-14?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Lost
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$61	14.9¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$131	87.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	No	$19	28.0¢	Won
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?	No	$8	55.0¢	Won
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	$129	57.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	No	$97	39.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	No	$88	77.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	$150	17.0¢	Lost
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10?	Yes	$2	10.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	$0	16.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	Yes	$3	46.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$95	35.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	$87	71.0¢	Won
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?	No	$89	10.9¢	Lost
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$89	48.0¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$88	64.1¢	Won
Will Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$152	18.4¢	Lost

Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?Lost
Yes$154 @ 36.0¢
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?Lost
No$145 @ 47.0¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$149 @ 11.4¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?Lost
Yes$38 @ 19.3¢
Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?Lost
Yes$109 @ 46.5¢
Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by July 31?Lost
Yes$80 @ 34.0¢
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?Lost
Yes$148 @ 10.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Lost
No$89 @ 31.0¢
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Lost
Yes$9 @ 15.0¢
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Brisbane International, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raphael CollignonLost
Shevchenko$9 @ 18.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$85 @ 56.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$102 @ 73.0¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$10 @ 40.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$176 @ 21.0¢
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Won
No$134 @ 79.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 85.0¢
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-06?Lost
Yes$4 @ 18.0¢
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-12-09?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$8 @ 58.0¢
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?Won
No$90 @ 37.0¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$88 @ 40.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Lost
No$160 @ 50.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$89 @ 60.0¢
Will Juventus FC vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Lost
Yes$93 @ 10.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$125 @ 16.4¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Lost
No$160 @ 35.9¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$25 @ 30.0¢
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-12-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$61 @ 14.9¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$131 @ 87.0¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Won
No$19 @ 28.0¢
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?Won
No$8 @ 55.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?Won
No$129 @ 57.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Lost
No$97 @ 39.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
No$88 @ 77.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
No$150 @ 17.0¢
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.8¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Lost
No$0 @ 16.0¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Won
Yes$3 @ 46.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$95 @ 35.0¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Won
No$87 @ 71.0¢
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?Lost
No$89 @ 10.9¢
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$89 @ 48.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$88 @ 64.1¢
Will Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$152 @ 18.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Business	No	$293	34.9¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$171	14.2¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$170	38.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Politics	No	$162	58.7¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Tech	No	$161	68.0¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Politics	No	$160	35.9¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	—	Yes	$160	32.0¢
Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?	Politics	No	$158	52.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Politics	No	$157	50.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	Culture	No	$156	41.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$156	29.0¢
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	Politics	No	$155	48.0¢
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?	—	Yes	$154	36.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	—	No	$152	17.0¢
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Politics	No	$151	23.8¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Politics	No	$150	17.0¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$149	11.4¢
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	—	Yes	$148	10.9¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	—	No	$148	18.4¢
Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?	Politics	No	$146	31.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in November?	Other	No	$146	72.9¢
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	—	No	$145	47.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	—	Yes	$144	12.5¢
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Politics	Yes	$140	15.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$138	39.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	No	$137	18.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	Politics	No	$130	13.0¢
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	Yes	$129	30.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	Yes	$125	16.4¢
Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	—	Yes	$109	46.5¢

Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Business
No$293 @ 34.9¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$171 @ 14.2¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$170 @ 38.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Politics
No$162 @ 58.7¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?Tech
No$161 @ 68.0¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Politics
No$160 @ 35.9¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?—
Yes$160 @ 32.0¢
Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?Politics
No$158 @ 52.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Politics
No$157 @ 50.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Culture
No$156 @ 41.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$156 @ 29.0¢
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Politics
No$155 @ 48.0¢
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?—
Yes$154 @ 36.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?—
No$152 @ 17.0¢
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?Politics
No$151 @ 23.8¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Politics
No$150 @ 17.0¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$149 @ 11.4¢
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?—
Yes$148 @ 10.9¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?—
No$148 @ 18.4¢
Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?Politics
No$146 @ 31.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in November?Other
No$146 @ 72.9¢
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?—
No$145 @ 47.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?—
Yes$144 @ 12.5¢
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Politics
Yes$140 @ 15.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$138 @ 39.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
No$137 @ 18.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Politics
No$130 @ 13.0¢
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
Yes$129 @ 30.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
Yes$125 @ 16.4¢
Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?—
Yes$109 @ 46.5¢