0x7c4a…db2b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7c4a7f00e9d6b375cdaf7cdc6831b00e338fdb2b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

50% @ 40.2¢

Brier

0.191

Resolved

204

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	29% (11/38)	-28%	38
Other	38% (9/24)	-13%	24
Politics	40% (4/10)	+26%	10
Culture	67% (6/9)	+46%	9
Economy	50% (1/2)	-50%	2

Sports38 bets
Hit rate
29% (11/38)
ROI
-28%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
38% (9/24)
ROI
-13%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+26%
Culture9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+46%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-50%

Track record

37% hit · 31/83

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	$178	70.3¢	Won
Will Suriname win on 2026-09-28?	No	$12	35.0¢	Lost
Will Paris FC win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Lost
Will "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$2	43.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	No	$102	62.0¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona vs. Paris FC end in a draw?	Yes	$7	3.2¢	Lost
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$16	80.0¢	Won
Will Guadeloupe win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	$7	34.0¢	Won
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	$250	80.5¢	Won
Will Alec Burleson lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	$9	62.0¢	Won
Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6	Yes	$12	20.7¢	Lost
Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montreal	No	$48	79.6¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-09-29?	No	$2	42.0¢	Lost
Will Senegal win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	$3	62.0¢	Won
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-09-24?	No	$39	78.0¢	Won
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	$4	16.0¢	Lost
Will Servette FC Chênois Féminin win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	$3	2.9¢	Lost
Will Somalia win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	$5	1.7¢	Lost
Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$111	34.6¢	Won
Will Maldives win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	$3	1.6¢	Lost
Will Birmingham City WFC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	$5	2.6¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	$8	56.0¢	Lost
Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	$8	82.4¢	Won
Will Denver Outlaws be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion?	No	$12	76.3¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	$8	72.5¢	Lost
Will HB Køge win on 2026-09-22?	Yes	$6	3.3¢	Lost
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$8	13.5¢	Lost
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?	Yes	$10	14.4¢	Lost
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-08-14?	Yes	$20	79.0¢	Lost
NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to Score	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	No	$9	54.0¢	Lost
Will Albania win on 2026-09-29?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	$23	27.0¢	Lost
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-09-23?	No	$9	4.2¢	Lost
Will Chicago Stars FC win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	$4	5.7¢	Lost
Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	Yes	$9	4.0¢	Lost
Will Alianza FC vs. Deportivo Pereira end in a draw?	Yes	$130	61.3¢	Won
San Marino vs. Albania: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	$45	69.9¢	Won
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	No	$1	24.0¢	Won
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Yes	$9	64.3¢	Lost
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of September 26?	Yes	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	$4	3.3¢	Lost
Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$9	77.2¢	Won
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	No	$13	20.4¢	Won
Will Bohemian FC win on 2026-08-13?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Chandler Simpson lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	$8	37.0¢	Lost
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	No	$48	86.1¢	Won

Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
No$178 @ 70.3¢
Will Suriname win on 2026-09-28?Lost
No$12 @ 35.0¢
Will Paris FC win on 2026-09-23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
Will "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Won
Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?Lost
No$102 @ 62.0¢
Will FC Barcelona vs. Paris FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.2¢
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-10-01?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Guadeloupe win on 2026-09-25?Won
Yes$7 @ 34.0¢
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?Won
No$250 @ 80.5¢
Will Alec Burleson lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?Won
Yes$9 @ 62.0¢
Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6Lost
Yes$12 @ 20.7¢
Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP MontrealWon
No$48 @ 79.6¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-09-29?Lost
No$2 @ 42.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-09-29?Won
Yes$3 @ 62.0¢
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-09-24?Won
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-09-24?Lost
Yes$4 @ 16.0¢
Will Servette FC Chênois Féminin win on 2026-09-23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
Will Somalia win on 2026-09-29?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.7¢
Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
Yes$111 @ 34.6¢
Will Maldives win on 2026-09-24?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.6¢
Will Birmingham City WFC win on 2026-09-19?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.6¢
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?Lost
Yes$8 @ 56.0¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 82.4¢
Will Denver Outlaws be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion?Won
No$12 @ 76.3¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-09-29?Lost
Yes$8 @ 72.5¢
Will HB Køge win on 2026-09-22?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.3¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$8 @ 13.5¢
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?Lost
Yes$10 @ 14.4¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-08-14?Lost
Yes$20 @ 79.0¢
NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?Lost
No$9 @ 54.0¢
Will Albania win on 2026-09-29?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?Lost
Yes$23 @ 27.0¢
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-09-23?Lost
No$9 @ 4.2¢
Will Chicago Stars FC win on 2026-09-25?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.7¢
Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Lost
Yes$9 @ 4.0¢
Will Alianza FC vs. Deportivo Pereira end in a draw?Won
Yes$130 @ 61.3¢
San Marino vs. Albania: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?Won
No$45 @ 69.9¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?Won
No$1 @ 24.0¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?Lost
Yes$9 @ 64.3¢
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of September 26?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.0¢
Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Lost
No$4 @ 3.3¢
Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Won
Yes$9 @ 77.2¢
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Won
No$13 @ 20.4¢
Will Bohemian FC win on 2026-08-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Chandler Simpson lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?Lost
Yes$8 @ 37.0¢
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Won
No$48 @ 86.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10?	Culture	Yes	$279	93.8¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03?	Sports	No	$206	66.0¢
Will the fight be won by submission?	Sports	No	$204	53.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?	Sports	No	$184	57.8¢
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Politics	No	$169	83.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?	Politics	No	$75	67.7¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Politics	No	$68	32.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$63	27.6¢
Will Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw?	Sports	No	$59	84.0¢
Exact Margin: Tie	Sports	No	$53	98.0¢
Exact Margin: Tie	Sports	No	$46	98.0¢
Exact Margin: Tie	Sports	No	$46	98.0¢
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$39	33.0¢
Exact Margin: Tie	Sports	No	$36	98.0¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$34	13.2¢
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$32	54.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Sports	No	$25	21.4¢
Will Indiana be Ranked #1 during the 2026-27 CFB season?	—	No	$24	72.0¢
Exact Score: Levante UD 3 - 3 Athletic Club?	Sports	No	$20	98.7¢
Exact Margin: Tie	Sports	No	$20	98.0¢
Exact Margin: Tie	Sports	No	$18	98.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$18	88.0¢
Will Chris Olave have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$16	62.0¢
Will Carnell Tate be the highest-scoring WR of the 2026-27 NFL season?	Sports	No	$15	77.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10?	Culture	No	$15	74.0¢
Exact Score: Levante UD 3 - 0 Athletic Club?	Sports	No	$14	98.5¢
Exact Score: Levante UD 3 - 1 Athletic Club?	Sports	No	$14	97.5¢
Will Atlético Nacional vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?	Sports	No	$13	79.3¢
Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	Politics	No	$12	87.0¢
Will Argentina vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw?	Sports	No	$12	85.0¢

Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10?Culture
Yes$279 @ 93.8¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03?Sports
No$206 @ 66.0¢
Will the fight be won by submission?Sports
No$204 @ 53.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Sports
No$184 @ 57.8¢
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Politics
No$169 @ 83.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?Politics
No$75 @ 67.7¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Politics
No$68 @ 32.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Politics
Yes$63 @ 27.6¢
Will Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw?Sports
No$59 @ 84.0¢
Exact Margin: TieSports
No$53 @ 98.0¢
Exact Margin: TieSports
No$46 @ 98.0¢
Exact Margin: TieSports
No$46 @ 98.0¢
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
Yes$39 @ 33.0¢
Exact Margin: TieSports
No$36 @ 98.0¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$34 @ 13.2¢
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$32 @ 54.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?Sports
No$25 @ 21.4¢
Will Indiana be Ranked #1 during the 2026-27 CFB season?—
No$24 @ 72.0¢
Exact Score: Levante UD 3 - 3 Athletic Club?Sports
No$20 @ 98.7¢
Exact Margin: TieSports
No$20 @ 98.0¢
Exact Margin: TieSports
No$18 @ 98.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election?Politics
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Chris Olave have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$16 @ 62.0¢
Will Carnell Tate be the highest-scoring WR of the 2026-27 NFL season?Sports
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10?Culture
No$15 @ 74.0¢
Exact Score: Levante UD 3 - 0 Athletic Club?Sports
No$14 @ 98.5¢
Exact Score: Levante UD 3 - 1 Athletic Club?Sports
No$14 @ 97.5¢
Will Atlético Nacional vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?Sports
No$13 @ 79.3¢
Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
No$12 @ 87.0¢
Will Argentina vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw?Sports
No$12 @ 85.0¢