0x7b04…3a41

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7b04bf3fe9853b25666ed585ab9f22ca60733a41
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+11.5pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

32% @ 20.0¢

Brier

0.228

Resolved

2675

Avg size

$35

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (31/87)	-44%	87
Sports	40% (2/5)	+67%	5
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-51%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+150%	1
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other87 bets
Hit rate
36% (31/87)
ROI
-44%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+67%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-51%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+150%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

36% hit · 35/96

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$75	25.0¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1.0k	18.3¢	Lost
Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	$507	24.5¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Garcia vs. Onama	Garcia	$50	50.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$18	18.0¢	Won
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	$70	7.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$650	65.0¢	Lost
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	Yes	$4	3.5¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$80	8.0¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$72	71.7¢	Won
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?	No	$120	40.0¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	$50	10.9¢	Won
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$105	10.5¢	Lost
Will "The Beast in Me" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)	Yes	$68	50.2¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in December?	Yes	$46	46.0¢	Lost
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?	Yes	$1.2k	84.2¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	Yes	$4.2k	26.9¢	Lost
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	$6	29.0¢	Lost
Will Travis Kelce rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$58	0.5¢	Lost
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?	Yes	$500	20.1¢	Lost
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	$52	87.3¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	53.0¢	Won
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?	No	$39	78.0¢	Won
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	$6	29.0¢	Lost
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?	Yes	$63	23.2¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	$1.5k	25.5¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Yes	$650	65.0¢	Won
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	Yes	$25	50.0¢	Lost
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?	No	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$314	82.5¢	Won
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?	Yes	$81	27.2¢	Lost
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?	No	$26	38.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$3.0k	89.0¢	Won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Yes	$885	88.5¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	$150	15.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $114,000 on October 12?	No	$38	9.4¢	Lost
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?	Yes	$139	55.6¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$6.8k	52.2¢	Lost
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	No	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?	Yes	$52	16.1¢	Lost
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$27	4.3¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$330	10.0¢	Lost
Will David Corenswet rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?	Yes	$42	3.0¢	Lost
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	$50	8.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$13.5k	15.9¢	Won
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?	Yes	$92	23.0¢	Won
Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Yes	$180	18.0¢	Lost
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	$25	2.5¢	Lost

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$75 @ 25.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 18.3¢
Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$507 @ 24.5¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Garcia vs. OnamaWon
Garcia$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$18 @ 18.0¢
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$70 @ 7.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$650 @ 65.0¢
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.5¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$80 @ 8.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
Yes$72 @ 71.7¢
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?Won
No$120 @ 40.0¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?Won
Yes$50 @ 10.9¢
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$105 @ 10.5¢
Will "The Beast in Me" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)Lost
Yes$68 @ 50.2¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in December?Lost
Yes$46 @ 46.0¢
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 84.2¢
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 26.9¢
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$6 @ 29.0¢
Will Travis Kelce rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$58 @ 0.5¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Lost
Yes$500 @ 20.1¢
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?Won
Yes$52 @ 87.3¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 53.0¢
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?Won
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$6 @ 29.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?Won
Yes$63 @ 23.2¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Lost
No$1.5k @ 25.5¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$650 @ 65.0¢
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Lost
Yes$25 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?Lost
No$90 @ 9.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$314 @ 82.5¢
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$81 @ 27.2¢
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?Won
No$26 @ 38.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 89.0¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Won
Yes$885 @ 88.5¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?Won
Yes$150 @ 15.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $114,000 on October 12?Lost
No$38 @ 9.4¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$139 @ 55.6¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$6.8k @ 52.2¢
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?Won
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$52 @ 16.1¢
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.3¢
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$330 @ 10.0¢
Will David Corenswet rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Lost
Yes$42 @ 3.0¢
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$50 @ 8.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$13.5k @ 15.9¢
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?Won
Yes$92 @ 23.0¢
Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$25 @ 2.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$232	4.3¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$224	3.1¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$172	10.9¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$75	25.0¢

Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$232 @ 4.3¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$224 @ 3.1¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$172 @ 10.9¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$75 @ 25.0¢