0x7a16…518b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7a1630b1f839e4423f437dd2a8e2164194ce518b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.7pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

56% @ 43.8¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

262

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (65/116)	+29%	116
Politics	31% (5/16)	+44%	16
Economy	33% (2/6)	-53%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Other116 bets
Hit rate
56% (65/116)
ROI
+29%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
31% (5/16)
ROI
+44%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-53%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 72/141

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?	No	$10	88.4¢	Won
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	22.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$34	63.9¢	Won
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation be ≥0.3% in December?	Yes	$61	68.4¢	Won
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$30	62.6¢	Won
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Yes	$40	36.6¢	Won
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	$5	11.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$86	39.1¢	Lost
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	$10	42.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$10	59.7¢	Won
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$31	20.1¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$1	7.1¢	Lost
Will Canada’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 6.8%?	No	$10	50.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?	Yes	$15	31.7¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$15	32.0¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20	35.7¢	Won
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?	Yes	$1	10.9¢	Won
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?	Yes	$8	17.0¢	Lost
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?	No	$13	50.0¢	Lost
ECB rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$10	56.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	52.3¢	Won
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$5	33.0¢	Won
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.3% in December?	Yes	$4	28.6¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$29	56.2¢	Won
French election called by December 31?	Yes	$10	31.0¢	Lost
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	6.9¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	Yes	$14	70.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Won
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	$25	73.2¢	Won
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?	Yes	$30	20.3¢	Lost
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.3% in December?	Yes	$7	23.8¢	Lost
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$102	76.8¢	Won
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$73	30.3¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?	Yes	$6	23.4¢	Lost
Will the US lose jobs in January?	Yes	$5	16.9¢	Lost
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.1% in December?	No	$25	70.6¢	Won
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?	Yes	$147	37.7¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?	Yes	$94	36.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Yes	$7	43.0¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$10	39.0¢	Won
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?	No	$14	77.3¢	Won
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?	Yes	$2	65.0¢	Lost
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?	Yes	$15	49.0¢	Won
Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Won
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$11	65.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$15	41.0¢	Won
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in December?	No	$30	73.4¢	Won
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March?	Yes	$5	37.5¢	Lost

Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?Won
No$10 @ 88.4¢
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$10 @ 22.7¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
Yes$34 @ 63.9¢
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation be ≥0.3% in December?Won
Yes$61 @ 68.4¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$30 @ 62.6¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?Won
Yes$40 @ 36.6¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$86 @ 39.1¢
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 42.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$10 @ 59.7¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$31 @ 20.1¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.1¢
Will Canada’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 6.8%?Won
No$10 @ 50.0¢
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Lost
Yes$15 @ 31.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 32.0¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$20 @ 35.7¢
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?Won
Yes$1 @ 10.9¢
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?Lost
Yes$8 @ 17.0¢
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?Lost
No$13 @ 50.0¢
ECB rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 52.3¢
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
No$5 @ 33.0¢
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.3% in December?Lost
Yes$4 @ 28.6¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Won
Yes$29 @ 56.2¢
French election called by December 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 31.0¢
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?Won
Yes$14 @ 70.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?Won
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Won
Yes$25 @ 73.2¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?Lost
Yes$30 @ 20.3¢
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.3% in December?Lost
Yes$7 @ 23.8¢
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$102 @ 76.8¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$73 @ 30.3¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?Lost
Yes$6 @ 23.4¢
Will the US lose jobs in January?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.9¢
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.1% in December?Won
No$25 @ 70.6¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?Lost
Yes$147 @ 37.7¢
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?Lost
Yes$94 @ 36.1¢
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Won
Yes$7 @ 43.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$10 @ 39.0¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?Won
No$14 @ 77.3¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 65.0¢
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?Won
Yes$15 @ 49.0¢
Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?Lost
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Won
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Won
Yes$11 @ 65.0¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
Yes$15 @ 41.0¢
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in December?Won
No$30 @ 73.4¢
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March?Lost
Yes$5 @ 37.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Economy	Yes	$157	53.5¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	Politics	Yes	$143	23.2¢
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$115	33.6¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$100	44.9¢

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Economy
Yes$157 @ 53.5¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?Politics
Yes$143 @ 23.2¢
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$115 @ 33.6¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$100 @ 44.9¢