0x7a09…8cdb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7a091425c544ae8b25c1dd6592472aab15508cdb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-13.4pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

13% @ 26.9¢

Brier

0.090

Resolved

134

Avg size

$88

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	57% (8/14)	+28%	14
Other	38% (3/8)	+9%	8
Economy	33% (1/3)	+85%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+5%	2
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-57%	2

Politics14 bets
Hit rate
57% (8/14)
ROI
+28%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+9%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+85%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-57%

Track record

48% hit · 14/29

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier	GamerLegion	$11	37.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A	LGD Gaming	$20	61.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	$500	50.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	72.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	Legacy	$15	57.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$760	19.0¢	Lost
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Detroit Tigers	$41	40.5¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Legacy	$15	31.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$413	82.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$490	49.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$620	31.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	No	$17	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	No	$320	32.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$720	36.0¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$86	43.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$980	49.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	$1.1k	86.7¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$336	17.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$766	47.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$160	20.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$1.5k	49.0¢	Won
Targu Mures: Laura Samson vs Mia Ristic	Mia Ristic	$62	45.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$350	35.0¢	Won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles	Philadelphia Phillies	$31	49.0¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$1.5k	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$836	83.6¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	$165	33.0¢	Lost

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance QualifierLost
GamerLegion$11 @ 37.0¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group AWon
LGD Gaming$20 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Lost
No$500 @ 50.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 72.0¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsWon
Legacy$15 @ 57.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$760 @ 19.0¢
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesLost
Detroit Tigers$41 @ 40.5¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerWon
Legacy$15 @ 31.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$413 @ 82.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$490 @ 49.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$620 @ 31.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Lost
No$17 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$5 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Won
No$320 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$720 @ 36.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$86 @ 43.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$980 @ 49.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
No$1.1k @ 86.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$336 @ 17.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$766 @ 47.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$160 @ 20.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 49.0¢
Targu Mures: Laura Samson vs Mia RisticLost
Mia Ristic$62 @ 45.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$350 @ 35.0¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesLost
Philadelphia Phillies$31 @ 49.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$1.5k @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$836 @ 83.6¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Lost
No$165 @ 33.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$502	42.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$230	23.0¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier	Sports	GamerLegion	$11	37.0¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$502 @ 42.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$230 @ 23.0¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance QualifierSports
GamerLegion$11 @ 37.0¢