0x78b3…a139

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x78b3ae0dc14ac069c7212d02cfe969d43465a139
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.3pp

ROI

+43%

Win rate

21% @ 17.1¢

Brier

0.125

Resolved

440

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	28% (34/123)	+17%	123
Politics	9% (2/22)	-77%	22
Other	20% (4/20)	+76%	20
Tech	0% (0/10)	-100%	10
Crypto	33% (2/6)	+69%	6
Economy	33% (1/3)	+167%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+15%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Science123 bets
Hit rate
28% (34/123)
ROI
+17%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
9% (2/22)
ROI
-77%
Other20 bets
Hit rate
20% (4/20)
ROI
+76%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/10)
ROI
-100%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+69%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+167%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

23% hit · 44/188

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	$4	36.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	$5	27.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	$7	22.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$10	6.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on October 29?	Yes	$2	16.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 20?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	40.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 29?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 19?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 26?	Yes	$4	22.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 20?	Yes	$7	69.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	$6	10.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	21.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	$3	16.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	$5	52.0¢	Lost
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare?	Yes	$55	11.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	Yes	$106	7.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 29?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 29?	Yes	$0	2.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	$27	2.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on October 22?	Yes	$3	34.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 24?	Yes	$3	34.0¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	$6	30.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	$7	33.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 21?	Yes	$10	34.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on October 29?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 22?	Yes	$20	8.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 23?	Yes	$10	50.5¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	$16	7.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	$8	41.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 23?	Yes	$22	43.4¢	Lost
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	$9	43.0¢	Won
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?	No	$23	20.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 21?	Yes	$11	55.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$2	1.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 23?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 28?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 24?	Yes	$8	41.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on October 28?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 26?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on October 26?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 23?	Yes	$5	39.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?Lost
Yes$4 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 26?Won
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$7 @ 22.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$10 @ 6.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 40.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 26?Lost
Yes$4 @ 22.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 20?Won
Yes$7 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$6 @ 10.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 21.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 24?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 27?Won
Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 22?Lost
Yes$5 @ 52.0¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare?Lost
Yes$55 @ 11.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?Lost
Yes$106 @ 7.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Lost
Yes$27 @ 2.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on October 22?Lost
Yes$3 @ 34.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 24?Won
Yes$3 @ 34.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$6 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 26?Won
Yes$7 @ 33.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 21?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 22?Lost
Yes$20 @ 8.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 23?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Lost
No$16 @ 7.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 26?Won
Yes$8 @ 41.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 23?Lost
Yes$22 @ 43.4¢
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 21?Won
Yes$9 @ 43.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 20.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 21?Won
Yes$11 @ 55.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 28?Lost
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 24?Won
Yes$8 @ 41.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on October 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on October 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 23?Lost
Yes$5 @ 39.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$70	20.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	Politics	No	$45	22.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$36	29.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	9.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	9.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	9.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$23	45.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$19	19.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$19	19.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$18	5.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	9.6¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	0.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$7	13.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$7	0.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$6	6.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	0.4¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$5	0.5¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	0.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$3	26.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3	5.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$2	15.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1	10.0¢

Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$70 @ 20.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 22.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$36 @ 29.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 9.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 9.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 9.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$23 @ 45.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Politics
Yes$19 @ 19.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Politics
Yes$19 @ 19.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Politics
Yes$18 @ 5.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 9.6¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 0.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Politics
Yes$7 @ 13.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$7 @ 0.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 0.4¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢