0x7803…9e91

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7803ddf6a3ee55dc0ca81e727eba23a627359e91
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

72% @ 65.2¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

992

Avg size

$60

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	61% (43/71)	+23%	71
Sports	63% (36/57)	-21%	57
Other	59% (16/27)	-17%	27
Geopolitics	74% (14/19)	-16%	19
Economy	44% (4/9)	-19%	9
Tech	100% (3/3)	+44%	3
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+53%	1

Politics71 bets
Hit rate
61% (43/71)
ROI
+23%
Sports57 bets
Hit rate
63% (36/57)
ROI
-21%
Other27 bets
Hit rate
59% (16/27)
ROI
-17%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
74% (14/19)
ROI
-16%
Economy9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-19%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+44%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+53%

Track record

63% hit · 117/187

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$318	84.0¢	Won
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$43	85.0¢	Won
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$5	42.0¢	Lost
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$5	60.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$572	69.5¢	Won
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$21	66.3¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$2.5k	57.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$583	42.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$19	42.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$292	72.5¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$53	86.7¢	Won
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	$3	43.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$94	42.5¢	Lost
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$28	76.2¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$842	65.8¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$83	40.9¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$590	74.4¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$269	66.1¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$14	70.9¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$22	43.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$5	47.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$108	70.8¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	48.5¢	Lost
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$37	74.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	85.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$40	55.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$292	55.9¢	Won
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5	48.0¢	Won
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$259	49.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	$204	62.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$69	80.2¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	31.0¢	Lost
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$5	69.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	$37	73.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$535	81.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$817	70.8¢	Won
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$572	75.8¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$530	68.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$29	68.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$1.5k	51.2¢	Lost
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$15	33.7¢	Lost
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$223	66.3¢	Won
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?	Yes	$25	63.6¢	Won
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$20	78.2¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$1.6k	85.1¢	Won
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$33	76.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	$80	80.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	$164	81.1¢	Lost
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	$2	68.0¢	Won

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$318 @ 84.0¢
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$43 @ 85.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
No$5 @ 42.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$5 @ 60.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$572 @ 69.5¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$21 @ 66.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$2.5k @ 57.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$583 @ 42.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 42.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$292 @ 72.5¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$53 @ 86.7¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesLost
Tampa Bay Rays$3 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$94 @ 42.5¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$28 @ 76.2¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$842 @ 65.8¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$83 @ 40.9¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$590 @ 74.4¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$269 @ 66.1¢
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$14 @ 70.9¢
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$22 @ 43.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$108 @ 70.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 48.5¢
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title?Lost
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$37 @ 74.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 85.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 55.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$292 @ 55.9¢
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$5 @ 48.0¢
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$259 @ 49.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Won
No$204 @ 62.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$69 @ 80.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 31.0¢
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.0¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Won
Yes$37 @ 73.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$535 @ 81.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$817 @ 70.8¢
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$572 @ 75.8¢
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
No$530 @ 68.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$29 @ 68.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 51.2¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$15 @ 33.7¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$223 @ 66.3¢
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Won
Yes$25 @ 63.6¢
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$20 @ 78.2¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$1.6k @ 85.1¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$33 @ 76.0¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Lost
No$164 @ 81.1¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Won
Yes$2 @ 68.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$4.5k	79.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$786	80.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$638	70.0¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$599	81.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$568	59.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$540	72.1¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Sports	Yes	$484	80.1¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Politics	No	$368	85.0¢
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$360	87.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$337	35.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$319	86.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$287	57.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$281	69.1¢
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$243	86.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$239	78.2¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	No	$204	73.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$181	67.1¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	No	$117	87.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$91	30.0¢
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$74	83.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$43	86.0¢
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	No	$41	82.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$40	78.0¢
Will Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) win Record of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	No	$38	75.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	No	$37	74.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$36	71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$35	70.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Politics	No	$35	69.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$34	78.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$34	68.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$4.5k @ 79.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$786 @ 80.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$638 @ 70.0¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$599 @ 81.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$568 @ 59.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$540 @ 72.1¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?Sports
Yes$484 @ 80.1¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics
No$368 @ 85.0¢
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$360 @ 87.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$337 @ 35.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$319 @ 86.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$287 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$281 @ 69.1¢
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$243 @ 86.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$239 @ 78.2¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
No$204 @ 73.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Politics
No$181 @ 67.1¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
No$117 @ 87.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Politics
Yes$91 @ 30.0¢
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Geopolitics
No$74 @ 83.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
No$41 @ 82.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 78.0¢
Will Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) win Record of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
No$38 @ 75.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
No$37 @ 74.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$36 @ 71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Politics
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?Politics
No$35 @ 69.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
No$34 @ 78.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$34 @ 68.0¢