0x7762…a8de

Specialization by sphere

• Other43 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (25/43)

  ROI

  +51%

• Politics5 bets

  Hit rate

  20% (1/5)

  ROI

  -64%

• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$35 @ 80.2¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 17.0¢
• Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?Won
  No$30 @ 88.0¢
• Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
  No$32 @ 7.2¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
  No$30 @ 18.6¢
• Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$41 @ 85.9¢
• Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Won
  No$7 @ 34.4¢
• Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
• Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?Won
  No$5 @ 90.0¢
• Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
  No$90 @ 18.1¢
• Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?Won
  No$4 @ 87.0¢
• Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Won
  Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
• Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?Lost
  No$10 @ 63.0¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 46.3¢
• Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Lost
  No$9 @ 67.0¢
• Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Won
  Yes$55 @ 21.1¢
• Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 34.0¢
• Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
  Yes$23 @ 9.0¢
• 30% EU tariff in effect by August 1?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
• Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
  No$10 @ 34.0¢
• Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
  No$14 @ 25.6¢
• Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 20.0¢
• Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?Won
  No$5 @ 78.0¢
• Starmer out in 2025?Won
  No$15 @ 80.9¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?Lost
  No$2 @ 6.3¢
• Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
  No$42 @ 18.7¢
• Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
  Yes$29 @ 16.0¢
• Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Won
  Yes$30 @ 86.7¢
• Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?Won
  No$13 @ 85.0¢
• Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Won
  No$10 @ 58.0¢
• Fetterman out in 2025?Won
  No$2 @ 68.0¢
• Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Won
  No$38 @ 62.0¢
• Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 32.0¢
• Will Trump be impeached in 2025?Won
  No$8 @ 89.0¢
• Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by August 31?Won
  No$23 @ 57.4¢
• Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Won
  No$5 @ 65.0¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$36 @ 56.2¢
• Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 17.5¢
• Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Lost
  No$10 @ 69.0¢
• Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
• Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?Won
  No$5 @ 86.0¢
• Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Won
  No$57 @ 24.3¢
• Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 61.5¢
• Will the next US Speaker be elected in one ballot?Won
  Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
• Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?Won
  Yes$12 @ 80.0¢
• Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?Won
  Yes$6 @ 57.0¢
• Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Won
  No$19 @ 74.8¢
• Polish snap election called in 2025?Won
  No$6 @ 71.0¢

Current positions

• US recession by end of 2027?Economy
  No$132 @ 66.0¢
• Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?Politics
  No$63 @ 70.3¢