← Smart money
0x767b…6512
ProfitableEdge
-7.7pp
ROI
+10%
Win rate
65% @ 72.4¢
Brier
0.268
Resolved
238
Avg size
$5
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 50% (2/4) | +10% | 4 |
| Politics | 75% (3/4) | +22% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (1/2) | -35% | 2 |
- Sports4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +10%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +22%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -35%
Track record
60% hit · 6/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | $14 | 68.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | No | $34 | 85.6¢ | Won |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | Yes | $4 | 60.5¢ | Lost |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $12 | 6.0¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $15 | 85.0¢ | Won |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | $385 | 75.1¢ | Lost |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $105 | 22.8¢ | Won |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | $567 | 79.4¢ | Won |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $7 | 21.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | $19 | 72.0¢ | Won |
- No$14 @ 68.0¢
- No$34 @ 85.6¢
- Yes$4 @ 60.5¢
- Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
- No$15 @ 85.0¢
- No$385 @ 75.1¢
- Yes$105 @ 22.8¢
- No$567 @ 79.4¢
- Yes$7 @ 21.0¢
- No$19 @ 72.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Politics | No | $100 | 93.4¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $14 | 76.9¢ |
- No$100 @ 93.4¢
- Yes$14 @ 76.9¢