0x74ff…7926

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x74ffbd4f47c11ebcdeba9ff26c68567ca2267926
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+16.9pp

ROI

+44%

Win rate

45% @ 28.2¢

Brier

0.256

Resolved

Avg size

$27

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (4/12)	+104%	12
Sports	64% (7/11)	+192%	11
Economy	17% (1/6)	-21%	6
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
+104%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+192%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-21%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

34% hit · 12/35

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$8	32.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$5	52.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?	Yes	$31	30.0¢	Lost
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$52	17.3¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	46.2¢	Won
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Argentina	$10	37.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	$51	54.3¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	No	$20	59.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$52	15.2¢	Lost
Will Spain win the World Cup?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	$52	33.9¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?	Yes	$20	48.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	31.9¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	37.0¢	Won
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Germany	$10	49.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$187	22.0¢	Won
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in September?	Yes	$21	6.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$96	54.5¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	No	$31	19.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	Yes	$21	1.8¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$51	16.1¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$153	55.3¢	Won
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?	Yes	$21	8.9¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?	Yes	$73	11.3¢	Lost
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$12	2.0¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$10	29.0¢	Won
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Scotland	$10	39.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$20	44.0¢	Won
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26	15.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$47	2.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$98	41.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	$51	35.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.275T by September 30?	Yes	$21	5.8¢	Lost
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	25.0¢	Lost
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	$20	51.0¢	Lost

Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?Lost
Yes$8 @ 32.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 52.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?Lost
Yes$31 @ 30.0¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$52 @ 17.3¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$20 @ 46.2¢
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Lost
Argentina$10 @ 37.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Lost
Yes$51 @ 54.3¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Won
No$20 @ 59.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$52 @ 15.2¢
Will Spain win the World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Lost
No$52 @ 33.9¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?Lost
Yes$20 @ 48.0¢
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$20 @ 31.9¢
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 37.0¢
Spread: Germany (-3.5)Won
Germany$10 @ 49.0¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$187 @ 22.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in September?Lost
Yes$21 @ 6.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$96 @ 54.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?Lost
No$31 @ 19.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?Lost
Yes$21 @ 1.8¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$51 @ 16.1¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$153 @ 55.3¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?Lost
Yes$21 @ 8.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?Lost
Yes$73 @ 11.3¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.0¢
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
Yes$10 @ 29.0¢
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)Lost
Scotland$10 @ 39.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 44.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$26 @ 15.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$47 @ 2.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$98 @ 41.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Lost
Yes$51 @ 35.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.275T by September 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.8¢
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 25.0¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Lost
Spain$20 @ 51.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$800	47.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$710	37.8¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$550	39.9¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$300	14.3¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$240	22.7¢
Will Ipswich Town be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Sports	Yes	$70	43.5¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$60	12.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$50	24.9¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$50	33.0¢
Will Alexander Isak (Liverpool) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Sports	Yes	$40	11.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$20	35.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$20	29.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$5	12.0¢

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$800 @ 47.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$710 @ 37.8¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$550 @ 39.9¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$300 @ 14.3¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$240 @ 22.7¢
Will Ipswich Town be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Sports
Yes$70 @ 43.5¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$60 @ 12.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$50 @ 24.9¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
Yes$50 @ 33.0¢
Will Alexander Isak (Liverpool) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?Sports
Yes$40 @ 11.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$20 @ 35.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$20 @ 29.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢