0x74b4…6bea

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x74b4f9447b14b12308963fc048ae363eb0756bea
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+5.3pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

55% @ 49.5¢

Brier

0.224

Resolved

2031

Avg size

$145

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (74/136)	+10%	136
Tech	47% (8/17)	+0%	17
Economy	56% (5/9)	+17%	9
Politics	75% (3/4)	+61%	4
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other136 bets
Hit rate
54% (74/136)
ROI
+10%
Tech17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
+0%
Economy9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
+17%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+61%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 90/168

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	No	$1.5k	80.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$9.6k	82.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$4.5k	27.3¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$39	3.2¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?	No	$800	80.0¢	Won
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$288	6.9¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$704	70.4¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	No	$1.2k	62.8¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	Yes	$1.1k	55.4¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$6.3k	87.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	$105	86.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	No	$381	45.8¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$800	80.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	No	$7.3k	71.2¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	No	$104	57.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	Yes	$815	39.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$690	69.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?	Yes	$6	4.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$4.1k	83.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?	Yes	$33	1.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$3.4k	23.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$905	18.1¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?	No	$3.9k	77.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?	No	$2.2k	80.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$1.7k	84.5¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?	No	$941	74.8¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?	Yes	$60	42.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?	Yes	$35	5.8¢	Lost
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	Yes	$125	25.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	$24	80.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	$579	14.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	$2.2k	77.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$2.4k	80.5¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$260	26.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	$430	86.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$2.4k	53.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$729	58.4¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?	Yes	$630	11.7¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?	Yes	$7	5.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$184	38.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	59.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?	No	$708	83.2¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?	No	$522	48.5¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?	Yes	$394	36.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$72	29.8¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$18.1k	69.2¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei	No	$422	76.8¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?	Yes	$35	9.9¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost

Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Won
No$1.5k @ 80.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$9.6k @ 82.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 27.3¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$39 @ 3.2¢
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?Won
No$800 @ 80.0¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$288 @ 6.9¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$704 @ 70.4¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Won
No$1.2k @ 62.8¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 55.4¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$6.3k @ 87.0¢
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?Won
No$105 @ 86.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?Won
No$381 @ 45.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$800 @ 80.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?Won
No$7.3k @ 71.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Lost
No$104 @ 57.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Won
Yes$815 @ 39.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$690 @ 69.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$4.1k @ 83.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 1.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$3.4k @ 23.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$905 @ 18.1¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?Won
No$3.9k @ 77.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Won
No$2.2k @ 80.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$1.7k @ 84.5¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?Won
No$941 @ 74.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?Lost
Yes$60 @ 42.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 5.8¢
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?Lost
Yes$125 @ 25.0¢
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?Won
No$24 @ 80.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Lost
Yes$579 @ 14.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Won
No$2.2k @ 77.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 80.5¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$260 @ 26.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Won
Yes$430 @ 86.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$2.4k @ 53.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$729 @ 58.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Lost
Yes$630 @ 11.7¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.6¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$184 @ 38.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 59.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?Won
No$708 @ 83.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?Won
No$522 @ 48.5¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?Lost
Yes$394 @ 36.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$72 @ 29.8¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$18.1k @ 69.2¢
Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiWon
No$422 @ 76.8¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?Lost
Yes$35 @ 9.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$38.6k	82.7¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$13.2k	94.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$9.0k	90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$4.9k	90.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4.3k	86.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$3.7k	73.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$3.4k	88.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Other	No	$2.9k	98.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Other	No	$2.8k	91.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	Other	No	$1.9k	96.1¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$1.7k	75.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	Other	No	$1.6k	99.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	88.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.5k	94.9¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in September?	Other	No	$1.5k	96.9¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	Other	No	$1.1k	88.4¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in September?	Other	No	$1.0k	98.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	Other	No	$977	99.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in September?	Other	No	$784	98.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Politics	No	$690	69.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$563	83.8¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Politics	No	$553	62.9¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$544	89.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$243	94.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in September?	Other	No	$198	98.9¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	Other	Yes	$181	25.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$103	82.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	Other	No	$23	91.0¢

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$38.6k @ 82.7¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$13.2k @ 94.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$9.0k @ 90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$4.9k @ 90.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4.3k @ 86.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Other
No$3.7k @ 73.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
No$3.4k @ 88.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?Other
No$2.9k @ 98.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Other
No$2.8k @ 91.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?Other
No$1.9k @ 96.1¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?Other
No$1.7k @ 75.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?Other
No$1.6k @ 99.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 88.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.5k @ 94.9¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in September?Other
No$1.5k @ 96.9¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?Other
No$1.1k @ 88.4¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in September?Other
No$1.0k @ 98.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?Other
No$977 @ 99.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in September?Other
No$784 @ 98.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics
No$690 @ 69.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?Other
No$563 @ 83.8¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics
No$553 @ 62.9¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?Other
No$544 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$243 @ 94.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in September?Other
No$198 @ 98.9¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?Other
Yes$181 @ 25.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$103 @ 82.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?Other
No$23 @ 91.0¢