0x741d…e35c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x741d9afd772554262a3c319e4e26cfa9d922e35c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.6pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

69% @ 57.3¢

Brier

0.105

Resolved

122

Avg size

$167

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (25/51)	+30%	51
Politics	100% (6/6)	+35%	6
Geopolitics	100% (6/6)	+18%	6

Other51 bets
Hit rate
49% (25/51)
ROI
+30%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+35%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+18%

Track record

59% hit · 37/63

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$200	82.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	Yes	$20	19.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	No	$100	83.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$289	37.2¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$300	55.1¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?	Yes	$90	65.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?	No	$996	78.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	$150	49.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?	No	$800	66.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$500	90.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Sumy before October?	No	$200	85.0¢	Won
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?	Yes	$50	14.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?	No	$358	70.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?	No	$19	1.7¢	Lost
Will Ukraine recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by October 31?	Yes	$60	25.2¢	Won
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?	Yes	$50	16.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?	No	$200	89.0¢	Won
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?	Yes	$50	18.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?	No	$50	24.6¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$50	28.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?	No	$57	57.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?	No	$109	54.6¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?	Yes	$30	24.4¢	Lost
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?	Yes	$50	28.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by September 30?	No	$792	82.5¢	Won
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?	Yes	$50	42.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?	No	$500	18.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?	No	$575	72.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?	No	$894	86.1¢	Won
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?	Yes	$50	18.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	$650	86.6¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?	Yes	$47	23.3¢	Lost
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?	Yes	$132	54.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	No	$700	86.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$1.1k	83.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$570	74.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?	No	$400	71.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?	No	$318	11.8¢	Lost
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?	Yes	$49	14.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?	No	$500	67.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?	No	$347	81.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?	No	$200	71.0¢	Won
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	$150	31.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	$150	48.6¢	Won
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?	Yes	$500	83.0¢	Won
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$300	51.0¢	Lost
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	Yes	$25	27.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?	No	$1.0k	76.2¢	Won
Azerbaijan x Armenia peace deal in 2025?	Yes	$53	66.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?	No	$350	78.1¢	Won

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$200 @ 82.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Lost
Yes$20 @ 19.0¢
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?Won
No$100 @ 83.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$289 @ 37.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$300 @ 55.1¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?Lost
Yes$90 @ 65.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?Won
No$996 @ 78.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Won
No$150 @ 49.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Won
No$800 @ 66.6¢
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$500 @ 90.0¢
Will Russia capture Sumy before October?Won
No$200 @ 85.0¢
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?Lost
Yes$50 @ 14.0¢
Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?Won
No$358 @ 70.4¢
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?Lost
No$19 @ 1.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by October 31?Won
Yes$60 @ 25.2¢
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 16.0¢
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?Won
No$200 @ 89.0¢
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?Lost
Yes$50 @ 18.4¢
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?Lost
No$50 @ 24.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$50 @ 28.0¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?Lost
No$57 @ 57.2¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?Lost
No$109 @ 54.6¢
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Lost
Yes$30 @ 24.4¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 28.0¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by September 30?Won
No$792 @ 82.5¢
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 42.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?Won
No$500 @ 18.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?Won
No$575 @ 72.3¢
Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?Won
No$894 @ 86.1¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 18.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?Won
No$650 @ 86.6¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?Lost
Yes$47 @ 23.3¢
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?Won
Yes$132 @ 54.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Won
No$700 @ 86.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 83.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
No$570 @ 74.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?Won
No$400 @ 71.6¢
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?Lost
No$318 @ 11.8¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?Lost
Yes$49 @ 14.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?Won
No$500 @ 67.5¢
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?Won
No$347 @ 81.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?Won
No$200 @ 71.0¢
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Won
Yes$150 @ 31.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Won
No$150 @ 48.6¢
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?Won
Yes$500 @ 83.0¢
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Lost
Yes$300 @ 51.0¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?Lost
Yes$25 @ 27.8¢
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?Won
No$1.0k @ 76.2¢
Azerbaijan x Armenia peace deal in 2025?Won
Yes$53 @ 66.3¢
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?Won
No$350 @ 78.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2.3k	73.5¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.8k	74.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	55.5¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.5k	74.4¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1000	75.3¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$450	56.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$100	97.9¢

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$2.3k @ 73.5¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.8k @ 74.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 55.5¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.5k @ 74.4¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1000 @ 75.3¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$450 @ 56.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 97.9¢