0x73ec…f5bb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x73ecf6a30d3c6538cd931ec13c9ed6eba944f5bb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+23.0pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

69% @ 46.2¢

Brier

0.178

Resolved

360

Avg size

$110

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (32/53)	+47%	53
Tech	71% (12/17)	+6%	17
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+144%	2

Other53 bets
Hit rate
60% (32/53)
ROI
+47%
Tech17 bets
Hit rate
71% (12/17)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+144%

Track record

64% hit · 46/72

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?	Yes	$45	30.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	Yes	$155	72.0¢	Won
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$929	47.3¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$3.4k	56.1¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$450	60.6¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$5	60.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$149	54.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$158	54.5¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?	Yes	$6	86.0¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?	Yes	$1.6k	72.8¢	Won
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	$59	88.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?	Yes	$24	3.2¢	Lost
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?	Yes	$28	2.8¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$6.0k	85.8¢	Won
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$46	65.0¢	Won
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$39	40.3¢	Lost
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?	No	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?	Yes	$642	27.5¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?	Yes	$21	9.6¢	Lost
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris say "Biden" during Colbert show on July 31?	Yes	$16	81.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 25?	No	$105	70.0¢	Won
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31?	No	$405	83.0¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?	Yes	$90	69.0¢	Won
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$54	12.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$98	87.4¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$121	88.0¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$355	10.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	$1.4k	59.5¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$51	7.5¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	62.0¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?	Yes	$973	89.0¢	Won
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	78.1¢	Won
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$999	48.3¢	Won
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$4.8k	49.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	No	$6	55.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$617	42.6¢	Won
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?	Yes	$10	47.0¢	Lost
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$88	43.1¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	Yes	$165	79.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$164	83.2¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$100	72.9¢	Won
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$21	61.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?	Yes	$82	14.5¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?	Yes	$274	85.6¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31?	Yes	$126	55.3¢	Won
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?	Yes	$4	2.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?	Yes	$97	81.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$12	5.6¢	Lost

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Lost
Yes$45 @ 30.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Won
Yes$155 @ 72.0¢
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
No$929 @ 47.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 56.1¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 60.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$149 @ 54.3¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$158 @ 54.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Won
Yes$6 @ 86.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 72.8¢
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
No$59 @ 88.0¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 3.2¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?Lost
Yes$28 @ 2.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6.0k @ 85.8¢
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
No$46 @ 65.0¢
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$39 @ 40.3¢
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?Lost
No$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Won
Yes$642 @ 27.5¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 9.6¢
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Kamala Harris say "Biden" during Colbert show on July 31?Won
Yes$16 @ 81.0¢
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 25?Won
No$105 @ 70.0¢
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31?Won
No$405 @ 83.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?Won
Yes$90 @ 69.0¢
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$54 @ 12.2¢
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$98 @ 87.4¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$121 @ 88.0¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
Yes$355 @ 10.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 59.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$51 @ 7.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 62.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?Won
Yes$973 @ 89.0¢
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 78.1¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
No$999 @ 48.3¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$4.8k @ 49.1¢
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
No$6 @ 55.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Won
Yes$617 @ 42.6¢
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?Lost
Yes$10 @ 47.0¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$88 @ 43.1¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?Won
Yes$165 @ 79.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$164 @ 83.2¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 72.9¢
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 61.2¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?Lost
Yes$82 @ 14.5¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Won
Yes$274 @ 85.6¢
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31?Won
Yes$126 @ 55.3¢
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.1¢
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Won
Yes$97 @ 81.3¢
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
Yes$12 @ 5.6¢

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