0x72f7…4345

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other93 bets

  Hit rate

  72% (67/93)

  ROI

  +31%

• Politics43 bets

  Hit rate

  79% (34/43)

  ROI

  +46%

• Geopolitics24 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (14/24)

  ROI

  -3%

• Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
  No$69 @ 87.0¢
• Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$18 @ 82.9¢
• Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$86 @ 52.2¢
• Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
  No$223 @ 70.2¢
• Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$27 @ 76.0¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
  No$116 @ 80.7¢
• GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$90 @ 89.8¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$5 @ 34.7¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
  Yes$336 @ 78.4¢
• Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Won
  No$44 @ 80.1¢
• Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
  No$46 @ 70.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$282 @ 15.2¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$269 @ 76.0¢
• Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$204 @ 81.1¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$26 @ 44.8¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
  No$18 @ 43.9¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
  No$55 @ 80.2¢
• Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
  Yes$76 @ 53.0¢
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$29 @ 18.7¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 60.0¢
• Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
  No$116 @ 74.1¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
  No$42 @ 76.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$391 @ 62.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$377 @ 54.5¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
  No$230 @ 75.5¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
  No$36 @ 27.2¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
  No$550 @ 75.3¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
  No$309 @ 87.1¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
  Yes$222 @ 77.3¢
• Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Won
  Yes$100 @ 90.0¢
• Pacers vs. WizardsWon
  Wizards$25 @ 53.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 51.0¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
  No$550 @ 86.5¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$62 @ 86.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
  Yes$47 @ 28.9¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
  Yes$99 @ 69.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$538 @ 74.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$184 @ 74.4¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
  No$146 @ 68.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
  No$550 @ 80.7¢
• Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?Won
  No$70 @ 63.2¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
  Yes$173 @ 54.5¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
  No$514 @ 76.5¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 35.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$19 @ 28.8¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$296 @ 85.9¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$15 @ 66.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$387 @ 50.5¢
• US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
  No$11 @ 51.3¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
  No$319 @ 88.6¢

Current positions

• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$375 @ 61.5¢
• Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$335 @ 77.8¢