0x72f7…4345

Specialization by sphere

• Other41 bets

  Hit rate

  63% (26/41)

  ROI

  -10%

• Politics18 bets

  Hit rate

  78% (14/18)

  ROI

  +37%

• Geopolitics7 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (5/7)

  ROI

  -9%

• Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$86 @ 52.2¢
• Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
  No$223 @ 70.2¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$5 @ 34.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$282 @ 15.2¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 60.0¢
• Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
  No$116 @ 74.1¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$391 @ 62.2¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
  No$550 @ 75.3¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
  No$550 @ 86.5¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$62 @ 86.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
  Yes$47 @ 28.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
  No$550 @ 80.7¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
  Yes$173 @ 54.5¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
  No$514 @ 76.5¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 35.0¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$296 @ 85.9¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$15 @ 66.0¢
• US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
  No$11 @ 51.3¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
  No$319 @ 88.6¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
  No$169 @ 80.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$432 @ 64.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
  No$103 @ 25.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
  Yes$263 @ 68.3¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$20 @ 43.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$864 @ 48.6¢
• Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$32 @ 69.9¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$32 @ 45.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$550 @ 37.2¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
  No$72 @ 87.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$267 @ 56.8¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?Won
  No$97 @ 85.1¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$27 @ 79.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$133 @ 75.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
  Yes$150 @ 28.3¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$46 @ 65.0¢
• Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$88 @ 79.0¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$64 @ 43.2¢
• Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?Won
  No$17 @ 61.5¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
  Yes$173 @ 66.5¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
  No$550 @ 76.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$58 @ 82.0¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
  No$553 @ 82.4¢
• Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$13 @ 79.8¢
• Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
  No$550 @ 61.3¢
• US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 24.0¢
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Won
  No$177 @ 69.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
  Yes$3 @ 41.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$52 @ 29.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$237 @ 42.3¢

Current positions

• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$551 @ 77.8¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$467 @ 61.5¢
• Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$390 @ 85.1¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?—
  Yes$283 @ 61.1¢
• Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$239 @ 79.5¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$173 @ 30.0¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
  Yes$75 @ 53.3¢
• Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
  No$69 @ 87.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$60 @ 59.0¢
• Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?—
  Yes$21 @ 32.2¢
• Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?—
  No$12 @ 86.0¢
• China ballistic missile launch by December 31?—
  Yes$9 @ 18.0¢