0x71dd…d61c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x71dd2d539a793687451d4af8c43169369b47d61c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

43% @ 38.1¢

Brier

0.171

Resolved

856

Avg size

$278

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (170/426)	+31%	426
Politics	67% (4/6)	+26%	6
Economy	83% (5/6)	+74%	6
Sports	50% (1/2)	-88%	2
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+24%	2

Other426 bets
Hit rate
40% (170/426)
ROI
+31%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+26%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+74%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-88%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+24%

Track record

41% hit · 182/442

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?	No	$500	86.5¢	Won
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?	No	$550	37.8¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?	Yes	$20	16.5¢	Won
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	$3.7k	44.6¢	Lost
Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?	Yes	$400	31.1¢	Won
Trump x Xi talk before July?	Yes	$775	51.3¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$101	67.0¢	Won
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?	No	$155	53.6¢	Won
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?	No	$450	83.3¢	Won
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	No	$351	68.5¢	Won
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$100	22.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	Yes	$25	50.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	Yes	$15	9.2¢	Lost
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?	Yes	$1.0k	81.4¢	Won
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?	No	$47	30.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$30	37.2¢	Lost
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	Yes	$750	36.9¢	Lost
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?	Yes	$46	48.5¢	Won
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$25	15.9¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	$29	14.5¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	No	$500	74.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$132	27.9¢	Lost
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31?	Yes	$5	9.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Stupid" during Meloni visit on April 17?	Yes	$8	40.0¢	Lost
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?	No	$3	11.0¢	Won
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?	Yes	$220	90.0¢	Lost
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	Yes	$28.5k	29.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Putin" during Meloni visit on April 17?	Yes	$16	39.0¢	Won
Winning candidate also wins popular vote?	No	$350	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	Yes	$43	34.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?	Yes	$36	38.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?	Yes	$25	44.5¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?	Yes	$1.1k	62.7¢	Lost
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025?	No	$608	85.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	$6	29.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk endorse the Big Beautiful Bill?	Yes	$17	15.2¢	Lost
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$191	85.0¢	Won
Will Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?	Yes	$20	60.0¢	Won
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April?	No	$3.9k	89.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Prize" this week?	Yes	$10	60.7¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	1.3¢	Lost
NBA Finals: Will any game go to overtime?	Yes	$25	17.2¢	Lost
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?	Yes	$5	19.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
House control after 2024 election?	Democratic	$57	50.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China before September?	Yes	$15	6.9¢	Lost
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	$10	10.1¢	Lost

Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?Won
No$500 @ 86.5¢
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Won
No$550 @ 37.8¢
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?Won
Yes$20 @ 16.5¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 44.6¢
Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Won
Yes$400 @ 31.1¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Won
Yes$775 @ 51.3¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$101 @ 67.0¢
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?Won
No$155 @ 53.6¢
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?Won
No$450 @ 83.3¢
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Won
No$351 @ 68.5¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$100 @ 22.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Won
Yes$25 @ 50.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?Lost
Yes$15 @ 9.2¢
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 81.4¢
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?Won
No$47 @ 30.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$30 @ 37.2¢
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?Lost
Yes$750 @ 36.9¢
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Won
Yes$46 @ 48.5¢
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?Lost
Yes$25 @ 15.9¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Lost
Yes$29 @ 14.5¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Lost
No$500 @ 74.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$132 @ 27.9¢
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.9¢
Will Trump say "Stupid" during Meloni visit on April 17?Lost
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?Won
No$3 @ 11.0¢
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?Lost
Yes$220 @ 90.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Won
Yes$28.5k @ 29.6¢
Will Trump say "Putin" during Meloni visit on April 17?Won
Yes$16 @ 39.0¢
Winning candidate also wins popular vote?Lost
No$350 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Won
Yes$43 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?Lost
Yes$36 @ 38.8¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?Lost
Yes$25 @ 44.5¢
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 62.7¢
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025?Won
No$608 @ 85.6¢
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Lost
Yes$6 @ 29.0¢
Will Elon Musk endorse the Big Beautiful Bill?Lost
Yes$17 @ 15.2¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$191 @ 85.0¢
Will Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?Won
Yes$20 @ 60.0¢
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April?Won
No$3.9k @ 89.8¢
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Prize" this week?Lost
Yes$10 @ 60.7¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$14 @ 1.3¢
NBA Finals: Will any game go to overtime?Lost
Yes$25 @ 17.2¢
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?Won
Yes$5 @ 19.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
House control after 2024 election?Lost
Democratic$57 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump visit China before September?Lost
Yes$15 @ 6.9¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$4.0k	84.8¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$3.7k	92.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$1.6k	27.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	85.0¢
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Economy	Yes	$1.0k	52.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$200	15.0¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Economy	Yes	$73	66.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$37	50.2¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$28	90.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$6	6.7¢
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$3	0.9¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$4.0k @ 84.8¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$3.7k @ 92.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$1.6k @ 27.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 85.0¢
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Economy
Yes$1.0k @ 52.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$200 @ 15.0¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
Yes$73 @ 66.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$37 @ 50.2¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
No$28 @ 90.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$6 @ 6.7¢
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢