← Smart money
0x7131…29cc
SharpEdge
+14.2pp
ROI
+15%
Win rate
90% @ 76.2¢
Brier
0.032
Resolved
94
Avg size
$415
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 78% (7/9) | +18% | 9 |
| Politics | 25% (1/4) | -44% | 4 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +1% | 1 |
- Other9 bets
- Hit rate
- 78% (7/9)
- ROI
- +18%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (1/4)
- ROI
- -44%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +1%
Track record
64% hit · 9/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | $199 | 1.7¢ | Lost |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | $2.3k | 87.6¢ | Won |
| Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | $19.5k | 80.0¢ | Won |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | Yes | $1.3k | 44.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | $15.7k | 87.3¢ | Won |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | Yes | $19 | 53.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | No | $44.1k | 87.5¢ | Won |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | $1.6k | 75.5¢ | Won |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | No | $1.7k | 95.2¢ | Won |
| AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? | No | $195 | 89.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Yes | $1.8k | 41.9¢ | Won |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | $31 | 12.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | $16.1k | 89.5¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $97.3k | 99.3¢ | Won |
- Yes$199 @ 1.7¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 87.6¢
- Yes$19.5k @ 80.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 44.9¢
- No$15.7k @ 87.3¢
- Yes$19 @ 53.9¢
- No$44.1k @ 87.5¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 75.5¢
- No$1.7k @ 95.2¢
- No$195 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 41.9¢
- Yes$31 @ 12.4¢
- Yes$16.1k @ 89.5¢
- No$97.3k @ 99.3¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | — | No | $11.9k | 85.0¢ |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | Politics | Yes | $8.0k | 66.2¢ |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $4.7k | 96.5¢ |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $2.0k | 68.1¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $2.0k | 58.0¢ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Tech | Yes | $1.0k | 83.9¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $785 | 74.0¢ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | — | Yes | $669 | 70.5¢ |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? | — | No | $192 | 96.7¢ |
- No$11.9k @ 85.0¢
- Yes$8.0k @ 66.2¢
- No$4.7k @ 96.5¢
- Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyYes$2.0k @ 68.1¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 58.0¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 83.9¢
- No$785 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$669 @ 70.5¢
- No$192 @ 96.7¢