0x70ff…b65f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x70ffe7b3911e0a9474029a42ab8b2f57b799b65f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-2.5pp

ROI

+55%

Win rate

4% @ 6.1¢

Brier

0.026

Resolved

3084

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	22% (19/85)	+262%	85
Politics	14% (5/37)	-89%	37
Tech	23% (5/22)	-86%	22
Geopolitics	0% (0/9)	-100%	9
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Business	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+233%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other85 bets
Hit rate
22% (19/85)
ROI
+262%
Politics37 bets
Hit rate
14% (5/37)
ROI
-89%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
23% (5/22)
ROI
-86%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/9)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+233%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

19% hit · 30/162

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	$33	82.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	$26	0.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of July 13 2026?	Yes	$18	0.5¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$14	0.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$17	7.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$260	8.1¢	Lost
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?	No	$126	33.2¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$32	15.0¢	Lost
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$19	9.4¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$190	16.9¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$70	3.6¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$605	13.5¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 23 above $360?	No	$45	1.5¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$28	14.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$89	2.5¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$26	52.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$73	6.6¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$551	8.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$800	3.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$14	14.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$106	10.2¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$56	17.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$6	8.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	$45	35.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$53	17.7¢	Lost
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$54	0.4¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	$120	2.9¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	$44	58.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026	No	$70	70.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$539	8.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$93	18.5¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$95	14.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	No	$69	43.9¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	Yes	$132	7.6¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$45	5.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	1.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	$19	19.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$817	9.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$24	12.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	$46	3.3¢	Lost
Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$218	2.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$709	9.1¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$23	1.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$901	5.3¢	Won
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?	Down	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$39	9.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	$41	1.4¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$38	24.4¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	No	$46	37.0¢	Lost

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Won
Yes$33 @ 82.7¢
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 0.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of July 13 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.5¢
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 7.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$260 @ 8.1¢
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
No$126 @ 33.2¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$32 @ 15.0¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 9.4¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$190 @ 16.9¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$70 @ 3.6¢
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$605 @ 13.5¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 23 above $360?Lost
No$45 @ 1.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$28 @ 14.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$89 @ 2.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$26 @ 52.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$73 @ 6.6¢
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$551 @ 8.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$800 @ 3.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$106 @ 10.2¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$56 @ 17.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$6 @ 8.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Lost
Yes$45 @ 35.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$53 @ 17.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 0.4¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Won
No$120 @ 2.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Lost
Yes$44 @ 58.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026Won
No$70 @ 70.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$539 @ 8.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$93 @ 18.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$95 @ 14.0¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026Won
No$69 @ 43.9¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026Lost
Yes$132 @ 7.6¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$45 @ 5.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 1.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Lost
Yes$19 @ 19.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$817 @ 9.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$46 @ 3.3¢
Trump out as President by May 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$218 @ 2.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$709 @ 9.1¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$23 @ 1.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$901 @ 5.3¢
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?Lost
Down$15 @ 15.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$39 @ 9.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Lost
Yes$41 @ 1.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$38 @ 24.4¢
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
No$46 @ 37.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$738	25.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$493	18.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$344	9.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$336	13.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$261	18.6¢
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$247	13.7¢
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$171	24.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$157	25.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$155	3.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$97	43.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Tech	Yes	$95	4.1¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$84	7.9¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$79	0.9¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$78	3.5¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$68	6.2¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$61	7.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$60	8.6¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$57	3.8¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$57	33.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$52	9.9¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$49	11.5¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$47	0.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$46	23.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	No	$43	18.0¢
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$40	18.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$40	8.0¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$40	10.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$40	4.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$38	15.2¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$35	6.0¢

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$738 @ 25.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$493 @ 18.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
No$344 @ 9.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$336 @ 13.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$261 @ 18.6¢
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?Tech
Yes$247 @ 13.7¢
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?Tech
Yes$171 @ 24.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$157 @ 25.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$155 @ 3.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$97 @ 43.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
Yes$95 @ 4.1¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$84 @ 7.9¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$79 @ 0.9¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$78 @ 3.5¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$68 @ 6.2¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$61 @ 7.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$60 @ 8.6¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Politics
Yes$57 @ 3.8¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?Politics
Yes$57 @ 33.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$52 @ 9.9¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$49 @ 11.5¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$47 @ 0.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
No$43 @ 18.0¢
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
Yes$40 @ 18.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?Politics
Yes$40 @ 10.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$38 @ 15.2¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$35 @ 6.0¢