0x6ffb…a834

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6ffb4354cbe6e0f9989e3b55564ec5fb8646a834
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.5pp

ROI

+61%

Win rate

31% @ 18.1¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

288

Avg size

$356

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (67/98)	+25%	98
Politics	27% (15/55)	+6%	55
Sports	35% (6/17)	+16%	17
Geopolitics	13% (2/16)	-38%	16
Crypto	80% (4/5)	+0%	5
Economy	100% (2/2)	+15%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other98 bets
Hit rate
68% (67/98)
ROI
+25%
Politics55 bets
Hit rate
27% (15/55)
ROI
+6%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
35% (6/17)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
13% (2/16)
ROI
-38%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+0%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+15%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 96/194

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$22.0k	85.6¢	Won
Ahn vs. Bernales: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Under	$3	4.9¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$359	33.0¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$1.0k	21.8¢	Won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Coventry City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	$46	86.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$5.5k	77.7¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$35	1.3¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$121	7.2¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$53	2.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$138	32.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$10	0.9¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$380	19.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	$50	5.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$245	5.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$599	22.9¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	$37	2.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$165	8.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$67	3.3¢	Lost
Busan IPark vs. Suwon Bluewings: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	$1	1.3¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$682	5.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Chungbuk Cheongju FC 2 - 3 Suwon Bluewings?	No	$46	1.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$29	0.3¢	Lost
Groen vs. Claeys: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5	Under	$0	1.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$786	51.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$643	38.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$286	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	No	$4	1.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$29	1.2¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	$146	24.3¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	$997	74.0¢	Won
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	$100	5.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Yes	$102	8.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Yes	$23	2.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	$86	2.4¢	Lost
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$440	81.5¢	Won
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	No	$388	19.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	$358	11.4¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?	No	$3	16.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	Yes	$49	6.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$5.6k	57.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$27.4k	48.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	$422	16.7¢	Lost
Carbajal vs. Cosano: Match O/U 23.5	Under	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Team Liquid	$5.8k	37.5¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$1.1k	48.2¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$374	17.0¢	Lost
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	$21	2.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	$14	1.4¢	Lost

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Lost
No$4 @ 0.2¢
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$22.0k @ 85.6¢
Ahn vs. Bernales: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Won
Under$3 @ 4.9¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$359 @ 33.0¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$1.0k @ 21.8¢
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Coventry City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Won
Under$46 @ 86.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$5.5k @ 77.7¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$35 @ 1.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$121 @ 7.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$53 @ 2.6¢
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
No$138 @ 32.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$10 @ 0.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$380 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Lost
No$50 @ 5.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$245 @ 5.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$599 @ 22.9¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$165 @ 8.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$67 @ 3.3¢
Busan IPark vs. Suwon Bluewings: O/U 8.5 Total CornersWon
Over$1 @ 1.3¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$682 @ 5.9¢
Exact Score: Chungbuk Cheongju FC 2 - 3 Suwon Bluewings?Won
No$46 @ 1.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$29 @ 0.3¢
Groen vs. Claeys: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Won
Under$0 @ 1.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$786 @ 51.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$643 @ 38.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$286 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 1.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$29 @ 1.2¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Lost
No$146 @ 24.3¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Won
Yes$997 @ 74.0¢
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?Lost
Yes$100 @ 5.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Lost
Yes$102 @ 8.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Lost
Yes$23 @ 2.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$86 @ 2.4¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$440 @ 81.5¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Lost
No$388 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Lost
No$358 @ 11.4¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?Won
No$3 @ 16.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Lost
Yes$49 @ 6.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$5.6k @ 57.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$27.4k @ 48.6¢
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
No$422 @ 16.7¢
Carbajal vs. Cosano: Match O/U 23.5Lost
Under$1 @ 0.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLost
Team Liquid$5.8k @ 37.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$1.1k @ 48.2¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$374 @ 17.0¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
No$21 @ 2.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Lost
Yes$14 @ 1.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$11.0k	11.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$490	4.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$480	16.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$332	13.0¢
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$100	1.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	No	$24	19.4¢

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$11.0k @ 11.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$490 @ 4.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$480 @ 16.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$332 @ 13.0¢
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$100 @ 1.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
No$24 @ 19.4¢