← Smart money
0x6f36…89ca
SharpEdge
+4.3pp
ROI
+36%
Win rate
15% @ 10.7¢
Brier
0.086
Resolved
3085
Avg size
$7
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 24% (37/153) | +47% | 153 |
| Politics | 24% (30/123) | +32% | 123 |
| Sports | 22% (4/18) | +6% | 18 |
| Geopolitics | 33% (2/6) | +23% | 6 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
- Other153 bets
- Hit rate
- 24% (37/153)
- ROI
- +47%
- Politics123 bets
- Hit rate
- 24% (30/123)
- ROI
- +32%
- Sports18 bets
- Hit rate
- 22% (4/18)
- ROI
- +6%
- Geopolitics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (2/6)
- ROI
- +23%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
24% hit · 73/302- No$127 @ 17.5¢
- No$4 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
- Yes$16 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$26 @ 1.3¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
- No$105 @ 20.4¢
- Yes$219 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$125 @ 16.7¢
- No$635 @ 73.2¢
- Yes$2 @ 3.9¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$21 @ 0.4¢
- No$13 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$16 @ 4.1¢
- Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$11 @ 8.9¢
- No$154 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 1.7¢
- Yes$6 @ 7.3¢
- Yes$31 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$16 @ 31.0¢
- No$416 @ 25.9¢
- Yes$7 @ 5.2¢
- No$7 @ 64.1¢
- Yes$17 @ 22.9¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$13 @ 0.9¢
- Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?LostNo$1 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$99 @ 26.1¢
- Yes$10 @ 3.3¢
- Yes$3 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$4 @ 3.5¢
- No$60 @ 49.3¢
- Yes$306 @ 26.2¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
- No$1 @ 1.4¢
- Yes$136 @ 9.1¢
- Yes$10 @ 30.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$19 @ 32.0¢
- Yes$417 @ 19.8¢
- Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$41 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$14 @ 4.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | — | No | $148 | 16.5¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $50 | 7.6¢ |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? | — | Yes | $26 | 15.0¢ |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $24 | 6.8¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | — | No | $20 | 45.4¢ |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $12 | 0.4¢ |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Politics | No | $11 | 3.8¢ |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $10 | 5.5¢ |
| Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | — | No | $4 | 0.8¢ |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | — | Yes | $4 | 1.9¢ |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $3 | 2.9¢ |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $2 | 0.8¢ |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | — | No | $2 | 0.2¢ |
| Will RMD Gaming Win Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 2 | — | Yes | $0 | 0.6¢ |
- No$148 @ 16.5¢
- No$50 @ 7.6¢
- Yes$26 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 6.8¢
- No$20 @ 45.4¢
- Yes$12 @ 0.4¢
- No$11 @ 3.8¢
- Yes$10 @ 5.5¢
- No$4 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$4 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
- No$2 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.6¢