0x6f36…89ca

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6f36ce54f16757df7f4dd693433dfe8932f089ca
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.1pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

13% @ 9.7¢

Brier

0.075

Resolved

2612

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	26% (32/121)	+35%	121
Other	25% (15/61)	+8%	61
Sports	22% (4/18)	+6%	18
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	+38%	4
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics121 bets
Hit rate
26% (32/121)
ROI
+35%
Other61 bets
Hit rate
25% (15/61)
ROI
+8%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
22% (4/18)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+38%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

26% hit · 53/205

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	$105	20.4¢	Lost
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	$219	31.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	$635	73.2¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	$21	0.4¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$16	4.1¢	Lost
Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$9	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$154	77.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$4	1.7¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$6	7.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$31	2.2¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$416	25.9¢	Lost
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$17	22.9¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	Yes	$13	0.9¢	Lost
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	Yes	$10	3.3¢	Lost
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$3	1.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$4	3.5¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?	No	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$19	32.0¢	Won
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$417	19.8¢	Lost
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$41	0.2¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$14	4.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$101	50.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$259	6.6¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$5	40.0¢	Lost
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$164	70.8¢	Won
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Yes	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	2.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in July?	Yes	$7	5.9¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$76	13.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$0	14.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?	Yes	$8	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$9	4.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$144	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$100	75.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	$48	81.7¢	Won
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$11	36.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$53	14.1¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$124	88.9¢	Won

Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Lost
No$105 @ 20.4¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
Yes$219 @ 31.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
No$635 @ 73.2¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?Lost
Yes$21 @ 0.4¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.1¢
Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$154 @ 77.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.7¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 2.2¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
No$416 @ 25.9¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$17 @ 22.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.9¢
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.3¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?Lost
No$1 @ 1.4¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$19 @ 32.0¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$417 @ 19.8¢
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$41 @ 0.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$14 @ 4.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$101 @ 50.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$259 @ 6.6¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Lost
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?Won
Yes$164 @ 70.8¢
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 30.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 2.9¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in July?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$76 @ 13.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$0 @ 14.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.1¢
Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 4.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$144 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 75.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
No$48 @ 81.7¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?Lost
Yes$11 @ 36.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$53 @ 14.1¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$124 @ 88.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$719	71.9¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$665	4.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$211	21.1¢
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	—	Yes	$154	17.5¢
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	—	No	$127	17.5¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$28	6.9¢
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$26	1.3¢
Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$16	2.0¢
Will Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	—	Yes	$10	1.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$8	0.8¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$6	6.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?	Politics	Yes	$6	1.7¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	6.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	3.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?	—	Yes	$2	0.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	3.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	—	Yes	$1	0.3¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.1¢

Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$719 @ 71.9¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$665 @ 4.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$211 @ 21.1¢
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?—
Yes$154 @ 17.5¢
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?—
No$127 @ 17.5¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?Politics
Yes$28 @ 6.9¢
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?Politics
Yes$26 @ 1.3¢
Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$16 @ 2.0¢
Will Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?—
Yes$10 @ 1.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?Politics
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Politics
Yes$6 @ 1.7¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 3.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?—
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?—
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢