0x6f26…93bc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6f2635a5299351b9e45b2edb34927aff038393bc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

26% @ 21.4¢

Brier

0.129

Resolved

566

Avg size

$10

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (61/219)	+32%	219
Politics	56% (9/16)	+24%	16
Science	45% (5/11)	-6%	11
Tech	50% (4/8)	-1%	8
Sports	50% (3/6)	+0%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other219 bets
Hit rate
28% (61/219)
ROI
+32%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
56% (9/16)
ROI
+24%
Science11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
-6%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-1%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+0%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 82/261

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Good afternoon" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?	No	$0	43.0¢	Won
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$30	30.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?	Yes	$17	45.0¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 22?	No	$4	23.0¢	Lost
Will McCartney Kessler advance to the Final in Ladies' Singles at Wimbledon 2026?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	100k	$11	57.1¢	Won
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11?	No	$10	46.0¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$6	18.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$15	29.8¢	Won
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 9?	Yes	$7	19.0¢	Lost
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by July 31?	No	$67	89.0¢	Won
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$11	9.0¢	Lost
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on August 28?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$41	82.0¢	Won
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?	No	$123	82.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?	Yes	$6	14.0¢	Lost
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?	No	$57	56.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$2	6.7¢	Lost
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?	Yes	$64	1.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	$5	46.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$56	78.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$40	30.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$3	64.0¢	Won
Will Rashida Tlaib be the MI-12 Democratic nominee?	No	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 15?	Yes	$9	31.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "War" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$28	81.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?	Yes	$15	25.0¢	Lost
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?	Yes	$54	1.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda Sanchis	David Jorda Sanchis	$26	86.0¢	Won
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$30	86.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	No	$134	89.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?	Yes	$11	10.7¢	Lost
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	Yes	$21	21.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?	Yes	$26	33.0¢	Won
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado	Juan Carlos Prado	$35	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$31	31.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?	Yes	$2	32.0¢	Lost
Will Jack Bergman be the MI-01 Republican nominee?	No	$13	11.1¢	Lost
Will Angela Murray be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 7)?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30?	No	$41	79.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 18?	Yes	$14	28.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31?	Yes	$15	29.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$53	10.5¢	Lost
Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on August 26?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost

Will Trump say "Good afternoon" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?Won
No$0 @ 43.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 30.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?Won
Yes$17 @ 45.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 22?Lost
No$4 @ 23.0¢
Will McCartney Kessler advance to the Final in Ladies' Singles at Wimbledon 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?Won
100k$11 @ 57.1¢
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11?Won
No$10 @ 46.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 18.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 29.8¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$1 @ 1.2¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 9?Lost
Yes$7 @ 19.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by July 31?Won
No$67 @ 89.0¢
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 9.0¢
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on August 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$41 @ 82.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?Won
No$123 @ 82.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?Lost
Yes$6 @ 14.0¢
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?Lost
No$57 @ 56.0¢
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Lost
No$2 @ 6.7¢
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?Lost
Yes$64 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$56 @ 78.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$40 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
No$3 @ 64.0¢
Will Rashida Tlaib be the MI-12 Democratic nominee?Lost
No$4 @ 7.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 15?Lost
Yes$9 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "War" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
No$28 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?Lost
Yes$15 @ 25.0¢
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?Lost
Yes$54 @ 1.7¢
Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda SanchisWon
David Jorda Sanchis$26 @ 86.0¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$30 @ 86.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?Won
No$134 @ 89.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6?Won
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 10.7¢
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Lost
Yes$21 @ 21.0¢
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?Won
Yes$26 @ 33.0¢
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos PradoWon
Juan Carlos Prado$35 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$31 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?Lost
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
Will Jack Bergman be the MI-01 Republican nominee?Lost
No$13 @ 11.1¢
Will Angela Murray be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 7)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30?Lost
No$41 @ 79.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 18?Lost
Yes$14 @ 28.0¢
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$53 @ 10.5¢
Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on August 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $62.5B by September 30?	Other	No	$63	90.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by September 30?	Other	No	$43	86.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$28	35.0¢
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	No	$26	88.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by September 30?	Other	No	$20	92.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $72.5B by September 30?	Other	No	$18	88.0¢
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	72.0¢
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1	21.0¢

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $62.5B by September 30?Other
No$63 @ 90.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by September 30?Other
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?Other
Yes$28 @ 35.0¢
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by September 30?Other
No$20 @ 92.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $72.5B by September 30?Other
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 72.0¢
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?Culture
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢