0x6f26…93bc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6f2635a5299351b9e45b2edb34927aff038393bc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

33% @ 26.7¢

Brier

0.163

Resolved

800

Avg size

$10

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (98/311)	+21%	311
Politics	45% (17/38)	-1%	38
Science	50% (10/20)	+36%	20
Tech	38% (5/13)	-4%	13
Sports	31% (4/13)	+6%	13
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+11%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+186%	1

Other311 bets
Hit rate
32% (98/311)
ROI
+21%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
45% (17/38)
ROI
-1%
Science20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
+36%
Tech13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
-4%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+11%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+186%

Track record

34% hit · 136/398

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in September 2026?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Good afternoon" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?	No	$0	43.0¢	Won
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$30	30.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?	Yes	$17	45.0¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 22?	No	$4	23.0¢	Lost
Will McCartney Kessler advance to the Final in Ladies' Singles at Wimbledon 2026?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?	No	$21	60.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	100k	$11	57.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Movie Star" during White House Correspondents Dinner?	No	$51	86.0¢	Won
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11?	No	$10	46.0¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$6	18.0¢	Lost
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert	Ignacio Buse	$26	86.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$15	29.8¢	Won
Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?	No	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 4?	No	$8	62.0¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 9?	Yes	$7	19.0¢	Lost
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	$5	35.0¢	Won
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by July 31?	No	$67	89.0¢	Won
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$11	9.0¢	Lost
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on August 28?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$41	82.0¢	Won
LoL: AG.AL vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A	AG.AL	$38	75.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in September 2026?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?	No	$123	82.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?	Yes	$6	14.0¢	Lost
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?	No	$57	56.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$2	6.7¢	Lost
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?	Yes	$64	1.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	$5	46.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$56	78.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$40	30.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$3	64.0¢	Won
Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$9	6.0¢	Lost
Will Byron Buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	No	$19	64.0¢	Won
Will Rashida Tlaib be the MI-12 Democratic nominee?	No	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "King" this week?	No	$7	24.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 15?	Yes	$9	31.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "War" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	$28	81.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?	No	$29	58.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?	Yes	$15	25.0¢	Lost
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?	Yes	$54	1.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda Sanchis	David Jorda Sanchis	$26	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?	Yes	$7	32.0¢	Won
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$30	86.0¢	Won

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in September 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump say "Good afternoon" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?Won
No$0 @ 43.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 30.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?Won
Yes$17 @ 45.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 22?Lost
No$4 @ 23.0¢
Will McCartney Kessler advance to the Final in Ladies' Singles at Wimbledon 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?Lost
No$21 @ 60.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?Won
100k$11 @ 57.1¢
Will Trump say "Movie Star" during White House Correspondents Dinner?Won
No$51 @ 86.0¢
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11?Won
No$10 @ 46.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 18.0¢
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo HumbertWon
Ignacio Buse$26 @ 86.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 29.8¢
Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 28.0¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$1 @ 1.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 4?Lost
No$8 @ 62.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 9?Lost
Yes$7 @ 19.0¢
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?Won
Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by July 31?Won
No$67 @ 89.0¢
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 9.0¢
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on August 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$41 @ 82.0¢
LoL: AG.AL vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group AWon
AG.AL$38 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in September 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?Won
No$123 @ 82.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?Lost
Yes$6 @ 14.0¢
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?Lost
No$57 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20?Lost
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Lost
No$2 @ 6.7¢
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?Lost
Yes$64 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$56 @ 78.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$40 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
No$3 @ 64.0¢
Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
Will Byron Buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?Won
No$19 @ 64.0¢
Will Rashida Tlaib be the MI-12 Democratic nominee?Lost
No$4 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump say "King" this week?Lost
No$7 @ 24.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 15?Lost
Yes$9 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "War" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Won
No$28 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?Won
No$29 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?Lost
Yes$15 @ 25.0¢
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?Lost
Yes$54 @ 1.7¢
Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda SanchisWon
David Jorda Sanchis$26 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 32.0¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$30 @ 86.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$28	35.0¢
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	No	$26	88.0¢
Will Dell say "Fiscal" 20+ times during earnings call?	—	Yes	$19	90.0¢
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	78.0¢
Will North Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	—	No	$16	78.0¢
Will Dell say "Texas" during earnings call?	—	Yes	$16	77.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	72.0¢
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1	21.0¢
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on September 20?	—	Yes	$1	2.5¢
Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on August 28?	—	Yes	$1	86.0¢
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 20?	—	No	$0	4.0¢
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on August 28?	—	Yes	$0	4.0¢
Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on August 31?	—	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on August 31?	—	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on September 22?	—	Yes	$0	1.1¢
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on September 22?	—	Yes	$0	1.1¢
Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on September 22?	—	Yes	$0	1.1¢
Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on August 31?	—	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on August 31?	—	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Louisville, KY face tornado risk on August 31?	—	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on August 31?	—	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on August 27?	—	Yes	$0	2.2¢

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?Other
Yes$28 @ 35.0¢
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Dell say "Fiscal" 20+ times during earnings call?—
Yes$19 @ 90.0¢
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will North Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?—
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Dell say "Texas" during earnings call?—
Yes$16 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 72.0¢
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?Culture
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on September 20?—
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on August 28?—
Yes$1 @ 86.0¢
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 20?—
No$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on August 28?—
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on August 31?—
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on August 31?—
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on September 22?—
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on September 22?—
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on September 22?—
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on August 31?—
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on August 31?—
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Louisville, KY face tornado risk on August 31?—
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on August 31?—
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on August 27?—
Yes$0 @ 2.2¢