0x6ead…14f8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6ead18ed0a6dd44425e26db30db9eb5a28a914f8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.8pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

67% @ 59.1¢

Brier

0.205

Resolved

290

Avg size

$55

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (33/56)	-7%	56
Politics	69% (36/52)	+17%	52
Geopolitics	89% (17/19)	+43%	19
Sports	33% (5/15)	-16%	15

Other56 bets
Hit rate
59% (33/56)
ROI
-7%
Politics52 bets
Hit rate
69% (36/52)
ROI
+17%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
89% (17/19)
ROI
+43%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
33% (5/15)
ROI
-16%

Track record

64% hit · 91/142

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$57	60.3¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$132	72.3¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$78	60.0¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$50	50.8¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	$32	54.0¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$50	71.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?	No	$100	60.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$40	25.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$200	69.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$233	43.3¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$825	75.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$80	67.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$61	64.1¢	Won
Magic vs. Timberwolves	Magic	$19	88.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$100	52.9¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$150	46.1¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$30	51.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	$17	84.0¢	Won
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 30, 2026?	No	$9	28.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$136	82.6¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$71	45.8¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$20	64.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$15	67.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	$56	70.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$30	29.0¢	Lost
Barcelona vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv	Hapoel Tel Aviv	$15	43.0¢	Won
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$79	66.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$60	64.7¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	$803	84.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$100	63.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$30	83.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$2	3.1¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	Yes	$172	57.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$100	60.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$148	53.4¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$100	43.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$50	65.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$532	74.8¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$10	34.0¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	$199	65.7¢	Won
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?	No	$20	58.5¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$149	62.8¢	Won
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	No	$20	68.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$66	66.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$130	39.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?	No	$35	50.0¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?	No	$55	79.3¢	Won
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?	No	$88	57.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$350	64.5¢	Lost

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$57 @ 60.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$132 @ 72.3¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$78 @ 60.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$50 @ 50.8¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Won
No$32 @ 54.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$50 @ 71.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 60.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 25.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 69.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$233 @ 43.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$825 @ 75.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$80 @ 67.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$61 @ 64.1¢
Magic vs. TimberwolvesWon
Magic$19 @ 88.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 52.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 46.1¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Won
Yes$30 @ 51.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AprilWon
Nothing$17 @ 84.0¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 30, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 28.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$136 @ 82.6¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$71 @ 45.8¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$20 @ 64.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 67.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Won
No$56 @ 70.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 29.0¢
Barcelona vs. Hapoel Tel AvivWon
Hapoel Tel Aviv$15 @ 43.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
No$79 @ 66.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$60 @ 64.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
No$803 @ 84.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 63.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$30 @ 83.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.1¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Won
Yes$172 @ 57.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$100 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$148 @ 53.4¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$100 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 65.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$532 @ 74.8¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Won
No$199 @ 65.7¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 58.5¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$149 @ 62.8¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 68.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$66 @ 66.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$130 @ 39.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 50.0¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
No$55 @ 79.3¢
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 57.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$350 @ 64.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$342	69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$214	66.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$190	80.5¢
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$167	64.1¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$120	60.0¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Politics	No	$105	66.8¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$100	39.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Politics	No	$100	67.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$100	60.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$100	56.0¢
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Politics	No	$100	55.3¢
Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	Yes	$90	28.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Politics	No	$86	54.0¢
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	Yes	$78	32.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$67	67.0¢
Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	Yes	$58	51.9¢
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Politics	Yes	$51	77.0¢
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$47	72.0¢
Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	Yes	$34	52.0¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Politics	Yes	$34	26.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$24	43.8¢

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$342 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$214 @ 66.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$190 @ 80.5¢
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$167 @ 64.1¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Politics
No$105 @ 66.8¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$100 @ 39.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
No$100 @ 67.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 60.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$100 @ 56.0¢
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?Politics
No$100 @ 55.3¢
Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?Politics
Yes$90 @ 28.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Politics
No$86 @ 54.0¢
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?Politics
Yes$78 @ 32.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$67 @ 67.0¢
Will Together be in the next Israeli government?Politics
Yes$58 @ 51.9¢
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Politics
Yes$51 @ 77.0¢
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$47 @ 72.0¢
Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?Politics
Yes$34 @ 52.0¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Politics
Yes$34 @ 26.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$24 @ 43.8¢