0x6dce…4490

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6dceb84cb3b8f003c8c4db52c5554303070f4490
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.2pp

ROI

+47%

Win rate

18% @ 16.0¢

Brier

0.120

Resolved

7256

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	22% (158/721)	-12%	721
Politics	37% (22/59)	+158%	59
Sports	36% (16/45)	-40%	45
Geopolitics	33% (2/6)	-8%	6
Tech	25% (1/4)	-99%	4
Science	67% (2/3)	+29%	3
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other721 bets
Hit rate
22% (158/721)
ROI
-12%
Politics59 bets
Hit rate
37% (22/59)
ROI
+158%
Sports45 bets
Hit rate
36% (16/45)
ROI
-40%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-8%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-99%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+29%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

24% hit · 201/840

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?	No	$0	93.5¢	Won
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$4	3.4¢	Lost
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	$13	10.0¢	Lost
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$60	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 5?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$180	89.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 5?	Yes	$16	4.0¢	Lost
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	$184	46.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 4?	Yes	$6	2.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$75	34.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 5?	Yes	$15	6.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 2?	Yes	$7	10.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?	No	$32	6.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?	Yes	$18	53.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?	Yes	$44	11.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 3?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 3?	Yes	$17	2.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 21?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 6?	Yes	$10	3.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?	Yes	$5	2.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 4?	No	$130	69.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 4?	Yes	$20	5.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?	Yes	$440	48.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	65.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C or below on April 22?	Yes	$101	8.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 2?	Yes	$8	4.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 4?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 5?	Yes	$3	2.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?	Yes	$22	5.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19?	Yes	$0	36.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	4.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 3?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 7?	Yes	$5	2.3¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$10	5.2¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 3?	Yes	$9	0.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	No	$21	30.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$275	24.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5?	Yes	$22	9.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	$14	5.4¢	Won
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	$69	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?	No	$171	47.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 3?	Yes	$15	2.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4?	Yes	$6	3.0¢	Lost

Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?Won
No$0 @ 93.5¢
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.4¢
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?Lost
Yes$13 @ 10.0¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 5?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?Won
Yes$180 @ 89.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 5?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.0¢
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Won
Yes$184 @ 46.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$75 @ 34.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 5?Lost
Yes$15 @ 6.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 2?Lost
Yes$7 @ 10.8¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?Lost
No$32 @ 6.2¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?Won
Yes$18 @ 53.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?Lost
Yes$44 @ 11.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4?Won
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 3?Lost
Yes$17 @ 2.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 6?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 4?Won
No$130 @ 69.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in April 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?Won
Yes$440 @ 48.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 65.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C or below on April 22?Lost
Yes$101 @ 8.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 2?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 5?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?Won
Yes$22 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19?Won
Yes$0 @ 36.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?Won
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 3?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 7?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.3¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.2¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 3?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Lost
No$21 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$275 @ 24.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 5?Won
Yes$22 @ 9.9¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 5.4¢
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
Yes$69 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?Won
No$171 @ 47.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 3?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Sports	No	$8.0k	74.7¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.2k	86.4¢
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	87.5¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	—	No	$1.5k	28.6¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.2k	64.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	72.5¢
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?	Politics	No	$938	74.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$850	24.2¢
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$791	31.4¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	—	Colombia	$530	57.8¢
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	Sports	Under	$516	65.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$503	14.4¢
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$467	82.1¢
Will Ipswich Town be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Sports	No	$440	55.0¢
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Sports	No	$431	44.4¢
Trump kiss by May 31?	—	No	$423	16.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$380	25.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Politics	Yes	$372	12.3¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Sports	Yes	$370	37.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$363	37.7¢
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	—	France	$353	58.8¢
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Sports	Over	$347	69.4¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?	—	Yes	$285	20.1¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	—	Under	$275	67.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners	—	Over	$265	53.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$252	59.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Sports	Yes	$230	46.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?	—	No	$223	44.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Politics	No	$221	3.3¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	—	Over	$216	36.0¢

Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Sports
No$8.0k @ 74.7¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$5.2k @ 86.4¢
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 87.5¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?—
No$1.5k @ 28.6¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$1.2k @ 64.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 72.5¢
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?Politics
No$938 @ 74.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics
No$850 @ 24.2¢
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?—
Yes$791 @ 31.4¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance—
Colombia$530 @ 57.8¢
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5Sports
Under$516 @ 65.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?Politics
Yes$503 @ 14.4¢
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$467 @ 82.1¢
Will Ipswich Town be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Sports
No$440 @ 55.0¢
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Sports
No$431 @ 44.4¢
Trump kiss by May 31?—
No$423 @ 16.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$380 @ 25.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Politics
Yes$372 @ 12.3¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Sports
Yes$370 @ 37.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Politics
Yes$363 @ 37.7¢
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance—
France$353 @ 58.8¢
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Sports
Over$347 @ 69.4¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?—
Yes$285 @ 20.1¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5—
Under$275 @ 67.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners—
Over$265 @ 53.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$252 @ 59.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Sports
Yes$230 @ 46.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?—
No$223 @ 44.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics
No$221 @ 3.3¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5—
Over$216 @ 36.0¢