0x6dce…4490

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6dceb84cb3b8f003c8c4db52c5554303070f4490
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+22.6pp

ROI

+195%

Win rate

45% @ 22.3¢

Brier

0.317

Resolved

857

Avg size

$40

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (45/126)	-12%	126
Politics	29% (6/21)	+337%	21
Sports	50% (7/14)	-3%	14
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-66%	2
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other126 bets
Hit rate
36% (45/126)
ROI
-12%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
29% (6/21)
ROI
+337%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-66%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

36% hit · 59/165

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$180	89.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?	Yes	$44	11.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Won
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	$69	2.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 1?	No	$27	27.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?	Yes	$70	56.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 11?	No	$80	67.5¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$7.7k	29.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	$9	1.8¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$230	46.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	Yes	$12	0.3¢	Lost
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$373	6.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?	Yes	$178	54.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?	Yes	$67	80.8¢	Won
Will Trump dance today?	No	$48	1.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?	No	$375	56.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?	Yes	$45	64.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?	No	$40	4.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 27?	Yes	$17	1.3¢	Lost
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$370	37.0¢	Lost
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$414	69.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 7?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	0.5¢	Lost
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	No	$42	30.0¢	Lost
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	Yes	$480	21.4¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$21	18.0¢	Lost
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	Yes	$154	3.9¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 25?	No	$56	69.8¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$101	7.2¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$204	68.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 6?	No	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?	Yes	$115	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 30?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 26?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 23?	No	$27	67.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	$12	0.2¢	Lost
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$3.0k	73.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 23?	No	$11	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?	Yes	$55	3.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 24?	No	$27	85.9¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	No	$54	18.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?	Yes	$277	54.8¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$153	51.0¢	Won

Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?Won
Yes$180 @ 89.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?Lost
Yes$44 @ 11.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?Won
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
Yes$69 @ 2.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 1?Lost
No$27 @ 27.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?Lost
Yes$70 @ 56.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 11?Won
No$80 @ 67.5¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$7.7k @ 29.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 27?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.8¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$230 @ 46.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?Lost
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.3¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$373 @ 6.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?Won
Yes$178 @ 54.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?Won
Yes$67 @ 80.8¢
Will Trump dance today?Lost
No$48 @ 1.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?Won
No$375 @ 56.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?Lost
Yes$45 @ 64.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?Lost
No$40 @ 4.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 27?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.3¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$370 @ 37.0¢
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$414 @ 69.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$41 @ 0.5¢
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Lost
No$42 @ 30.0¢
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Lost
Yes$480 @ 21.4¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$21 @ 18.0¢
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?Lost
Yes$154 @ 3.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 25?Won
No$56 @ 69.8¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$101 @ 7.2¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$204 @ 68.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 6?Lost
No$4 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$115 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 23?Won
No$27 @ 67.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$3.0k @ 73.2¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 23?Won
No$11 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?Lost
Yes$55 @ 3.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 24?Won
No$27 @ 85.9¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$54 @ 18.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?Won
Yes$277 @ 54.8¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$153 @ 51.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$2.9k	95.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$899	19.1¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	—	Yes	$132	30.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$73	52.0¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$41	46.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$38	41.0¢
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$29	21.5¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$20	28.0¢

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
No$2.9k @ 95.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?—
Yes$899 @ 19.1¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?—
Yes$132 @ 30.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$73 @ 52.0¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$41 @ 46.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$38 @ 41.0¢
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$29 @ 21.5¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$20 @ 28.0¢