← Smart money
0x6dce…4490
ProfitableEdge
+24.7pp
ROI
+197%
Win rate
47% @ 22.2¢
Brier
0.325
Resolved
822
Avg size
$41
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 35% (52/147) | -15% | 147 |
| Sports | 32% (9/28) | -41% | 28 |
| Politics | 36% (10/28) | +287% | 28 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (2/4) | +3% | 4 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Science | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other147 bets
- Hit rate
- 35% (52/147)
- ROI
- -15%
- Sports28 bets
- Hit rate
- 32% (9/28)
- ROI
- -41%
- Politics28 bets
- Hit rate
- 36% (10/28)
- ROI
- +287%
- Geopolitics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +3%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Science1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
35% hit · 73/211- Yes$195 @ 39.0¢
- No$544 @ 95.1¢
- Yes$29 @ 21.5¢
- Yes$155 @ 19.4¢
- No$58 @ 48.0¢
- Yes$188 @ 31.3¢
- Yes$96 @ 24.0¢
- England$208 @ 53.3¢
- Yes$54 @ 2.7¢
- No$252 @ 59.0¢
- France$353 @ 58.8¢
- Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$67 @ 6.8¢
- Yes$24 @ 1.2¢
- Yes$177 @ 30.2¢
- Colombia$305 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$456 @ 57.8¢
- Yes$134 @ 67.0¢
- No$480 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$214 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$40 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$105 @ 13.0¢
- Belgium$356 @ 59.3¢
- No$5 @ 2.7¢
- Over$204 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 8.3¢
- Under$141 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$54 @ 67.0¢
- Over$216 @ 36.0¢
- Over$47 @ 52.0¢
- No$211 @ 70.3¢
- Yes$198 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$11 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$114 @ 20.5¢
- Yes$36 @ 12.1¢
- Yes$258 @ 45.8¢
- No$42 @ 64.0¢
- No$2.3k @ 58.0¢
- No$459 @ 51.0¢
- Yes$270 @ 54.0¢
- No$13.1k @ 91.9¢
- No$196 @ 90.0¢
- No$276 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 80.0¢
- No$292 @ 73.1¢
- Yes$180 @ 89.9¢
- Yes$44 @ 11.5¢
- Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$69 @ 2.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | Politics | No | $5.2k | 86.4¢ |
| Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? | Politics | No | $1.4k | 86.2¢ |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? | Politics | No | $643 | 70.7¢ |
| Will Ipswich Town be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? | Sports | No | $440 | 55.0¢ |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? | Politics | No | $436 | 65.2¢ |
| Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? | Sports | No | $228 | 45.7¢ |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $150 | 30.0¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $73 | 52.0¢ |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Science | Yes | $41 | 46.0¢ |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Culture | Yes | $38 | 41.0¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | Politics | No | $36 | 3.6¢ |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Science | Yes | $20 | 28.0¢ |
- No$5.2k @ 86.4¢
- No$1.4k @ 86.2¢
- No$643 @ 70.7¢
- No$440 @ 55.0¢
- No$436 @ 65.2¢
- No$228 @ 45.7¢
- Yes$150 @ 30.0¢
- Yes$73 @ 52.0¢
- Yes$41 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$38 @ 41.0¢
- No$36 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$20 @ 28.0¢