0x6dce…4490

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6dceb84cb3b8f003c8c4db52c5554303070f4490
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+14.9pp

ROI

+132%

Win rate

41% @ 26.2¢

Brier

0.271

Resolved

1270

Avg size

$39

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (44/125)	-21%	125
Politics	29% (6/21)	+338%	21
Sports	54% (7/13)	-1%	13
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-87%	2
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other125 bets
Hit rate
35% (44/125)
ROI
-21%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
29% (6/21)
ROI
+338%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
54% (7/13)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-87%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

36% hit · 58/163

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$180	89.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?	Yes	$44	11.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 21?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?	Yes	$440	48.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C or below on April 22?	Yes	$101	8.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19?	Yes	$0	36.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	4.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	No	$21	30.0¢	Lost
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	$69	2.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 1?	No	$27	27.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?	Yes	$70	56.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 11?	No	$80	67.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$47	47.0¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$7.7k	29.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	$9	1.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 16?	Yes	$10	1.3¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$230	46.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?	Yes	$293	2.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	Yes	$12	0.3¢	Lost
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$252	84.1¢	Won
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$373	6.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 21?	Yes	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?	Yes	$178	54.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?	Yes	$67	80.8¢	Won
Will Trump dance today?	No	$48	1.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?	No	$375	56.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?	Yes	$45	64.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?	No	$40	4.4¢	Lost
Will Seoul have between 65-70mm of precipitation in April?	No	$19	81.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 27?	Yes	$17	1.3¢	Lost
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$370	37.0¢	Lost
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$1.7k	71.8¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 7?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	0.5¢	Lost
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	No	$42	30.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 20?	No	$391	88.9¢	Won
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	Yes	$480	21.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 21?	Yes	$10	0.4¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2.0k	81.2¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$21	18.0¢	Lost
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	Yes	$154	3.9¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 25?	No	$56	69.8¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$166	83.1¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$101	7.2¢	Won

Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?Won
Yes$180 @ 89.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?Lost
Yes$44 @ 11.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?Won
Yes$440 @ 48.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C or below on April 22?Lost
Yes$101 @ 8.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19?Won
Yes$0 @ 36.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?Won
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Lost
No$21 @ 30.0¢
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
Yes$69 @ 2.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 1?Lost
No$27 @ 27.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?Lost
Yes$70 @ 56.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 11?Won
No$80 @ 67.5¢
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?Lost
No$47 @ 47.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$7.7k @ 29.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 27?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 16?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.3¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$230 @ 46.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?Lost
Yes$293 @ 2.7¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.3¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
No$252 @ 84.1¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$373 @ 6.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?Won
Yes$178 @ 54.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?Won
Yes$67 @ 80.8¢
Will Trump dance today?Lost
No$48 @ 1.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?Won
No$375 @ 56.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?Lost
Yes$45 @ 64.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?Lost
No$40 @ 4.4¢
Will Seoul have between 65-70mm of precipitation in April?Won
No$19 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 27?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.3¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$370 @ 37.0¢
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 71.8¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$41 @ 0.5¢
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Lost
No$42 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 20?Won
No$391 @ 88.9¢
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Lost
Yes$480 @ 21.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.4¢
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 81.2¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$21 @ 18.0¢
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?Lost
Yes$154 @ 3.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 25?Won
No$56 @ 69.8¢
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$166 @ 83.1¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$101 @ 7.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$15.0k	92.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	—	No	$780	78.0¢
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Sports	No	$301	90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	No	$276	69.0¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Sports	Yes	$270	54.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?	—	No	$211	70.3¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$132	2.2¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$108	5.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$105	13.0¢
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$84	34.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$73	52.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$67	6.8¢
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$42	64.0¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$41	46.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$40	2.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Politics	Yes	$39	63.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$38	41.0¢
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$29	21.5¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$24	1.2¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$20	28.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 24, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	8.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	8.3¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$4	7.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 21, 2026?	—	Yes	$2	4.7¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$2	1.7¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	0.8¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 3, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	4.7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$15.0k @ 92.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?—
No$780 @ 78.0¢
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Sports
No$301 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
No$276 @ 69.0¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?Sports
Yes$270 @ 54.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?—
No$211 @ 70.3¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$132 @ 2.2¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$108 @ 5.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$105 @ 13.0¢
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?—
Yes$84 @ 34.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$73 @ 52.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$67 @ 6.8¢
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$42 @ 64.0¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$41 @ 46.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$40 @ 2.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?Politics
Yes$39 @ 63.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$38 @ 41.0¢
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$29 @ 21.5¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$24 @ 1.2¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$20 @ 28.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 24, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 8.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 8.3¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026?—
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 21, 2026?—
Yes$2 @ 4.7¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 30, 2026?—
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 3, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢