0x6d79…ae69

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6d7974bd5d6454b515eaccee05827f8ad838ae69
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.0pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

56% @ 45.4¢

Brier

0.115

Resolved

867

Avg size

$64

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	62% (32/52)	+10%	52
Sports	45% (5/11)	+240%	11
Politics	100% (6/6)	+44%	6
Crypto	50% (2/4)	-64%	4
Tech	100% (1/1)	+47%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other52 bets
Hit rate
62% (32/52)
ROI
+10%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
+240%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+44%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-64%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+47%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

61% hit · 46/75

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?	No	$436	85.1¢	Won
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	$264	88.0¢	Won
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?	Yes	$45	89.0¢	Won
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?	No	$93	82.9¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$143	56.1¢	Won
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists?	No	$676	87.9¢	Won
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner	Ding	$1.4k	38.7¢	Lost
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner	Gukesh	$8.4k	71.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$154	77.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$983	73.2¢	Won
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?	No	$416	83.2¢	Lost
USDT depeg in 2025?	No	$500	84.0¢	Won
Texans vs. Patriots	Texans	$156	39.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$780	78.0¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Yes	$436	87.2¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$215	13.4¢	Lost
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$16	12.0¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	$172	86.0¢	Won
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?	Yes	$513	65.5¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	No	$203	71.8¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$420	42.0¢	Won
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?	Yes	$600	30.0¢	Lost
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$6.4k	73.9¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	$144	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$432	11.5¢	Lost
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1.9k	20.3¢	Won
Bills vs. Broncos	Bills	$96	48.0¢	Lost
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$166	88.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$1.2k	68.8¢	Won
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	$32	68.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$448	83.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?	No	$1.3k	67.0¢	Lost
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?	Yes	$188	57.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?	No	$329	89.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	No	$882	32.7¢	Lost
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	$632	17.8¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$215	43.0¢	Won
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$75	18.7¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	$526	57.7¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	$18	37.9¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	$252	21.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?	Yes	$139	6.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$540	45.0¢	Lost
Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?	Yes	$294	84.1¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Yes	$246	14.2¢	Lost
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?	Yes	$390	23.0¢	Won
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	No	$259	86.4¢	Won
Chargers vs. Patriots	Chargers	$108	36.0¢	Lost

Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?Won
No$436 @ 85.1¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Won
No$264 @ 88.0¢
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?Won
Yes$45 @ 89.0¢
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?Won
No$93 @ 82.9¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$143 @ 56.1¢
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists?Won
No$676 @ 87.9¢
World Chess Championship 2024 WinnerLost
Ding$1.4k @ 38.7¢
World Chess Championship 2024 WinnerWon
Gukesh$8.4k @ 71.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$154 @ 77.0¢
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Won
Yes$983 @ 73.2¢
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?Lost
No$416 @ 83.2¢
USDT depeg in 2025?Won
No$500 @ 84.0¢
Texans vs. PatriotsLost
Texans$156 @ 39.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$780 @ 78.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$436 @ 87.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$215 @ 13.4¢
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$16 @ 12.0¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Won
No$172 @ 86.0¢
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?Won
Yes$513 @ 65.5¢
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?Lost
No$203 @ 71.8¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$420 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?Lost
Yes$600 @ 30.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$6.4k @ 73.9¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Won
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$432 @ 11.5¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 20.3¢
Bills vs. BroncosLost
Bills$96 @ 48.0¢
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$166 @ 88.0¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 68.8¢
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 68.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$448 @ 83.6¢
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?Lost
No$1.3k @ 67.0¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?Won
Yes$188 @ 57.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?Won
No$329 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?Lost
No$882 @ 32.7¢
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Lost
No$632 @ 17.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$215 @ 43.0¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Won
Yes$75 @ 18.7¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Won
No$526 @ 57.7¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$18 @ 37.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Lost
Yes$252 @ 21.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$139 @ 6.7¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$540 @ 45.0¢
Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?Won
Yes$294 @ 84.1¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$246 @ 14.2¢
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?Won
Yes$390 @ 23.0¢
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?Won
No$259 @ 86.4¢
Chargers vs. PatriotsLost
Chargers$108 @ 36.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$8.0k	50.6¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	18.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.4k	17.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$966	53.5¢
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$880	22.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$568	71.0¢
Will the Golden State Warriors make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	No	$497	49.7¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$478	10.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$469	88.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$464	58.0¢
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	No	$406	73.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	Yes	$361	78.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	No	$305	20.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$270	27.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$264	44.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$236	53.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$222	63.0¢
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?	Economy	No	$171	87.8¢
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$159	3.4¢
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	Yes	$121	56.1¢
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	Yes	$105	35.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Sports	No	$81	74.0¢
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Sports	Yes	$70	14.0¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$66	27.2¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$63	24.1¢
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Sports	Yes	$46	13.0¢
Will the Boston Celtics make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	Yes	$19	79.0¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$13	74.7¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$11	1.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2	5.4¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$8.0k @ 50.6¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 18.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.4k @ 17.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$966 @ 53.5¢
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$880 @ 22.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$568 @ 71.0¢
Will the Golden State Warriors make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
No$497 @ 49.7¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$478 @ 10.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$469 @ 88.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$464 @ 58.0¢
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
No$406 @ 73.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
Yes$361 @ 78.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
No$305 @ 20.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$270 @ 27.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$264 @ 44.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$236 @ 53.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$222 @ 63.0¢
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?Economy
No$171 @ 87.8¢
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$159 @ 3.4¢
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
Yes$121 @ 56.1¢
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
Yes$105 @ 35.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?Sports
No$81 @ 74.0¢
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Sports
Yes$70 @ 14.0¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Crypto
Yes$66 @ 27.2¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$63 @ 24.1¢
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Sports
Yes$46 @ 13.0¢
Will the Boston Celtics make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
Yes$19 @ 79.0¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
Yes$13 @ 74.7¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$11 @ 1.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2 @ 5.4¢