0x6d3f…a942

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6d3fa0200fec1dbcf4dd7e4408aa1e53779ca942
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.8pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

70% @ 60.2¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

1103

Avg size

$515

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (181/267)	+7%	267
Politics	63% (5/8)	-6%	8
Sports	80% (4/5)	-8%	5

Other267 bets
Hit rate
68% (181/267)
ROI
+7%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
-6%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-8%

Track record

68% hit · 190/280

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	$2.1k	63.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?	No	$3.3k	85.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	Yes	$202	24.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?	Yes	$8	19.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?	Yes	$439	13.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	Yes	$10	38.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$218	79.0¢	Won
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	No	$1.0k	80.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?	No	$1.2k	80.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?	No	$1.2k	85.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.6¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	No	$150	70.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?	No	$1.6k	89.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?	No	$5.0k	83.4¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	$1.4k	89.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?	Yes	$40	2.5¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	No	$703	60.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?	No	$2.3k	81.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	No	$1.2k	88.9¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?	No	$2.2k	67.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?	No	$1.7k	77.1¢	Won
Funding lapse without government shutdown?	No	$1.2k	86.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $180 November 3-9?	No	$1000	81.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?	No	$1.5k	89.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?	Yes	$671	28.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	$2.2k	84.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?	No	$50	74.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?	Yes	$148	6.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?	No	$500	24.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	52.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	No	$5.7k	74.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?	No	$12.1k	81.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	No	$1.5k	78.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?	No	$6.3k	87.7¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?	No	$1.0k	63.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	No	$4.3k	85.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	No	$3.0k	86.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	46.9¢	Won
Solana above $130 on March 21?	No	$684	70.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?	No	$1.3k	86.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	No	$203	52.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?	No	$1.4k	80.9¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?	No	$1.3k	82.3¢	Won
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.2k	58.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?	No	$1.7k	79.9¢	Won
Yoon arrested by January 31?	No	$12	48.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?	Yes	$3.2k	15.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?	No	$6.3k	79.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?	Yes	$285	87.8¢	Won

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Won
No$2.1k @ 63.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?Won
No$3.3k @ 85.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?Won
Yes$202 @ 24.0¢
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?Lost
Yes$8 @ 19.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$439 @ 13.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 38.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$218 @ 79.0¢
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?Won
No$1.0k @ 80.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?Won
No$1.2k @ 80.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 85.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Won
No$150 @ 70.0¢
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?Won
No$1.6k @ 89.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?Won
No$5.0k @ 83.4¢
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 89.0¢
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?Lost
Yes$40 @ 2.5¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
No$703 @ 60.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?Won
No$2.3k @ 81.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Won
No$2.2k @ 67.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Won
No$1.7k @ 77.1¢
Funding lapse without government shutdown? Won
No$1.2k @ 86.0¢
Will Solana reach $180 November 3-9?Won
No$1000 @ 81.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 89.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$671 @ 28.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 84.3¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?Won
No$50 @ 74.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$148 @ 6.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 24.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 52.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?Lost
No$5.7k @ 74.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Won
No$12.1k @ 81.3¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?Won
No$1.5k @ 78.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?Won
No$6.3k @ 87.7¢
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?Won
No$1.0k @ 63.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?Won
No$4.3k @ 85.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Won
No$3.0k @ 86.1¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 46.9¢
Solana above $130 on March 21?Won
No$684 @ 70.0¢
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?Won
No$1.3k @ 86.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Won
No$203 @ 52.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?Won
No$1.4k @ 80.9¢
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?Won
No$1.3k @ 82.3¢
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 58.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 79.9¢
Yoon arrested by January 31?Lost
No$12 @ 48.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 15.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?Lost
No$6.3k @ 79.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?Won
Yes$285 @ 87.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.3k	64.5¢

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?Politics
No$3.3k @ 64.5¢