0x6c43…fb9b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6c439f2c136efab50b08cd8a52de3dfb070dfb9b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.8pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

46% @ 41.3¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

1704

Avg size

$109

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (74/152)	+17%	152
Sports	40% (41/103)	+10%	103
Politics	25% (1/4)	-64%	4

Other152 bets
Hit rate
49% (74/152)
ROI
+17%
Sports103 bets
Hit rate
40% (41/103)
ROI
+10%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-64%

Track record

45% hit · 116/259

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	$2.3k	77.0¢	Won
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.5k	69.0¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$130	13.0¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Heat	Heat	$1.5k	76.0¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	$108	54.0¢	Lost
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5	Under	$41	3.9¢	Won
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?	Yes	$89	12.0¢	Lost
Hawks vs. Mavericks	Hawks	$4.2k	85.0¢	Won
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$7	22.0¢	Lost
Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty	Seattle Storm	$421	30.0¢	Lost
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$111	55.0¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$3.7k	47.1¢	Won
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04?	Yes	$36	36.0¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.5k	50.7¢	Won
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	No	$720	36.0¢	Lost
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	No	$4	36.0¢	Lost
Pistons vs. Timberwolves	Pistons	$2.9k	89.0¢	Won
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-22?	No	$410	53.0¢	Won
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	No	$233	45.6¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?	No	$1.7k	52.5¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$80	2.7¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	No	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$52	68.3¢	Won
Bucks vs. Suns	Bucks	$954	53.0¢	Won
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$3.4k	85.6¢	Won
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners	Over	$4	35.0¢	Won
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners	Under	$100	50.0¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?	No	$300	30.0¢	Lost
76ers vs. Jazz	Jazz	$1.7k	45.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2.3k	71.3¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$150	10.0¢	Lost
Pelicans vs. Rockets	Rockets	$246	41.0¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$34	39.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	$1.5k	50.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$230	23.0¢	Lost
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$860	37.9¢	Lost
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$3.3k	64.8¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2.1k	58.1¢	Won
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$34	53.0¢	Won
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-09-18?	Yes	$105	2.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage	Team Spirit	$60	60.0¢	Won
Jets vs. Canucks	Canucks	$42	42.0¢	Lost
Suns vs. Magic	Suns	$2.1k	46.0¢	Lost
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals	No	$1.5k	82.0¢	Won
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	Team Falcons	$1.7k	62.6¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost

Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsWon
No$2.3k @ 77.0¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1.5k @ 69.0¢
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$130 @ 13.0¢
Lakers vs. HeatLost
Heat$1.5k @ 76.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Lost
No$108 @ 54.0¢
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5Won
Under$41 @ 3.9¢
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?Lost
Yes$89 @ 12.0¢
Hawks vs. MavericksWon
Hawks$4.2k @ 85.0¢
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$7 @ 22.0¢
Seattle Storm vs. New York LibertyLost
Seattle Storm$421 @ 30.0¢
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$111 @ 55.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$3.7k @ 47.1¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04?Won
Yes$36 @ 36.0¢
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.5k @ 50.7¢
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$720 @ 36.0¢
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsLost
No$4 @ 36.0¢
Pistons vs. TimberwolvesWon
Pistons$2.9k @ 89.0¢
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-22?Won
No$410 @ 53.0¢
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Lost
No$233 @ 45.6¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?Lost
No$1.7k @ 52.5¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$80 @ 2.7¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?Lost
No$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$52 @ 68.3¢
Bucks vs. SunsWon
Bucks$954 @ 53.0¢
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$3.4k @ 85.6¢
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 CornersWon
Over$4 @ 35.0¢
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 CornersLost
Under$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?Lost
No$300 @ 30.0¢
76ers vs. JazzLost
Jazz$1.7k @ 45.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2.3k @ 71.3¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$150 @ 10.0¢
Pelicans vs. RocketsWon
Rockets$246 @ 41.0¢
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$34 @ 39.0¢
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality - Map 1 WinnerLost
Vitality$1.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$230 @ 23.0¢
Spread: England (-2.5)Lost
England$5 @ 4.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$860 @ 37.9¢
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$3.3k @ 64.8¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2.1k @ 58.1¢
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$34 @ 53.0¢
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-09-18?Lost
Yes$105 @ 2.1¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageWon
Team Spirit$60 @ 60.0¢
Jets vs. CanucksLost
Canucks$42 @ 42.0¢
Suns vs. MagicLost
Suns$2.1k @ 46.0¢
Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsWon
No$1.5k @ 82.0¢
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsLost
Team Falcons$1.7k @ 62.6¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	—	Under	$3.5k	98.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$2.6k	43.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$1.9k	36.1¢
Will AC Milan qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Sports	Yes	$1.1k	56.7¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$1.0k	50.5¢
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Sports	No	$737	89.0¢
Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	Sports	No	$737	23.0¢
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC South?	Sports	No	$715	73.0¢
Will Caitlin Clark win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	Sports	No	$712	90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$680	34.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$667	50.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$650	32.5¢
Spread: Packers (-5.5)	Sports	Packers	$587	50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$520	10.4¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award?	Sports	No	$516	62.5¢
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Sports	No	$507	74.6¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Sports	No	$485	18.5¢
Will the Houston Astros clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Sports	Yes	$484	51.0¢
Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$447	89.4¢
Will SC Paderborn qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Sports	No	$388	97.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Sports	No	$373	35.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$360	12.0¢
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Sports	No	$314	35.2¢
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	Sports	No	$284	23.6¢
Will Gabby Williams win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award?	Sports	No	$187	52.5¢
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Sports	No	$181	91.6¢
Will Amber Glenn win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	Culture	No	$176	80.0¢
Will SV Elversberg qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Sports	No	$169	95.8¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$166	16.6¢
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$166	31.3¢

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?—
Under$3.5k @ 98.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$2.6k @ 43.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$1.9k @ 36.1¢
Will AC Milan qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?Sports
Yes$1.1k @ 56.7¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$1.0k @ 50.5¢
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Sports
No$737 @ 89.0¢
Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?Sports
No$737 @ 23.0¢
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC South?Sports
No$715 @ 73.0¢
Will Caitlin Clark win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?Sports
No$712 @ 90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$680 @ 34.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$667 @ 50.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$650 @ 32.5¢
Spread: Packers (-5.5)Sports
Packers$587 @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$520 @ 10.4¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award?Sports
No$516 @ 62.5¢
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?Sports
No$507 @ 74.6¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Sports
No$485 @ 18.5¢
Will the Houston Astros clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports
Yes$484 @ 51.0¢
Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$447 @ 89.4¢
Will SC Paderborn qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?Sports
No$388 @ 97.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Sports
No$373 @ 35.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$360 @ 12.0¢
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?Sports
No$314 @ 35.2¢
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?Sports
No$284 @ 23.6¢
Will Gabby Williams win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award?Sports
No$187 @ 52.5¢
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Sports
No$181 @ 91.6¢
Will Amber Glenn win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?Culture
No$176 @ 80.0¢
Will SV Elversberg qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?Sports
No$169 @ 95.8¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$166 @ 16.6¢
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$166 @ 31.3¢