0x6c16…bac6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6c16866c6f5d56d02ebeae3db0fcca81ad76bac6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.1pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

64% @ 55.8¢

Brier

0.176

Resolved

219

Avg size

$28

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (50/99)	+22%	99
Politics	64% (14/22)	+2%	22
Tech	78% (7/9)	+13%	9
Economy	50% (1/2)	-23%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-28%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+16%	1

Other99 bets
Hit rate
51% (50/99)
ROI
+22%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
64% (14/22)
ROI
+2%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+13%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-23%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-28%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+16%

Track record

55% hit · 74/135

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02?	Yes	$1	62.0¢	Lost
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	$7	18.0¢	Lost
Solana above $130 on April 4?	Yes	$1	48.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester United vs. Wolves end in a draw?	Yes	$1	32.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$225	55.7¢	Won
Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	$14	69.0¢	Won
BYU vs. Alabama	BYU	$1	33.0¢	Lost
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	Yes	$12	58.0¢	Won
Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	$15	72.7¢	Lost
Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?	No	$48	60.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$73	58.9¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$62	53.6¢	Lost
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02?	Yes	$2	71.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$42	17.0¢	Lost
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5)	Misa Esports	$338	54.0¢	Lost
Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Lost
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13?	Yes	$1	36.0¢	Won
Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	No	$9	47.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	$48	74.0¢	Lost
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	Yes	$324	18.5¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$37	66.7¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	$10	49.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Hawks	Hawks	$1	44.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03?	Yes	$1	57.0¢	Lost
Will Arthur Lira win the most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	No	$25	71.0¢	Lost
Will Zequinha Marinho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	No	$203	78.0¢	Won
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$44	52.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$151	58.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$304	76.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?	Yes	$2	49.0¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Lost
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	No	$26	80.0¢	Won
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-05-08?	Yes	$1	39.0¢	Lost
Will Everton win on 2025-03-15?	Yes	$1	46.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$56	18.0¢	Won
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$58	46.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$169	52.0¢	Won
Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	No	$4	51.0¢	Lost
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16?	Yes	$1	66.0¢	Won
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15?	Yes	$1	51.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?	Yes	$25	65.7¢	Won
Will Udinese vs. Atalanta end in a draw?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Will Group A be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?	No	$11	48.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs	ex-RUBY	$54	77.0¢	Won
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech	Arkansas	$1	32.0¢	Lost
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-25?	Yes	$1	53.0¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	64.0¢	Won
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	$86	86.0¢	Won

Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02?Lost
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-09-19?Lost
Yes$7 @ 18.0¢
Solana above $130 on April 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 48.0¢
Will Manchester United vs. Wolves end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$225 @ 55.7¢
Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?Won
No$14 @ 69.0¢
BYU vs. AlabamaLost
BYU$1 @ 33.0¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Won
Yes$12 @ 58.0¢
Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?Lost
No$15 @ 72.7¢
Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?Won
No$48 @ 60.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$73 @ 58.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$62 @ 53.6¢
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02?Won
Yes$2 @ 71.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 17.0¢
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5)Lost
Misa Esports$338 @ 54.0¢
Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13?Won
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?Won
No$9 @ 47.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Lost
No$48 @ 74.0¢
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?Lost
Yes$324 @ 18.5¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$37 @ 66.7¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05?Lost
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Warriors vs. HawksWon
Hawks$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03?Lost
Yes$1 @ 57.0¢
Will Arthur Lira win the most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?Lost
No$25 @ 71.0¢
Will Zequinha Marinho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?Won
No$203 @ 78.0¢
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 52.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$151 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$304 @ 76.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 80.0¢
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-05-08?Lost
Yes$1 @ 39.0¢
Will Everton win on 2025-03-15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 46.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$56 @ 18.0¢
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04?Won
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$58 @ 46.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$169 @ 52.0¢
Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?Lost
No$4 @ 51.0¢
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16?Won
Yes$1 @ 66.0¢
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15?Won
Yes$1 @ 51.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 65.7¢
Will Udinese vs. Atalanta end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will Group A be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?Lost
No$11 @ 48.0¢
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 PlayoffsWon
ex-RUBY$54 @ 77.0¢
Arkansas vs. Texas TechLost
Arkansas$1 @ 32.0¢
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-25?Won
Yes$1 @ 53.0¢
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 64.0¢
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?Won
Yes$86 @ 86.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$561	83.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$38	65.0¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$561 @ 83.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Politics
No$38 @ 65.0¢