0x6bc7…4ad4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6bc74c392c320cfe10d5be61db978a58c8444ad4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+16.9pp

ROI

+84%

Win rate

45% @ 28.6¢

Brier

0.261

Resolved

2503

Avg size

$32

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (117/323)	+101%	323
Politics	13% (7/54)	-19%	54
Geopolitics	20% (8/41)	+31%	41
Sports	9% (1/11)	-89%	11
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other323 bets
Hit rate
36% (117/323)
ROI
+101%
Politics54 bets
Hit rate
13% (7/54)
ROI
-19%
Geopolitics41 bets
Hit rate
20% (8/41)
ROI
+31%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
-89%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 133/432

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	$26	2.7¢	Lost
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	8.1¢	Lost
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	Yes	$0	1.9¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Yes	$4	7.7¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Trump meets with Putin by September 30?	Yes	$0	1.7¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	$27	9.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	Yes	$6	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	$5	1.6¢	Lost
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	Yes	$15	4.4¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$4	1.3¢	Lost
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$90	16.1¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$1.6k	77.0¢	Won
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the highest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?	No	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	No	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$44	61.6¢	Won
Will the US strike Mexico next?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by February 28?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$432	77.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$234	11.7¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	35.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$61	6.3¢	Lost
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	Hooker	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$75	37.5¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$445	28.4¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$12	1.9¢	Lost
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$5	25.9¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	1.3¢	Lost
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?	Yes	$3	1.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$27	34.0¢	Lost
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$538	19.2¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?	Yes	$6	2.4¢	Lost
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?	Yes	$1	12.2¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	No	$1	13.3¢	Lost
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	2.2¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$23	14.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	No	$64	64.0¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?	Yes	$11	57.0¢	Won
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?	Yes	$7	11.0¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$296	13.3¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$6	1.4¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$4	2.2¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?	Yes	$87	18.1¢	Lost

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Lost
No$26 @ 2.7¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.1¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.9¢
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Trump meets with Putin by September 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Lost
Yes$27 @ 9.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Lost
No$5 @ 1.6¢
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Lost
Yes$15 @ 4.4¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.3¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$90 @ 16.1¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 77.0¢
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the highest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?Lost
No$1 @ 25.0¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Won
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Lost
No$1 @ 0.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$44 @ 61.6¢
Will the US strike Mexico next?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
US forces enter Iran by February 28?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$432 @ 77.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$234 @ 11.7¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 35.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$61 @ 6.3¢
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Lost
Hooker$1 @ 23.0¢
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 37.5¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$445 @ 28.4¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.9¢
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 25.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$27 @ 34.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.2¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$538 @ 19.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.4¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.2¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Lost
No$1 @ 13.3¢
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 2.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 14.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Lost
No$64 @ 64.0¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?Won
Yes$11 @ 57.0¢
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$296 @ 13.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.4¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 2.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?Lost
Yes$87 @ 18.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	No	$315	45.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$291	67.7¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$284	62.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$252	28.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$238	39.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$223	61.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$218	68.6¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$214	47.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$180	90.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$132	17.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Politics	No	$118	1.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$83	13.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$82	5.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$80	35.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$76	30.8¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$76	40.0¢
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$52	13.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$48	40.2¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$30	30.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Politics	No	$26	13.0¢
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$23	3.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$21	15.5¢
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	20.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$18	18.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	No	$14	27.0¢
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$13	1.1¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$11	6.4¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$11	9.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Politics	No	$9	2.9¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$3	16.4¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
No$315 @ 45.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$291 @ 67.7¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
No$284 @ 62.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$252 @ 28.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$238 @ 39.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$223 @ 61.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$218 @ 68.6¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$214 @ 47.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$180 @ 90.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$132 @ 17.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Politics
No$118 @ 1.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$83 @ 13.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$82 @ 5.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$80 @ 35.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
No$76 @ 30.8¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$76 @ 40.0¢
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$52 @ 13.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$48 @ 40.2¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Politics
No$26 @ 13.0¢
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$23 @ 3.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$21 @ 15.5¢
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
No$14 @ 27.0¢
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$13 @ 1.1¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$11 @ 6.4¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$11 @ 9.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Politics
No$9 @ 2.9¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$3 @ 16.4¢