0x6bc7…4ad4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6bc74c392c320cfe10d5be61db978a58c8444ad4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+27.9pp

ROI

+170%

Win rate

49% @ 20.8¢

Brier

0.370

Resolved

404

Avg size

$30

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (15/43)	+223%	43
Politics	9% (1/11)	-22%	11
Geopolitics	36% (4/11)	+71%	11
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other43 bets
Hit rate
35% (15/43)
ROI
+223%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
-22%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+71%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

29% hit · 20/68

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US forces enter Iran by February 28?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	35.9¢	Won
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$445	28.4¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$12	1.9¢	Lost
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	2.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$296	13.3¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$4	2.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$15	73.0¢	Lost
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$189	29.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	$249	83.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$265	88.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$228	18.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$857	25.2¢	Won
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	No	$6	0.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$718	5.2¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$975	88.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$166	19.3¢	Lost
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$203	3.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$6	64.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$290	72.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$166	26.4¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)	Ige	$1	30.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	Yes	$129	8.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$77	56.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$171	12.2¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1.9k	81.0¢	Won
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	Yes	$2	6.8¢	Lost
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	No	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	Yes	$2	57.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$15	0.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$1.8k	70.5¢	Lost
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	Yes	$52	26.0¢	Lost
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$46	23.0¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$29	29.0¢	Lost
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$7	3.3¢	Lost
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	No	$3	2.3¢	Lost
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$12	38.6¢	Won
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	$192	48.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$7	4.7¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	$152	15.2¢	Lost

US forces enter Iran by February 28?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 35.9¢
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$445 @ 28.4¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.9¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.2¢
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 2.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$296 @ 13.3¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 2.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 73.0¢
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$189 @ 29.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Won
Yes$249 @ 83.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$265 @ 88.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$228 @ 18.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$857 @ 25.2¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
No$6 @ 0.1¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$718 @ 5.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$975 @ 88.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$166 @ 19.3¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$203 @ 3.2¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$6 @ 64.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$290 @ 72.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$166 @ 26.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)Lost
Ige$1 @ 30.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$129 @ 8.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$77 @ 56.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$171 @ 12.2¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 81.0¢
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.8¢
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?Lost
No$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?Won
Yes$2 @ 57.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$1.8k @ 70.5¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Lost
Yes$26 @ 26.0¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Lost
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 29.0¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 2.3¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 38.6¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Lost
Yes$192 @ 48.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$7 @ 4.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Lost
Yes$152 @ 15.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$248	70.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$223	67.7¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$214	47.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$80	35.8¢
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$52	13.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$47	30.6¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$45	50.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$44	44.0¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$36	10.1¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$32	39.5¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$30	30.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$29	15.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$27	9.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$21	15.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$20	32.2¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Sports	Yes	$20	4.9¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$18	18.0¢
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$16	6.8¢
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	90.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	1.9¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$11	9.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$9	93.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Politics	No	$7	44.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	42.0¢
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$2	1.2¢
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	3.4¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1	1.2¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1	1.4¢

Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
No$248 @ 70.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$223 @ 67.7¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$214 @ 47.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$80 @ 35.8¢
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$52 @ 13.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Politics
Yes$47 @ 30.6¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$45 @ 50.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$44 @ 44.0¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$36 @ 10.1¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$32 @ 39.5¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$29 @ 15.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
Yes$27 @ 9.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$21 @ 15.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics
Yes$20 @ 32.2¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Sports
Yes$20 @ 4.9¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$16 @ 6.8¢
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 90.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 1.9¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$11 @ 9.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$9 @ 93.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics
No$7 @ 44.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 42.0¢
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?Politics
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 3.4¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢