0x6ad8…dbeb

Specialization by sphere

• Other13 bets

  Hit rate

  31% (4/13)

  ROI

  -27%

• Tech11 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (6/11)

  ROI

  +17%

• Politics9 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (5/9)

  ROI

  +33%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (5/6)

  ROI

  +34%

• Economy4 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (2/4)

  ROI

  +47%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +88%

• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$18 @ 38.0¢
• Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Won
  No$17 @ 43.2¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$18 @ 44.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$35 @ 37.1¢
• Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series?Won
  No$17 @ 47.0¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  No$16 @ 38.1¢
• Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Won
  No$15 @ 52.0¢
• Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?Won
  No$16 @ 52.4¢
• Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Lost
  No$16 @ 45.0¢
• Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
  No$16 @ 35.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
  No$3 @ 44.0¢
• Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$16 @ 43.7¢
• Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 46.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
  No$37 @ 44.7¢
• Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?Won
  No$20 @ 66.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Lost
  No$18 @ 35.0¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 43.0¢
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  No$30 @ 50.2¢
• Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$45 @ 89.6¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$18 @ 38.0¢
• Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Lost
  No$16 @ 31.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
  No$19 @ 40.0¢
• SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?Lost
  Down$20 @ 36.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Won
  No$35 @ 43.3¢
• Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 49.0¢
• Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?Lost
  No$18 @ 44.0¢
• Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?Lost
  No$17 @ 42.0¢
• Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Lost
  No$22 @ 57.8¢
• Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
  No$17 @ 48.0¢
• Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 19.8¢
• Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
  No$17 @ 36.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Won
  No$16 @ 53.0¢
• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$18 @ 43.0¢
• Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
  No$36 @ 40.0¢
• Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026Won
  No$18 @ 39.7¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$17 @ 47.0¢
• Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?Lost
  No$17 @ 49.3¢
• Will Kyler Murray be traded?Won
  No$18 @ 57.5¢
• Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?Lost
  No$15 @ 61.0¢
• GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 42.0¢
• Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  No$17 @ 61.3¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Lost
  No$19 @ 36.0¢
• Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$19 @ 38.5¢
• Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  No$30 @ 55.0¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 48.0¢
• Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
  No$35 @ 41.1¢

Current positions

• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$56 @ 93.0¢
• Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$25 @ 84.0¢
• Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?Politics
  No$20 @ 68.0¢
• Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$8 @ 41.0¢