0x6ac0…55f3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6ac0caf622798132614a5972f81d86ff23fc55f3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

58% @ 53.0¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

1149

Avg size

$549

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (113/224)	+4%	224
Politics	64% (61/96)	+13%	96
Sports	51% (25/49)	+12%	49
Geopolitics	69% (9/13)	+31%	13
Tech	71% (5/7)	+56%	7
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+215%	4

Other224 bets
Hit rate
50% (113/224)
ROI
+4%
Politics96 bets
Hit rate
64% (61/96)
ROI
+13%
Sports49 bets
Hit rate
51% (25/49)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
69% (9/13)
ROI
+31%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+56%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+215%

Track record

55% hit · 215/393

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$5	84.4¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$754	72.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$0	3.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$195	3.8¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$171	81.1¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$1.0k	73.0¢	Won
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$1	71.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?	No	$2	72.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$413	16.0¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$3.1k	35.4¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$365	81.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$11	34.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$238	70.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$13.9k	39.2¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$905	79.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$685	51.4¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$2	83.0¢	Won
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	No	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$2	81.4¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$512	39.3¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$1.0k	70.8¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$331	86.4¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$44	65.1¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$350	25.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$26	71.2¢	Lost
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$656	75.4¢	Won
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	Yes	$1	68.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$20	45.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$6.0k	75.1¢	Won
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?	Over	$502	89.6¢	Won
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$7.9k	66.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$5.9k	25.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	3.3¢	Lost
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	$304	59.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$80	74.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	No	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$50	68.0¢	Won
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Seahawks	$1	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$7.7k	61.8¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$285	85.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	No	$866	61.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$328	65.4¢	Won
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$2.9k	87.1¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$909	63.1¢	Lost

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 84.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$754 @ 72.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$195 @ 3.8¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$171 @ 81.1¢
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 73.0¢
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 71.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 72.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$413 @ 16.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$3.1k @ 35.4¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$365 @ 81.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 34.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$238 @ 70.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13.9k @ 39.2¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$905 @ 79.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$685 @ 51.4¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$2 @ 83.0¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Lost
No$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 81.4¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$512 @ 39.3¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 70.8¢
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$331 @ 86.4¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$44 @ 65.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$350 @ 25.7¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 71.2¢
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$656 @ 75.4¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Won
Yes$1 @ 68.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$20 @ 45.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$6.0k @ 75.1¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?Won
Over$502 @ 89.6¢
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$7.9k @ 66.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.9k @ 25.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.3¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceLost
Netherlands$304 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$80 @ 74.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Lost
No$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$50 @ 68.0¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsWon
Seahawks$1 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7.7k @ 61.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$285 @ 85.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Won
No$866 @ 61.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$328 @ 65.4¢
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$2.9k @ 87.1¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$909 @ 63.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$22.8k	22.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$16.4k	41.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2	83.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2	61.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	66.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	72.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	71.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	59.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$1	70.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	82.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	60.0¢

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$22.8k @ 22.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$16.4k @ 41.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 83.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 61.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 66.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 72.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 71.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 59.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$1 @ 70.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 82.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 60.0¢