0x69ac…7b99

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other10 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (8/10)

  ROI

  +21%

• Politics6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  +50%

• Tech5 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (4/5)

  ROI

  +5%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 30.0¢
• Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$43 @ 0.6¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 85.9¢
• Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 73.0¢
• Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?Won
  No$20 @ 70.0¢
• Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$5 @ 72.0¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$20 @ 69.0¢
• Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?Won
  Yes$1 @ 70.0¢
• Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
  Yes$11.1k @ 81.0¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$10 @ 74.0¢
• World Championships: Switzerland vs. FinlandWon
  Finland$2 @ 42.0¢
• World Championships: Switzerland vs. FinlandLost
  Switzerland$3 @ 49.7¢
• Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Won
  Yes$261 @ 87.0¢
• Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Won
  No$340 @ 65.9¢
• Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 25.8¢
• Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 87.2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$3 @ 24.7¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 27.0¢
• Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$6 @ 86.5¢
• Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during WHCA Dinner events?Won
  No$10 @ 88.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 29.0¢
• Ethereum flipped in 2026?Lost
  No$15 @ 59.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
  No$179 @ 56.1¢

Current positions

• Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
  Yes$9.9k @ 1.1¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Economy
  Yes$150 @ 88.0¢
• Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
  Yes$52 @ 0.5¢
• Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Tech
  Yes$28 @ 89.6¢
• Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
  Yes$23 @ 1.0¢
• Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30?Politics
  No$20 @ 92.9¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
  No$20 @ 59.0¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
  No$18 @ 80.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$18 @ 67.0¢
• Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Tech
  No$17 @ 85.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
  Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
• Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027?Crypto
  No$10 @ 88.4¢
• Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Politics
  No$10 @ 97.7¢
• NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
  No$10 @ 95.0¢
• Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
  No$10 @ 91.1¢
• Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
  No$10 @ 92.1¢
• Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$10 @ 92.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$10 @ 93.0¢
• Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?Tech
  No$10 @ 85.0¢
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$10 @ 39.5¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
  No$10 @ 78.0¢
• Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?Tech
  No$10 @ 74.5¢
• OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
  No$10 @ 71.0¢
• Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
  Yes$10 @ 5.8¢
• Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
  Yes$5 @ 36.0¢