0x695c…10a1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x695c1dbc0cf3d4758c8879ea5139c1615d9310a1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+10.8pp

ROI

+45%

Win rate

37% @ 25.7¢

Brier

0.222

Resolved

3377

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (314/715)	+38%	715
Politics	49% (56/115)	+126%	115
Tech	38% (10/26)	-43%	26
Geopolitics	59% (10/17)	+231%	17
Crypto	9% (1/11)	-89%	11
Culture	67% (4/6)	+39%	6
Economy	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Business	50% (1/2)	+71%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other715 bets
Hit rate
44% (314/715)
ROI
+38%
Politics115 bets
Hit rate
49% (56/115)
ROI
+126%
Tech26 bets
Hit rate
38% (10/26)
ROI
-43%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
+231%
Crypto11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
-89%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+39%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+71%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 396/898

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$18	40.0¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$250	23.3¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$100	22.8¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$18	46.0¢	Won
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$54	37.9¢	Lost
Canada recession before 2027?	No	$103	17.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$275	22.3¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?	No	$10	24.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	No	$45	36.8¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$168	28.1¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$23	42.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$60	12.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$484	32.5¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$47	39.5¢	Lost
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?	No	$12	18.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?	No	$18	48.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$2	35.0¢	Won
Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	No	$34	17.9¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	No	$12	33.6¢	Won
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$4	14.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	No	$21	35.0¢	Won
Will @drews888 win the Phoenix trading competition?	No	$10	1.3¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$45	26.5¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$12	33.6¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	$22	2.8¢	Lost
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?	No	$5	43.0¢	Won
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	44.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?	No	$97	16.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?	Yes	$15	35.1¢	Won
Will Gabriela Saporito win Big Brother Brasil 26?	No	$10	41.0¢	Won
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?	Yes	$25	36.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$323	24.5¢	Won
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	35.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$62	36.8¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	No	$1	25.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	Yes	$9	28.7¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$216	28.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$18	25.3¢	Won
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	46.7¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	$5	1.3¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	$57	34.8¢	Lost
Kash Patel out by March 31?	No	$13	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?	No	$3	8.0¢	Won
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	No	$22	19.4¢	Lost
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$81	33.5¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in February?	No	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?	No	$135	18.1¢	Lost

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$18 @ 40.0¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$250 @ 23.3¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$100 @ 22.8¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 46.0¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 37.9¢
Canada recession before 2027?Lost
No$103 @ 17.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$275 @ 22.3¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 24.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 36.8¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$168 @ 28.1¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$23 @ 42.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 12.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$484 @ 32.5¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$47 @ 39.5¢
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?Lost
No$12 @ 18.8¢
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?Won
No$18 @ 48.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$2 @ 35.0¢
Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Won
No$34 @ 17.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 33.6¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
No$13 @ 25.0¢
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
No$4 @ 14.0¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 35.0¢
Will @drews888 win the Phoenix trading competition?Lost
No$10 @ 1.3¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$45 @ 26.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$12 @ 33.6¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$22 @ 2.8¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?Won
No$5 @ 43.0¢
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 44.0¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Lost
No$97 @ 16.0¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 35.1¢
Will Gabriela Saporito win Big Brother Brasil 26?Won
No$10 @ 41.0¢
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 36.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$323 @ 24.5¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 35.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$62 @ 36.8¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 25.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 28.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$216 @ 28.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 25.3¢
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Lost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 46.7¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Lost
No$5 @ 1.3¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$57 @ 34.8¢
Kash Patel out by March 31?Won
No$13 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?Won
No$3 @ 8.0¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?Lost
No$22 @ 19.4¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$81 @ 33.5¢
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in February?Lost
No$90 @ 9.0¢
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?Lost
No$135 @ 18.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	Tech	No	$11	20.0¢

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?Tech
No$11 @ 20.0¢