0x68a3…ab05

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x68a3f3f8cd0787e39a6f684a157c159acf23ab05
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.6pp

ROI

+327%

Win rate

20% @ 8.4¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

100

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	16% (6/37)	+330%	37
Politics	11% (3/27)	+387%	27
Geopolitics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6

Other37 bets
Hit rate
16% (6/37)
ROI
+330%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
11% (3/27)
ROI
+387%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%

Track record

13% hit · 9/70

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$1	1.8¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$33	36.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on August 7?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on September 17?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 8?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20?	No	$18	3.3¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$2	9.3¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$1	6.8¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 18?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 20?	Yes	$2	3.7¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$30	17.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?	No	$1	4.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18?	No	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$9	2.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$15	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$1	39.0¢	Won
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?	No	$12	17.0¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 21?	Yes	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$17	19.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on September 3?	No	$4	0.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on September 3?	Yes	$1	4.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?	Yes	$22	25.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 1?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on September 19?	Yes	$12	10.6¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	$12	9.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 18?	No	$1	1.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?	No	$1	5.1¢	Lost
Will Iran target Syria by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	11.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 18?	No	$13	30.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on August 30?	Yes	$9	3.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 19?	Yes	$5	2.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?	Yes	$28	5.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	7.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$1	2.9¢	Lost

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$1 @ 1.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$33 @ 36.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on August 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on September 17?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20?Lost
No$18 @ 3.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$2 @ 9.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 20?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$30 @ 17.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Lost
No$1 @ 2.5¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?Lost
No$1 @ 4.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18?Lost
No$2 @ 2.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$15 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$1 @ 39.0¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?Lost
No$12 @ 17.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 18?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$17 @ 19.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on September 3?Won
No$4 @ 0.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on September 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?Lost
Yes$22 @ 25.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$5 @ 14.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on September 19?Lost
Yes$12 @ 10.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Lost
No$12 @ 9.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 18?Lost
No$1 @ 1.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?Lost
No$1 @ 5.1¢
Will Iran target Syria by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 18?Lost
No$13 @ 30.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on August 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 19?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?Lost
Yes$28 @ 5.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$1 @ 2.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	44.8¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$30	13.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$13	15.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$10	10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	14.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	10.0¢
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$10	5.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	7.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	No	$5	7.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	5.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	5.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?	Politics	Yes	$3	8.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$3	7.1¢
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	10.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?	Politics	Yes	$2	0.2¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	8.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Politics	Yes	$2	1.2¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	6.3¢
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	8.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 23?	Crypto	No	$1	1.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	8.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	2.0¢
Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Politics	No	$1	3.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	6.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.4¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	3.9¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.1¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.7¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.7¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 44.8¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$30 @ 13.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Politics
Yes$13 @ 15.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 14.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Politics
Yes$10 @ 5.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 7.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
No$5 @ 7.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 5.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?Politics
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$3 @ 7.1¢
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 10.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?Politics
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?Politics
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 6.3¢
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 23?Crypto
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Politics
No$1 @ 3.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢