0x6854…67d0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x68540c38878781e28add4857f7574802ddcd67d0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.3pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

60% @ 49.4¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

149

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (64/153)	+3%	153
Science	40% (25/63)	-31%	63
Sports	75% (9/12)	+51%	12
Politics	58% (7/12)	+0%	12
Economy	13% (1/8)	-81%	8
Culture	67% (2/3)	+48%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+79%	2

Other153 bets
Hit rate
42% (64/153)
ROI
+3%
Science63 bets
Hit rate
40% (25/63)
ROI
-31%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+51%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
+0%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
-81%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+48%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+79%

Track record

43% hit · 109/253

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?	No	$24	59.2¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22?	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21?	No	$0	75.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 21?	No	$2	37.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21?	No	$2	24.0¢	Lost
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	$30	20.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?	No	$24	27.1¢	Lost
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$7	63.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20?	No	$5	68.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?	No	$6	82.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?	No	$6	77.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?	No	$10	16.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21?	No	$6	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23?	No	$7	20.8¢	Lost
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07?	No	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?	No	$3	68.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?	No	$2	30.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 22?	No	$1	77.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21?	No	$4	76.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?	No	$4	50.0¢	Won
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?	No	$42	66.0¢	Won
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?	No	$6	89.1¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 2?	No	$9	89.1¢	Won
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?	No	$17	80.5¢	Won
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$55	85.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?	No	$4	51.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23?	No	$3	8.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?	No	$6	22.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21?	No	$9	75.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?	No	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23?	No	$31	85.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21?	No	$5	74.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24?	No	$3	40.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?	No	$9	18.5¢	Lost
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Draw at halftime?	No	$3	57.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24?	No	$3	50.0¢	Won
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$13	17.0¢	Lost
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	$9	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24?	No	$13	23.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 21?	No	$4	64.0¢	Won
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	$55	69.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23?	No	$17	87.0¢	Won
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$64	79.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21?	No	$24	64.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21?	No	$13	71.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21?	No	$12	48.0¢	Won
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 22?	No	$0	29.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22?	No	$7	70.9¢	Won

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?Won
No$24 @ 59.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22?Lost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21?Won
No$0 @ 75.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 21?Lost
No$2 @ 37.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21?Lost
No$2 @ 24.0¢
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?Won
No$30 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?Lost
No$24 @ 27.1¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$7 @ 63.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20?Won
No$5 @ 68.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?Won
No$6 @ 82.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?Won
No$6 @ 77.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?Lost
No$10 @ 16.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21?Won
No$6 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23?Lost
No$7 @ 20.8¢
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07?Lost
No$2 @ 3.0¢
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?Won
No$3 @ 68.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?Won
No$2 @ 30.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 22?Won
No$1 @ 77.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21?Won
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?Won
No$4 @ 50.0¢
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?Won
No$42 @ 66.0¢
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?Won
No$6 @ 89.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 2?Won
No$9 @ 89.1¢
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?Won
No$17 @ 80.5¢
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$55 @ 85.7¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?Won
No$4 @ 51.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23?Lost
No$3 @ 8.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?Lost
No$6 @ 22.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21?Won
No$9 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?Lost
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23?Lost
No$31 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21?Won
No$5 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24?Lost
No$3 @ 40.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?Lost
No$9 @ 18.5¢
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Draw at halftime?Lost
No$3 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24?Won
No$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$13 @ 17.0¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
No$9 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24?Won
No$13 @ 23.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 21?Won
No$4 @ 64.0¢
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open?Won
No$55 @ 69.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23?Won
No$17 @ 87.0¢
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$64 @ 79.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21?Lost
No$24 @ 64.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21?Won
No$13 @ 71.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21?Won
No$12 @ 48.0¢
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 22?Lost
No$0 @ 29.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22?Won
No$7 @ 70.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?	—	No	$29	96.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $512,000 on September 30?	—	Yes	$17	14.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30?	—	Yes	$17	14.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?	—	Yes	$17	14.3¢
Will Patrick Ball – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?	—	No	$16	79.0¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30?	—	Yes	$13	14.3¢
Will The Grammys win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?	—	Yes	$12	20.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $2.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$11	8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$11	8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$11	8.3¢
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	—	No	$11	57.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?	—	No	$11	95.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$10	29.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	Politics	Yes	$10	20.0¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$9	47.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$9	8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$8	8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$8	8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$8	8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$7	8.3¢
Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?	—	No	$7	14.4¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$7	8.3¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	No	$6	21.1¢
Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	—	Yes	$6	25.0¢
Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	—	Yes	$6	25.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $1.50 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	14.3¢

Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?—
No$29 @ 96.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $512,000 on September 30?—
Yes$17 @ 14.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30?—
Yes$17 @ 14.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?—
Yes$17 @ 14.3¢
Will Patrick Ball – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?—
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30?—
Yes$13 @ 14.3¢
Will The Grammys win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?—
Yes$12 @ 20.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $2.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$11 @ 8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$11 @ 8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$11 @ 8.3¢
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?—
No$11 @ 57.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?—
No$11 @ 95.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?Politics
No$10 @ 29.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$9 @ 47.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$9 @ 8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$8 @ 8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$8 @ 8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$8 @ 8.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$7 @ 8.3¢
Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?—
No$7 @ 14.4¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$7 @ 8.3¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
No$6 @ 21.1¢
Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?—
Yes$6 @ 25.0¢
Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?—
Yes$6 @ 25.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $1.50 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 14.3¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 14.3¢