0x6770…45fb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6770bf688b8121331b1c5cfd7723ebd4152545fb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

39% @ 34.1¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

2963

Avg size

$79

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (291/588)	-5%	588
Politics	43% (36/83)	+26%	83
Sports	21% (5/24)	-55%	24
Geopolitics	59% (10/17)	+7%	17
Tech	67% (2/3)	-5%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+64%	3
Culture	100% (2/2)	+32%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other588 bets
Hit rate
49% (291/588)
ROI
-5%
Politics83 bets
Hit rate
43% (36/83)
ROI
+26%
Sports24 bets
Hit rate
21% (5/24)
ROI
-55%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
+7%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-5%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+64%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+32%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 348/721

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$1.9k	62.3¢	Lost
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$305	30.5¢	Lost
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?	Yes	$390	39.0¢	Lost
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Morocco	$43	21.5¢	Lost
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Emerson Jones	Emerson Jones	$5	29.0¢	Lost
AC Monza vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$8	51.0¢	Lost
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	$14	21.3¢	Lost
Will SC Braga win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	Spain	$588	58.8¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$9	58.0¢	Lost
Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Manchester City FC O/U 3.5	Over	$8	22.3¢	Lost
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Lost
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$2.3k	45.2¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$1.1k	45.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	71.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$510	34.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	54.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	$4.9k	98.4¢	Won
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	$224	68.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$247	42.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	$4	18.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$640	64.0¢	Lost
Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2027?	Yes	$310	84.4¢	Won
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$45	9.0¢	Lost
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$78	15.6¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$529	37.0¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	Gen.G	$4	1.0¢	Lost
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	No	$61	95.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$110	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	$45	73.8¢	Won
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Bilibili Gaming	$333	12.7¢	Lost
Will Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?	No	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?	Yes	$93	76.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$66	32.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Border" 4+ times during the Fox News interview on July 12?	Yes	$28	61.0¢	Won
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$4	0.9¢	Lost
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$308	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president on August 25?	No	$30	59.0¢	Lost
Will Good Job Nicky win Sing for Greece 2026?	Yes	$112	15.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	Yes	$27	20.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 7+ times during his AI speech on July 23?	Yes	$35	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?	No	$275	60.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$57	62.4¢	Won
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?	Yes	$151	54.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pete" or "Hegseth" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	No	$10	8.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pete" or "Hegseth" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	Yes	$273	79.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$17	65.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Biden" 5+ times during the next press briefing?	Yes	$3	52.0¢	Won

Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 62.3¢
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
No$305 @ 30.5¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Lost
Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
France vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceLost
Morocco$43 @ 21.5¢
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Emerson JonesLost
Emerson Jones$5 @ 29.0¢
AC Monza vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$8 @ 51.0¢
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-22?Lost
Yes$14 @ 21.3¢
Will SC Braga win on 2026-08-16?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$588 @ 58.8¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$9 @ 58.0¢
Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Manchester City FC O/U 3.5Lost
Over$8 @ 22.3¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
No$2.3k @ 45.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$1.1k @ 45.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$510 @ 34.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 54.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Won
No$4.9k @ 98.4¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Lost
Yes$224 @ 68.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$247 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?Lost
No$4 @ 18.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$640 @ 64.0¢
Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2027?Won
Yes$310 @ 84.4¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$45 @ 9.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$78 @ 15.6¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$529 @ 37.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 WinnerLost
Gen.G$4 @ 1.0¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Lost
No$61 @ 95.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$110 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Won
No$45 @ 73.8¢
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendLost
Bilibili Gaming$333 @ 12.7¢
Will Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?Won
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Will Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?Lost
Yes$93 @ 76.0¢
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$66 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump say "Border" 4+ times during the Fox News interview on July 12?Won
Yes$28 @ 61.0¢
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Czechia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$308 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president on August 25?Lost
No$30 @ 59.0¢
Will Good Job Nicky win Sing for Greece 2026?Lost
Yes$112 @ 15.1¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Lost
Yes$27 @ 20.5¢
Will Trump say "China" 7+ times during his AI speech on July 23?Won
Yes$35 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?Won
No$275 @ 60.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$57 @ 62.4¢
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Won
Yes$151 @ 54.5¢
Will Trump say "Pete" or "Hegseth" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Won
No$10 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump say "Pete" or "Hegseth" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Lost
Yes$273 @ 79.1¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$17 @ 65.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Biden" 5+ times during the next press briefing?Won
Yes$3 @ 52.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.3k	93.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$2.3k	45.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.7k	95.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$663	58.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$640	64.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$587	66.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$547	18.1¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$421	19.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$362	45.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$339	32.0¢
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	Yes	$334	38.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$305	27.0¢
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?	Politics	Yes	$296	86.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$290	77.4¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$265	21.9¢
Will Kyriakos Velopoulos be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	No	$263	90.6¢
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$209	41.0¢
Will Zoe Konstantopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	No	$206	83.5¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs	—	Team Spirit	$185	37.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$141	37.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$138	27.6¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$125	2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$124	47.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$115	23.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$115	65.2¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$98	38.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$91	28.0¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Politics	No	$61	95.2¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$56	5.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$54	12.2¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$4.3k @ 93.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$2.3k @ 45.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.7k @ 95.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$663 @ 58.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$640 @ 64.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$587 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$547 @ 18.1¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$421 @ 19.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$362 @ 45.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$339 @ 32.0¢
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
Yes$334 @ 38.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$305 @ 27.0¢
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?Politics
Yes$296 @ 86.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$290 @ 77.4¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$265 @ 21.9¢
Will Kyriakos Velopoulos be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
No$263 @ 90.6¢
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?Politics
Yes$209 @ 41.0¢
Will Zoe Konstantopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
No$206 @ 83.5¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs—
Team Spirit$185 @ 37.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$141 @ 37.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$138 @ 27.6¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$125 @ 2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$124 @ 47.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$115 @ 23.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$115 @ 65.2¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?Geopolitics
Yes$98 @ 38.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Politics
Yes$91 @ 28.0¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Politics
No$61 @ 95.2¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$56 @ 5.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Politics
Yes$54 @ 12.2¢