0x671a…2f1e

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics366 bets

  Hit rate

  31% (113/366)

  ROI

  -13%

• Sports338 bets

  Hit rate

  30% (102/338)

  ROI

  +2%

• Other227 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (131/227)

  ROI

  +12%

• Tech75 bets

  Hit rate

  23% (17/75)

  ROI

  -13%

• Culture37 bets

  Hit rate

  27% (10/37)

  ROI

  -42%

• Economy23 bets

  Hit rate

  43% (10/23)

  ROI

  +11%

• Geopolitics13 bets

  Hit rate

  31% (4/13)

  ROI

  -6%

• Business8 bets

  Hit rate

  25% (2/8)

  ROI

  -31%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +50%

• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  No$2.2k @ 58.2¢
• Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$138 @ 76.3¢
• Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Won
  No$159 @ 32.2¢
• Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$13 @ 35.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$84 @ 55.1¢
• Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$96 @ 33.5¢
• Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?Lost
  No$54 @ 66.8¢
• Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
  No$602 @ 57.4¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
  No$42 @ 70.7¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?Won
  No$146 @ 50.5¢
• Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  No$15 @ 80.0¢
• Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Won
  No$19 @ 75.3¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
  No$87 @ 58.1¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$67 @ 88.8¢
• Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Lost
  No$48 @ 21.5¢
• Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
  No$3.6k @ 71.4¢
• Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Lost
  No$62 @ 6.5¢
• Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Won
  Yes$28 @ 80.0¢
• Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?Lost
  No$29 @ 15.9¢
• Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?Lost
  No$16 @ 21.7¢
• Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?Won
  Yes$3 @ 39.0¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  No$9 @ 85.7¢
• Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Won
  No$13 @ 62.0¢
• Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Won
  No$104 @ 77.2¢
• Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?Won
  No$9 @ 86.0¢
• Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Won
  No$5 @ 47.6¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
  No$4 @ 10.0¢
• Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?Lost
  No$14 @ 37.9¢
• Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?Won
  Yes$21 @ 53.0¢
• Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Lost
  No$2 @ 1.9¢
• Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 24m?Lost
  No$8 @ 20.0¢
• Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
  No$15 @ 57.8¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Lost
  No$385 @ 83.3¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$4 @ 27.3¢
• Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
  No$39 @ 50.0¢
• Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  No$3 @ 18.0¢
• Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
  No$302 @ 34.8¢
• Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
  No$2 @ 7.9¢
• Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 74.0¢
• Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
  No$167 @ 68.1¢
• Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?Won
  No$166 @ 83.4¢
• Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 14.4¢
• Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
  No$23 @ 35.3¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
  No$3 @ 7.0¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  No$685 @ 22.6¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
  Yes$25 @ 83.3¢
• No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
  No$0 @ 0.2¢
• Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?Lost
  No$33 @ 37.8¢
• Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?Won
  Yes$14 @ 65.0¢
• Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
  No$16 @ 1.7¢

Current positions

• Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$828 @ 96.0¢
• Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$821 @ 99.1¢
• Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$787 @ 99.2¢
• Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$786 @ 99.1¢
• Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$785 @ 99.0¢
• Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$785 @ 99.0¢
• Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$784 @ 98.9¢
• Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$783 @ 98.8¢
• Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$782 @ 98.6¢
• Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$768 @ 96.9¢
• Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$760 @ 99.6¢
• Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$758 @ 99.4¢
• Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$758 @ 99.3¢
• Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$757 @ 99.2¢
• Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$737 @ 93.0¢
• Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$717 @ 94.0¢
• Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$626 @ 79.0¢
• Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$529 @ 97.6¢
• Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$509 @ 59.0¢
• Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$137 @ 96.8¢
• Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
  No$128 @ 94.8¢
• Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
  No$118 @ 98.2¢
• Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
  No$98 @ 98.4¢
• Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
  No$97 @ 96.7¢
• Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
  No$97 @ 96.5¢
• Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
  No$90 @ 97.4¢
• Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
  No$73 @ 72.5¢
• Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Sports
  No$64 @ 99.0¢
• Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Sports
  No$64 @ 98.4¢
• Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Sports
  No$63 @ 97.5¢