0x6548…9108

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x65484b65936fae40b0d4982479b29320b85e9108
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.8pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

50% @ 47.0¢

Brier

0.123

Resolved

2256

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (212/413)	+3%	413
Politics	53% (31/58)	+24%	58
Sports	43% (3/7)	-69%	7
Culture	25% (1/4)	-69%	4
Science	100% (1/1)	+98%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+23%	1

Other413 bets
Hit rate
51% (212/413)
ROI
+3%
Politics58 bets
Hit rate
53% (31/58)
ROI
+24%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-69%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-69%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+98%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%

Track record

51% hit · 249/484

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 1?	No	$72	89.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 1?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 30?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 30?	No	$109	98.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?	Yes	$18	22.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$32	54.2¢	Won
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	1.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1?	Yes	$16	32.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4?	No	$316	73.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?	No	$102	85.2¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September meeting?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 23?	No	$26	87.5¢	Won
Trump x Xi talk before July?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Won
French election called by October 10?	No	$42	42.4¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$7	35.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 6?	No	$42	85.0¢	Won
Next French confidence vote passes?	Yes	$4	14.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?	Yes	$2	1.6¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$76	17.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?	Yes	$23	46.0¢	Won
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?	No	$20	9.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$8	16.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?	Yes	$24	40.7¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	No	$11	54.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?	Yes	$11	18.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 18?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
US kicks trans members out of military before July?	Yes	$6	61.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?	Yes	$12	17.9¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?	Yes	$83	75.7¢	Lost
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?	No	$26	58.0¢	Won
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?	No	$25	35.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 15?	No	$89	83.4¢	Won
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Yes	$2	3.3¢	Lost
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	Yes	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18?	No	$150	85.8¢	Won
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$27	76.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?	No	$4	72.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	Yes	$18	45.7¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	Yes	$46	32.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 24?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	No	$17	67.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	No	$75	22.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	Yes	$8	39.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 25?	No	$74	68.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	No	$16	82.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 12?	No	$24	81.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 23?	Yes	$7	8.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 1?Won
No$72 @ 89.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 1?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 30?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 30?Won
No$109 @ 98.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$18 @ 22.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$32 @ 54.2¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1?Lost
Yes$16 @ 32.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4?Won
No$316 @ 73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?Won
No$102 @ 85.2¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 23?Won
No$26 @ 87.5¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
French election called by October 10?Won
No$42 @ 42.4¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 6?Won
No$42 @ 85.0¢
Next French confidence vote passes?Lost
Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$76 @ 17.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?Won
Yes$23 @ 46.0¢
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?Lost
No$20 @ 9.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$8 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?Lost
Yes$24 @ 40.7¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?Lost
No$11 @ 54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?Won
Yes$11 @ 18.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Lost
Yes$6 @ 61.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?Lost
Yes$12 @ 17.9¢
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?Lost
Yes$83 @ 75.7¢
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Won
No$26 @ 58.0¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?Won
No$25 @ 35.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 15?Won
No$89 @ 83.4¢
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.3¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Won
Yes$16 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18?Won
No$150 @ 85.8¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$27 @ 76.0¢
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?Won
No$4 @ 72.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Lost
Yes$18 @ 45.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Won
Yes$46 @ 32.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?Won
No$17 @ 67.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Lost
No$75 @ 22.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Won
Yes$8 @ 39.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 25?Won
No$74 @ 68.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Won
No$16 @ 82.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 12?Won
No$24 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 23?Lost
Yes$7 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Economy	No	$24	80.0¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	52.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$17	83.0¢
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$16	2.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Other	Yes	$14	22.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Other	Yes	$13	12.5¢
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$8	1.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$6	32.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$6	7.7¢
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.2¢

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Economy
No$24 @ 80.0¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 52.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$17 @ 83.0¢
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$16 @ 2.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Other
Yes$14 @ 22.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Other
Yes$13 @ 12.5¢
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 1.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$6 @ 32.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$6 @ 7.7¢
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢